A regression model was developed to predict the flight activity of Acrosternum hilare (Say) using data on the number of adults collected in a single black light trap located in Painter, VA, in the 18-yr period from 1990 to 2007. Eighteen initial weather variables, including cumulative precipitation over different time periods, mean monthly precipitation (PJA) and days below freezing (DFJA) from January to April, and mean monthly temperatures from December to April were tested in developing the regression model. Mixed (backward and forward) stepwise regression analysis showed that a two-variable model using PJA and DFJA was adequate for predicting the seasonal mean weekly number of A. hilare adults in the trap. Validation of the model using five independent black light trap data sets resulted in a strong correlation (r = 0.98) between observed and predicted mean weekly number of A. hilare adults caught in traps. Three peaks in flights of A. hilare adults were observed when mean trap catch was plotted over time for the 18-yr period. Peaks occurred at 319, 892, and 1,331 degree days (DD) from 1 January. Based on known developmental rates, the first peak was attributed to overwintered adults, the second to first-generation adults, and the third to a second generation of adults. This research suggests that A. hilare undergoes two complete generations in Virginia. Cumulative trap catch estimated from the 18-yr mean trap catch showed that 10, 50, and 90% of the total seasonal catch should occur by 153, 501, and 1,066 DD.
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