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15 December 2022 Climate conditions in the near-term, mid-term and distant future for growing soybeans in Canada
Budong Qian, Ward Smith, Qi Jing, Yong Min Kim, Guillaume Jégo, Brian Grant, Scott Duguid, Ken Hester, Alison Nelson
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Abstract

The soybean industry in Canada aimed to extensively expand soybean production to benefit from new early-maturing varieties and the warming climate. However, setbacks in the soybean industry since 2017 demonstrated the impacts of climate risk and global market uncertainty. Therefore, a better understanding of future climate conditions that will impact soybean growth in Canada is needed for decision-making in the sector, such as prioritizing regions for expansion and developing climate change adaptation strategies through either agronomic management practices or breeding new cultivars. Based on climate projections from a set of global climate models, we analyzed climate conditions for growing soybeans, including growing season start, crop heat units, precipitation, precipitation deficits and climate extremes, in the near-term (2030s), the mid-term (2050s) and the distant future (2070s). We found that a future warmer climate with an increase of 1.6, 2.8 and 4.1 °C in the growing season (May–September) mean temperature averaged over Canada’s land area in the near-term, mid-term and distant future under SSP3-7.0 would favour the expansion of soybean production further north and west. However, an increase of approximately 200 mm in precipitation deficits on the semiarid Canadian Prairies in the mid-term would constrain soybean production unless irrigation could be introduced. Heat- and drought-tolerant cultivars should be developed to adapt soybean production to a changing climate, in addition to the adoption of late-maturing cultivars that would benefit from the lengthened growing season and increased crop heat units.

Budong Qian, Ward Smith, Qi Jing, Yong Min Kim, Guillaume Jégo, Brian Grant, Scott Duguid, Ken Hester, and Alison Nelson "Climate conditions in the near-term, mid-term and distant future for growing soybeans in Canada," Canadian Journal of Plant Science 103(2), 161-174, (15 December 2022). https://doi.org/10.1139/cjps-2022-0233
Received: 13 October 2022; Accepted: 11 December 2022; Published: 15 December 2022
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KEYWORDS
climate change impacts
climate condition
Climate projection
crop heat unit
soybean
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