Passeri, D.L.; Hagen, S.C.; and Irish, J.L., 2014. Comparison of shoreline change rates along the South Atlantic Bight and Northern Gulf of Mexico coasts for better evaluation of future shoreline positions under sea level rise.

Shoreline change rates established by the USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) (Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 1999; Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 2000), the USGS National Assessment of Shoreline Change (Morton et al., 2004; Morton and Miller, 2005) and erosion rates estimated using the Bruun Rule (Bruun, 1962) are compared along sandy shorelines of the U.S. South Atlantic Bight and Northern Gulf of Mexico coasts. The intent of the study is not to regard one method better than another, but rather to explore similarities and differences between the methods. Based on the comparison, the following recommendations are offered for quantifying future shoreline positions under sea level rise(SLR). In areas where long-term erosion rates correspond well with rates predicted by the Bruun Rule, shoreline retreat can be assumed to be completely attributed to forces related to SLR and the Bruun Rule can be applied to estimate future shoreline positions under SLR scenarios. If long-term erosion rates are higher than the rates predicted by the Bruun Rule, a hybrid approach can be taken to include a factor for background erosion due to influences other than SLR. Lastly, care should be taken when extrapolating shoreline change rates determined by the CVI or National Assessment of Shoreline Change to predict future shoreline positions. CVI rates may be projected when considering extreme future SLR scenarios, as they are typically larger than the long-term historic rates.