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2 May 2023 Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rapid Urban Growth on the Loess Plateau from 1995 to 2050
Liang Youjia, Liu Lijun
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With the implementation of the national policy of “High-quality development of the Yellow River Basin”, urban growth on the Loess Plateau is expected in the future. However, studies involving spatiotemporal simulations of urban growth at the regional scale are limited. We proposed an integrated modeling method, using the SLEUTH model and indicator-based spatial mapping, to quantify and map urban growth based on a dataset of urban cover from 1995 to 2050 with 1 km resolution. The results showed that the rates and spatial patterns of urban growth varied across multi-level cities, and were affected by urban development policies, the physical environment and administrative functions. The overall urban area in 2050 will be approximately 8.12 times that in 1995 among the 15 prefectural and capital cities, and the overall urban growth rates are 5.97% and 3.2% for the periods of 1995–2015 and 2015–2050, respectively. Leapfrogging was the major urban growth pattern during the period of 1995–2015, while edge-growth will become the dominant urbanization pattern by 2030s, and the infilling growth pattern shows a minimal contribution to the urban growth in most of the cities during the study period, except for the plain-limited cities (e.g., Lanzhou and Xining). The spatiotemporal changes in the multi-level urban growth based on high resolution maps can provide essential information for promoting regional urban planning and sustainable city management on the Loess Plateau.

Liang Youjia and Liu Lijun "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rapid Urban Growth on the Loess Plateau from 1995 to 2050," Journal of Resources and Ecology 14(3), 567-580, (2 May 2023).
Received: 25 January 2022; Accepted: 21 August 2022; Published: 2 May 2023
urban growth pattern
urban level
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