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13 November 2020 Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management
Fang Wang, Duo Wang, Ge Guo, Meixia Zhang, Jiayi Lang, Jiufeng Wei
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Abstract

Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis's potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Fang Wang, Duo Wang, Ge Guo, Meixia Zhang, Jiayi Lang, and Jiufeng Wei "Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management," Journal of Economic Entomology 114(1), 82-89, (13 November 2020). https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toaa245
Received: 8 June 2020; Accepted: 24 September 2020; Published: 13 November 2020
JOURNAL ARTICLE
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KEYWORDS
Ceroplastes cirripediformis
climate change
Maximum entropy
soft scale insect
species distribution model
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