We used participatory scenario planning to support strategic-level analysis by stakeholders in tourism and park management issues in Sagarmatha National Park, Nepal. Authority and responsibility for protected area management in Nepal are gradually being devolved to local communities. Tourism growth and globalization are strengthening the links between social-ecological change in mountain protected areas and drivers of change at national, regional, and global scales. Park management needs to become forward looking, and local communities need to increase their grasp of potential long-term changes and associated uncertainty. Scenario planning is a tool for dealing with long-term uncertainty and complexity and for guiding adaptive management. We developed scenarios together with representatives of the tourism industry, park comanagement institutions, and communities. Stakeholders described their understanding of the social-ecological system of the park. They formulated and tested 4 scenarios of system change, based on plausible changes in governance systems and the role of outside tourism industry actors. Stakeholders can use scenarios to reflect on the inherent uncertainty of long-term change, to address potentially conflictual issues by exploring multiple perspectives, and to assess the need to negotiate strategic goals and long-term visions for the park.

This paper presents the results of management-oriented research on energy, forest, and human health issues in a remote mountain area, the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ), Nepal. The research was based on a broader, integrated participatory framework ultimately intended for use in adaptive management. The present study focused on the application of a participatory modeling framework to address problems related to energy demand and consumption, forest condition, and indoor air pollution, which were defined by the stakeholders as important issues to be addressed. The models were developed using a generalizing design that allows for user-friendly adaptation to other contexts (free download at  http://hkkhpartnership.org). Moreover, we simulated management scenarios in collaboration with all modeling actors with the aim of building consensus on the understanding of the system as well as supporting decision-makers' capacity not only to respond to changes, but also to anticipate them. Importantly, the system dynamics assessment found that the SNPBZ forests are affected by an increasing demand for fuelwood (occurring due to tourism growth), as one of the main sources of energy. Selected forests show an average reduction of 38% in forest biomass from 1992 to 2008. This shows that the business-as-usual scenario is unlikely to result in the preservation of the current forest status; in fact, such preservation would require 75% of fuelwood to be replaced with alternative energy sources. At the same time, a 75% reduction of fuelwood use (and an 80% reduction of dung use) would reduce indoor carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations to the standard limits for CO exposure set by the World Health Organization.

The problem of supporting decision- and policy-makers in managing issues related to solid waste and water quality was addressed within the context of a participatory modeling framework in the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone in Nepal. We present the main findings of management-oriented research projects conducted within this framework, thus providing an overview of the current situation in the park regarding solid waste and water quality issues. We found that most of the solid waste generated in the park is composed of organic matter, paper, and minor reused waste that is mainly reused for cattle feeding and manure, while disposal of other nondegradable categories of collected waste (glass, metal, and plastic) is not properly managed. Particularly, burning or disposal in open dumps poses a great hazard to environmental, human, and animal health, as most dump sites situated close to water courses are prone to regular flooding during the rainy season, thereby directly contaminating river water. Pollutants and microbiological contamination in water bodies were found and anthropogenic activities and hazardous practices such as solid waste dump sites, open defecation, and poor conditions of existing septic tanks are suggested as possibly affecting water quality. Collection of these data on solid waste and water quality and compilation of management information on the targeted social-ecological system allowed us to develop consensus-building models to be used as management supporting tools. By implementing such models, we were able to simulate scenarios identifying and evaluating possible management solutions and interventions in the park. This work reveals insights into general dynamics that can support the quest for solutions to waste and water quality management problems in other protected areas and mountain landscapes where traditional livelihood and land use patterns are changing under the influence of a growing population, changing consumption patterns, and international tourism.

Land cover assessment and monitoring of land cover dynamics are important to understand social and ecological processes in mountain protected areas. However, variations in the use of legends and classification systems sometimes pose challenges. The landscape of Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ) has seen many changes in the past few decades. Mapping of land cover in SNPBZ was carried out to fill gaps in basic databases for the area. A review of past land cover initiatives and existing data revealed differences in methodologies and definitions that made them incompatible for cross-region applications. For the present study, a legend was developed using the standard Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) methodology developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, a comprehensive and standardized a priori classification system designed for mapping exercises independent of scales or means. The changes in land cover were analyzed using Landsat Thematic Mapper, Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer images from 1992 to 2006. Land cover maps were generated using object-based image analysis supplemented by ancillary information. Extensive fieldwork was carried out for ground truthing and validation. The use of LCCS was instrumental in bringing general understanding of the classification systems and helping to gain greater clarity and accuracy in the results. About 70% of the SNPBZ area is covered by snow and ice, glaciers, bare rocks, and bare soil. Altitude and its influence on climatic conditions have dominated the distribution pattern of vegetation in SNPBZ. The analysis showed that forest is being converted into shrub at elevations between 3000 and 4000 m, while shrub is decreasing between 4000 and 5000 m. A major decrease in snow cover is seen above 5000 m. Harmonization of the classification system helped to gain more reliable information on changes, as comparisons were made between the classes with consistent definitions.

