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1 June 2008 Correlation of Climatic Factors and Dengue Incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines
Glenn L. Sia Su
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Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila, Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change; however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors. This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005. Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10-y period (1996–2005). Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis. A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X), which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r2 = 0.377, p < 0.05). No significant correlation between dengue incidence and temperature was established (p > 0.05). Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns. Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended.

Glenn L. Sia Su "Correlation of Climatic Factors and Dengue Incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines," AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 37(4), 292-294, (1 June 2008).[292:COCFAD]2.0.CO;2
Received: 30 January 2007; Accepted: 1 October 2007; Published: 1 June 2008

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