I analyzed the relationship between spring temperature and arrival date for 105 species using over 32,000 arrival records of migratory breeding birds in Maine collected by a volunteer network between 1994 and 2005. I used quantile regression analysis, testing three different quantiles (0.1, 0.25, 0.5). Only 69 of 315 regressions yielded a significant negative relationship. Five species showed significant regressions for all three quantiles and 15 showed significant regressions for two quantiles. Quantile regressions of arrival date with a hemispheric measure of climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation index, produced only 63 statistically significant regressions for the three quantiles. Seven species and 12 species had significant regressions with three and two quantiles, respectively. Overall, 60 species had at least one significant relationship with a climatic variable. These results indicate the arrival dates of most migratory breeding birds in Maine show a modest relationship with the significant temperature variability seen over the 12-year study period. The data suggest the response of migratory birds in Maine to global warming impacts will be a gradual process.
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Vol. 119 • No. 4