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1 February 2015 Upscaling modelled crop yields to regional scale: A case study using DSSAT for spring wheat on the Canadian prairies
Ted Huffman, Budong Qian, Reinder De Jong, Jiangui Liu, Hong Wang, Brian McConkey, Tony Brierley, Jingyi Yang
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Abstract

Huffman, T., Qian, B., De Jong, R., Liu, J., Wang, H., McConkey, B., Brierley, T. and Yang, J. 2015. Upscaling modelled crop yields to regional scale: A case study using DSSAT for spring wheat on the Canadian prairies. Can. J. Soil Sci. 95: 49–61. Dynamic crop models are often operated at the plot or field scale. Upscaling is necessary when the process-based crop models are used for regional applications, such as forecasting regional crop yields and assessing climate change impacts on regional crop productivity. Dynamic crop models often require detailed input data for climate, soil and crop management; thus, their reliability may decrease at the regional scale as the uncertainty of simulation results might increase due to uncertainties in the input data. In this study, we modelled spring wheat yields at the level of numerous individual soils using the CERES-Wheat model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and then aggregated the simulated yields from individual soils to regions where crop yields were reported. A comparison between the aggregated and the reported yields was performed to examine the potential of using dynamic crop models with individual soils in a region for the simulation of regional crop yields. The regionally aggregated simulated yields demonstrated reasonable agreement with the reported data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a root-mean-square error of 266 kg ha-1 (i.e., 15% of the average yield) over 40 regions on the Canadian prairies. Our conclusion is that aggregating simulated crop yields on individual soils with a crop model can be reliable for the estimation of regional crop yields. This demonstrated its potential as a useful approach for using crop models to assess climate change impacts on regional crop productivity.

Ted Huffman, Budong Qian, Reinder De Jong, Jiangui Liu, Hong Wang, Brian McConkey, Tony Brierley, and Jingyi Yang "Upscaling modelled crop yields to regional scale: A case study using DSSAT for spring wheat on the Canadian prairies," Canadian Journal of Soil Science 95(1), 49-61, (1 February 2015). https://doi.org/10.1139/cjss-2014-076
Received: 8 August 2014; Accepted: 1 November 2014; Published: 1 February 2015
JOURNAL ARTICLE
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KEYWORDS
agrégation du rendement
application régionale
Blé de printemps
Canada
CERES-Wheat crop model
Modèle agricole du blé CERES
regional application (Canada)
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