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1 May 2018 Forecasting the Ethiopian Coffee Price Using Kalman Filtering Algorithm
Tesfahun Berhane, Nurilign Shibabaw, Aemiro Shibabaw, Molalign Adam, Abera A. Muhamed
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Abstract

Ethiopian coffee price is highly fluctuated and has significant effect on the economy of the country. Conducting a research on forecasting coffee price has theoretical and practical importance. This study aims at forecasting the coffee price in Ethiopia. We used daily closed price data of Ethiopian coffee recorded in the period 25 June 2008 to 5 January 2017 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse coffee prices fluctuation. Here, the nature of coffee price is non-stationary and we apply the Kalman filtering algorithm on a single linear state space model to estimate and forecast an optimal value of coffee price. The performance of the algorithm for estimating and forecasting the coffee price is evaluated by using root mean square error (RMSE). Based on the linear state space model and the Kalman filtering algorithm, the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.000016375, which is small enough, and it indicates that the algorithm performs well.

Tesfahun Berhane, Nurilign Shibabaw, Aemiro Shibabaw, Molalign Adam, and Abera A. Muhamed "Forecasting the Ethiopian Coffee Price Using Kalman Filtering Algorithm," Journal of Resources and Ecology 9(3), 302-305, (1 May 2018). https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2018.03.010
Received: 9 October 2017; Accepted: 20 January 2018; Published: 1 May 2018
KEYWORDS
coffee price
Ethiopian
forecasting
Kalman filtering algorithm
state space model
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