Chun, J., Ahn, K., Yoon, J.-T., Suh, K.-D. and Kim, M., 2013. Projection of extreme typhoon wave : Case study at Busan, Korea

Several studies predicted that the typhoons will be more intense in the future. Since the intensification makes the wave environments at the coastal zone more extreme, the analysis on the enhancement of typhoon waves is required for the future protection of the coastal zone. Most of the extreme wave analysis is based on the measured or hindcast wave data which does not reflect the future trend of variations. This study discuss the add-on effect of future typhoon intensification on the estimation of extreme waves. Especially, since the extreme waves at Busan port, Korea are generated by typhoons, the trends of the activity and intensity of typhoons on the southern coasts of Korean Peninsula between 1951 and 2010 were analyzed. At the analysis, it was found that there is a trend in the intensity of typhoons. By applying the wavelet analysis, the long-term trend of the intensity of typhoons on the southern coasts of Korean Peninsula was obtained. The increasing rate of annual maximum pressure drop is 0.0786 hPa/yr. After 50 years, the pressure drop and maximum wind speeds will increase by 3.93 hPa and 2.5 m/s, assuming that this trend will be maintained in the future. Applying these values to six historic intense typhoons, the changes of wave heights by these typhoons were calculated. According to the present numerical simulations, the significant wave heights will increase by 1.24 m after 50 years.