Some of the long-term consequences of China's collective forests tenure reform were projected with the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM). The reform had a positive effect on the wood supply and demand balance. By 2020 the reform led to a 14 to 36 percent decrease of China's imports of industrial roundwood. Concurrently, the rest of the world produced less, but several other countries especially in Europe, imported more. Despite the positive short-term effect of the reform on supply, China's industrial roundwood deficit was still increasing, but at a slower rate, after the reform was complete, due to the high demand induced by China's fast growing economy. Furthermore, while the tenure reform on collective forests mitigated China's timber shortage, it also decreased China's forest stock, with adverse effects for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. Nevertheless, globally, this negative effect was compensated by a more than equal increase of forest stock in the rest of the world.
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Vol. 14 • No. 3