The Colorado potato beetle (CPB), a serious pest of potato, is currently spreading north in Europe. We investigated the risk of CPB establishment in Finland and control methods for the case when beetle life history characters change due to global warming or as an adaptation to colder climate. Analysis with a spatially explicit simulation model supported the current management policy in Finland (efficient eradication and one year field quarantine) but changes in CPB viability, such as decreased winter mortality or increased number of offspring would render them inefficient. Longer quarantine times would be needed to effectively prevent the CPB establishment and spread. As an option we investigated Bt-potato cultivation integrated to other control methods and found that it was already efficient when used as a sole strategy but its benefits may be reduced by the adaptability of the Colorado potato beetle.
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Vol. 45 • No. 1