The Mexican lepidopteran fauna is particularly diverse, but many moth groups remain poorly documented. The tribe Arctiini is a species-rich group that has been used as a reliable indicator of environmental change. However, little is known about the fauna of the tribe Arctiini in Mexico, and there is no exhaustive review of its diversity and distribution patterns. Our aims were: 1) to account for the species diversity and distribution patterns of the tribe Arctiini; 2) to build spatial distributions and discuss possible changes in the distribution areas of the tribe Arctiini using conservative (RCP 2.6) and liberal (RCP 8.5) future climate scenarios; and 3) to discuss the conservation implications for key taxa that due to their life history characteristics and restricted distribution, might require particular conservation actions. We compiled a total of 16,385 records and 548 species in seven subtribes. Diversity profiles revealed higher cumulative species richness and diversity for the subtribes Phaegopterina, Ctenuchina, and Euchromiina, and we identified a pattern of decreasing species diversity with elevation. In addition, we estimated that 35% and 84% of modeled species in future conservative and liberal climatic scenarios, respectively, would result in significant losses of climatic suitability and shifts in spatial distribution. The endemic species, Virbia semirosea, Poliopastea jalapensis, and Pygoctenucha azteca would likely reduce their distribution by approximately 50% in both climatic scenarios. Maintaining a network of highly threatened habitats (e.g., cloud forests, tropical rain forests) will be essential to preserve persisting species populations and to increase likely (re)colonization events.
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