We modified an existing model for European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), population dynamics and genetics to evaluate the effectiveness of oviposition deterrence in transgenic fields for resistance management. We simulated two types of deterrence: one type has females reducing their oviposition because of lost opportunities to lay eggs (eggs lost), and the other type has the deterred females moving to the refuge to lay eggs. Oviposition deterrence was clearly effective in extending the time to resistance to transgenic corn (R allele) in the European corn borer, particularly when 80% or more of the eggs were deterred from being oviposited on the transgenic plants. With 90% of eggs deterred, the time required to reach 50% R-allele frequency increases 3.7- to 5.5-fold compared with the no-deterrence scenario. The time to 50% R-allele frequency was similar for the two types of simulated deterrence, but the densities of the European corn borer were 100-fold higher when the deterred females oviposited in the refuge. The Y allele for insensitivity or resistance to deterrence never reached 50% within the 50-yr time line for these simulations except when the R allele was dominant and the Y allele was not recessive. The time to 50% Y-allele frequency was 33 and 26 yr when the Y allele was additive or dominant, respectively, when 50% of the eggs were deterred, but the time decreased to 18 and 16 yr when 90% of the eggs were deterred. The effectiveness of oviposition deterrence on time to resistance to transgenic insecticidal plants was not changed much when we altered our assumptions about behavior in a sensitivity analysis.
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Vol. 99 • No. 6