Many studies have examined the effects of forest fragmentation and management on songbird nesting success, but few have quantified postfledging survival, which is a critical component of population productivity. In 2005–2006, we estimated daily postfledging survival of Rose-breasted Grosbeaks (Pheucticus ludovicianus) by radiotracking 42 fledglings in forest fragments that had been managed by single-tree selection, by diameter-limit harvest, or as reference (not harvested for at least 25 years). Survival probability over the 3-week fledgling period was 0.62, and 86% of total fledgling mortality occurred during the first week out of the nest. Despite large differences in forest structure between forest management treatments, there was no effect of forest treatment on fledgling survival. Date of fledging, shrub cover, and patch size also had limited influence on fledgling survival. For all sites combined, females produced an estimated 0.23–0.37 recruiting daughters per year for the worst- and best-case scenarios of female fecundity and annual juvenile survival, which is lower than the expected annual mortality rate of breeding females (0.40–0.55). Even reference sites did not produce enough offspring to offset annual female mortality, which suggests that forest fragments in this region are population sinks.
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