Our understanding of recent extinctions and declines of Australian mammals is poor, particularly where there is a paucity of data to quantify change. The swamp antechinus (A. m. maritimus) has a fragmented, coastal distribution in south-east Australia. Although long-term studies (1975–2007) of this vulnerable species were conducted in the eastern Otways, its current status was unclear. We assessed the success of live trapping and camera trapping (2013–17) at 42 sites, 19 where the species was trapped previously. Between 2013 and 2015 A. m. maritimus was recorded at only 6 sites (n = 8), but at none in 2016–17. Assessment of long-term changes found that high-density populations occurred after above-average rainfall, and both low- and high-density populations collapsed after wildfire, after low rainfall, and in fragmented habitat. The species may now be restricted to very small populations in refuges such as coastal dunes, and predicted low rainfall and increased burning frequency pose major threats to the species’ survival. Recovery is unlikely without targeted management, including predator control and protection from inappropriate fire regimes and habitat fragmentation. If similar declines have been experienced across the species’ range, prevention of extinction of the species will require similar management strategies.