The first task in ensuring a reduction in CO₂ emissions is to quantitatively measure the factors and their effect size on increasing CO₂ emissions due to fossil fuel consumption. An extension of the buying and import-noncompetition economy-energy-CO₂ emission input-output model was designed to analyze CO₂ emission increases for Beijing from 1997–2007. The increase in CO₂ emissions because of energy consumption was broken down into nine kinds of effects including the change in energy consumption intensity and structure, and economic scale expansion. We found that the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption investment, export and selling were the main factors increasing CO₂ emissions. The effect of the change in energy consumption intensity was the dominant factor reducing CO₂ emissions. CO₂ emissions increased rapidly from 2002. The first increase in carbon emissions was related to the service industry, adjustment in industrial structure and the priority given to tertiary industries. High energy consumption manufacturing was the industrial branch driving CO₂ emissions; the main industry driving CO₂ emission reductions was the energy industry. The new round of industrialization with ‘high carbon’ features meant that CO₂ emissions increased rapidly from 2002–2007. The quantity and direction of the nine focal effects varied across industries and different industrial sectors.