Sixteen years of archived tufted apple bud moth, Platynota idaeusalis (Walker), trap capture data were compared with archived fruit injury data collected at the Penn State University Fruit Research and Extension Center to define the relationship of trap capture to fruit injury. Pheromone trap capture until 15 June was the best predictor of fruit injury at harvest. Using the regression equation of fruit injury on early season trap capture, and other assumptions about insecticide cost and fruit yield, a management model was developed for apple growers in the Mid-Atlantic region. When the model was tested on archived trap capture and fruit injury data, the results indicated that a grower would lose money on average by always treating and save money on average by never treating. By using the model, a grower could expect to save more money than by never treating. The model showed sensitivity to fruit price, insecticide price, and fruit yield.