Evaluation of the Bayesian Method to Derive Migration Patterns from Changes in Surname Distributions Over Time

Gerrit Bloothooft; Pierre Darlu

doi:10.3378/027.085.0403

Translator Disclaimer

1 August 2013 Evaluation of the Bayesian Method to Derive Migration Patterns from Changes in Surname Distributions Over Time

Gerrit Bloothooft, Pierre Darlu

Author Affiliations +

Human Biology, 85(4):553-568 (2013). https://doi.org/10.3378/027.085.0403

Abstract

Known migration in The Netherlands between the periods 1950– 1969 and 2007, for 4.5 million individuals, was used to estimate the origin of migration by means of a Bayesian method on the basis of surname distributions in these two periods. Results of the method depend on the geographic specificity of the surnames and tend to be positioned between population density and actual probability of migration origin. An optimum in the correlation between estimated and actual percentages of origin of migration, and their differentiation as expressed by the correlation between the estimated and actual entropy across 40 distinguished areas, was found after a few iterations. The optimal correlation was 0.806 (Spearman), which shows that the Bayesian method provides a reasonable proxy of the rank order of a migrant's origin.

Citation Download Citation

Gerrit Bloothooft and Pierre Darlu "Evaluation of the Bayesian Method to Derive Migration Patterns from Changes in Surname Distributions Over Time," Human Biology 85(4), (1 August 2013). https://doi.org/10.3378/027.085.0403

Received: 22 February 2013; Accepted: 1 May 2013; Published: 1 August 2013

ACCESS THE FULL ARTICLE

PERSONAL SIGN IN
Full access may be available with your subscription

Password Forgot your password?

Show

Remember Email on this computer

Remember Password

No BioOne Complete account? Create an account
or Access Institutional Sign In via Shibboleth or OpenAthens

PURCHASE THIS CONTENT

PURCHASE SINGLE ARTICLE

Price: $15.00 ADD TO CART

Includes PDF & HTML, when available

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

KEYWORDS/PHRASES

PUBLICATION TITLE:

PUBLICATION YEARS