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1 September 2007 Amphibian Decline or Extinction? Current Declines Dwarf Background Extinction Rate
Malcolm L. McCallum
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Amphibian declines and extinctions are critical concerns of biologists around the world. The estimated current rate of amphibian extinction is known, but how it compares to the background amphibian extinction rate from the fossil record has not been well studied. I compared current amphibian extinction rates with their reported background extinction rates using standard and fuzzy arithmetic. These calculations suggest that the current extinction rate of amphibians could be 211 times the background amphibian extinction rate. If current estimates of amphibian species in imminent danger of extinction are included in these calculations, then the current amphibian extinction rate may range from 25,039–45,474 times the background extinction rate for amphibians. It is difficult to explain this unprecedented and accelerating rate of extinction as a natural phenomenon.

Malcolm L. McCallum "Amphibian Decline or Extinction? Current Declines Dwarf Background Extinction Rate," Journal of Herpetology 41(3), 483-491, (1 September 2007).[483:ADOECD]2.0.CO;2
Accepted: 1 April 2007; Published: 1 September 2007

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