Translator Disclaimer
1 September 2005 Forecasting Regional to Global Plant Migration in Response to Climate Change
Author Affiliations +
Abstract

The rate of future climate change is likely to exceed the migration rates of most plant species. The replacement of dominant species by locally rare species may require decades, and extinctions may occur when plant species cannot migrate fast enough to escape the consequences of climate change. Such lags may impair ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and clean water production. Thus, to assess global change, simulation of plant migration and local vegetation change by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) is critical, yet fraught with challenges. Global vegetation models cannot simulate all species, necessitating their aggregation into plant functional types (PFTs). Yet most PFTs encompass the full spectrum of migration rates. Migration processes span scales of time and space far beyond what can be confidently simulated in DGVMs. Theories about climate change and migration are limited by inadequate data for key processes at short and long time scales and at small and large spatial scales. These theories must be enhanced to incorporate species-level migration and succession processes into a more comprehensive definition of PFTs.

RONALD P. NEILSON, LOUIS F. PITELKA, ALLEN M. SOLOMON, RAN NATHAN, GUY F. MIDGLEY, JÓSE M. V. FRAGOSO, HEIKE LISCHKE, and KEN THOMPSON "Forecasting Regional to Global Plant Migration in Response to Climate Change," BioScience 55(9), (1 September 2005). https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0749:FRTGPM]2.0.CO;2
Published: 1 September 2005
JOURNAL ARTICLE
11 PAGES

This article is only available to subscribers.
It is not available for individual sale.
+ SAVE TO MY LIBRARY

SHARE
ARTICLE IMPACT
RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS
Get copyright permission
Back to Top