The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of dengue and is common throughout tropical and subtropical regions. Its distribution is modulated by environmental factors, such as temperature. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of temperature on the life cycle and expansion of Ae. aegypti populations in the cities of Campina Grande, João Pessoa, and Patos. Samples of Ae. aegypti were collected in the three cities and raised in the laboratory. We assessed the life cycles of the three Ae. aegypti populations under six constant temperatures (16, 22, 28, 33, 36, and 39° C), selected on the basis of historical temperature tendencies of each city. We also used existing climate data to calculate projected temperature increases for all three areas. Our results suggest that Campina Grande, João Pessoa, and Patos will experience, respectively, maximum temperature increases of 0.030° C/year, 0.069° C/year, and 0.061° C/year, and minimum temperature increases of 0.019° C/year, -0.047° C/year, and -0.086° C/year. These projected increases will result in temperatures favorable to the Ae. aegypti life cycle, causing rapid population growth. Therefore, Ae. aegypti populations are likely to expand in the mesoregions represented by these cities.
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Vol. 41 • No. 1