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1 July 2009 Statistical and Uncertainty Analysis of Longshore Sediment Transport Evaluations for the Egyptian Northern Coast: A Case Study Application
M. A. Khalifa, M. A. El Ganainy, R. I. Nasr
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Previous studies carried out in the study area near Port Said, Egypt, concentrated mainly on analyzing the measured and calculated longshore sediment transport data and making predictions by modeling works. Few studies have conducted statistical and uncertainty analyses. In the first stage of this research, wave–time series from altimeter measurements were used for a domain of 50 km in length offshore and 25 km in width alongshore. Wave nearshore transformation analysis was carried out using the SWAN model. The transformed wave data were used for preliminary evaluations of littoral drift. Three formulae were used and were compared with the available target values. As a result, two equations provided suitable correction factors. Applying these corrections, the average values of the evaluations were determined and fit well with the target values.

In this stage of the research, statistical and uncertainty analysis for occurrence probabilities were carefully carried out for these evaluations. The main statistical parameters and the representative occurrence-probability density functions were determined. This investigation showed the importance of concentration on both NNW and NW wave propagation as dominant in the evaluations carried out. The quantity of longshore transport associated with minimum uncertainty in occurrence probability was also determined. The random bootstrap trends for both mean and standard deviation measurements were determined for both summer and winter seasons. Bias trends for longshore transport during the four annual seasons were also determined. The results of these analyses will be beneficial for understanding seasonal changes in littoral drift in this region.

M. A. Khalifa, M. A. El Ganainy, and R. I. Nasr "Statistical and Uncertainty Analysis of Longshore Sediment Transport Evaluations for the Egyptian Northern Coast: A Case Study Application," Journal of Coastal Research 2009(254), 1002-1014, (1 July 2009).
Received: 1 February 2008; Accepted: 28 August 2008; Published: 1 July 2009

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