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1 March 2015 Forecasting Forest Areas and Carbon Stocks in Cambodia Based on Socio-Economic Factors
T. Michinaka, M. Matsumoto, M. Miyamoto, Y. Yokota, H. Sokh, S. Lao, N. Tsukada, T. Matsuura, V. Ma
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Abstract

Establishing forest reference emission levels (RELs) and/or forest reference levels (RLs) is an important task for developing country parties considering taking part in the REDD scheme under the UNFCCC, especially for those countries experiencing corresponding economic development with land use changes. In this research, Cambodia's forest areas and forest carbon stocks from 2011 to 2018 were forecasted, which can be used as a reference for establishing forest RELs in Cambodia. Conditional to the assumptions of population growth, the growth in agricultural gross value added, and the level of economic land concession implementations, the forecasts by panel data analysis to provincial-level data showed that the forest area in Cambodia will decrease to 9.94 million ha in 2014 and 9.51 million ha in 2018 from 10.36 million ha in 2010 and that forest carbon stocks will decrease to 1.22 PgC in 2014 and 1.17 PgC in 2018 from 1.28 PgC in 2010.

T. Michinaka, M. Matsumoto, M. Miyamoto, Y. Yokota, H. Sokh, S. Lao, N. Tsukada, T. Matsuura, and V. Ma "Forecasting Forest Areas and Carbon Stocks in Cambodia Based on Socio-Economic Factors," International Forestry Review 17(1), 66-75, (1 March 2015). https://doi.org/10.1505/146554815814725103
Published: 1 March 2015
KEYWORDS
Cambodia
deforestation
panel data analysis
REDD
reference emission level
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