Jung, M.K.; Lee, B.; Park, M.W., and Kwon, H.H., 2024. Enhancing seawall resilience: A probabilistic analysis of armor stone stability against wave-induced forces. In: Phillips, M.R.; Al-Naemi, S., and Duarte, C.M. (eds.), Coastlines under Global Change: Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2024 (Doha, Qatar). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 113, pp. 135-139. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208.

This study investigates the stability of armor stone against the forces exerted by incoming waves on the seawalls. Given the critical role of waves as the dominant external force, they often result in the deterioration of armor stones on the seaside slopes - a consistent finding across field inspections that emphasizes the need for persistent maintenance efforts. This study adopts the quantile mapping approach to project the wave data obtained from offshore buoys onto the nearest regions adjacent to the seawall. This approach is designed to preserve the underlying stochastic relationship between offshore wave patterns and those waves approaching the seawall, as the numerical model (SWAN) accurately simulates. In assessing the risk associated with the potential failure of armor stones under varying coastal and internal conditions of seawall, this study formulates a limit state equation based on the Van der Meer equation, with an application of Monte Carlo simulations. Through this probabilistic analysis, the study estimates the annual failure probability, offering valuable insights into the seawall's resilience and the efficacy of maintenance strategies in mitigating the risks posed by wave-induced forces. This exploration advances our understanding of coastal defense mechanisms and lays the groundwork for enhancing seawall design and maintenance strategies in the face of evolving climatic challenges.