This study presents satellite data and in situ measurements to estimate the concentration of suspended solids in high-altitude and remote lakes of the Himalayas. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations measured in 13 lakes to the south of Mount Everest (Nepal) in October 2008 and reflectance values of the Advanced Visible and Near Infrared Radiometer type 2 (AVNIR-2) onboard ALOS, acquired a few days after the fieldwork activities concluded, were combined to build a relationship (R²  =  0.921) for mapping SPM concentrations in lakes of the Mount Everest region. The satellite-derived SPM concentrations were compared with in situ data (R²  =  0.924) collected in the same period in 4 additional lakes, located to the north of Mount Everest (Tibet, China). The 13 water samples collected in lakes in Nepal were also used to investigate the absorption coefficients of particles a_p(λ) and colored, dissolved organic matter a_CDOM(λ), with the aim of parameterizing a bio-optical model. An accurate model (R²  =  0.965) to estimate SPM concentrations from a_p(λ) was found and could be adopted in the future for retrieving suspended solids from satellite imagery independently of ground measurements. In such a remote area, remote sensing was demonstrated to be a suitable tool to characterize the state of lakes, whose loads of suspended solids might be assumed to be direct and quick-responding indicators of deglaciation processes and glacier–lake interactions. As a macrodescriptor of water quality, the assessment of SPM in glacial lakes of the Himalayas might also be of interest for resource use in the downstream region.

People in the Karakoram use discharge from glaciers during summer for irrigation and other purposes. While the glacial meltwater supply during hot and dry periods will vary as a result of climate change, Karakoram glaciers so far have not shown a consistent reaction to climatic change, although climate scenarios indicate severe future impacts in the high-elevation regions of the Himalaya and Karakoram. Field measurements on Hinarche Glacier in Bagrot Valley are combined with remote sensing information and climate observations to investigate the meltwater production of the glacier and estimate the meltwater discharge in the valley. Special emphasis was placed on ice melt beneath supraglacial debris, which is the common process on the glacier tongues in the region. The calculated annual meltwater production of about 135 million m³ for Hinarche Glacier shows the order of magnitude for glacier runoff in such environments. Glacial meltwater production is about 300 million m³ per year for the entire valley under balanced conditions. This analysis serves as a basis for further investigations concerning temporal meltwater variability and potential water usage by the local population.

The Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKKH) Partnership Project involves implementation of various applied research and development activities that require integration of diverse data and information as well as interpretation of various forms of information and knowledge, such as system dynamics models, simulation results, historical databases, and technical reports. In order to bring these together and promote interdisciplinary collaboration, communication, and dissemination of information among concerned stakeholders and general public users, an Integrated Web Portal (IWP) with a customized Content Management System (CMS) was developed as part of the HKKH project. Several features that were incorporated as modules are discussed here.

The planning and sustainable management of complex social-ecological systems (SESs) in high mountain areas such as the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKKH) region requires an approach that takes account of both environmental issues and local population needs. The HKKH Partnership Project developed methodologies and tools for systemic planning and management of social-ecological systems at local, regional, and national levels in the HKKH region, with a special focus on 3 protected areas in Nepal, Pakistan, and China. The adopted approach brought together researchers, policy-makers, and managers; it bridged the gap between research and management priorities and enabled communication to address the needs of communities while promoting conservation. Lessons learned are described and conclusions made on appropriate methods for the management of SESs in other regions.

High mountains have sensitive social-ecological systems (SESs) characterized by fragility, complexity, and marginality. The local economies of these environments mainly rely on primary production, tourism, and leisure activities; thus human–ecosystem interactions are intricately linked. Many authors stress that this strict relationship must be assisted with a participatory approach involving interested stakeholders in the conceptualization, specification, and synthesis of knowledge and experience into useable information for the express purpose of addressing a problem complex. This paper presents experience garnered with a participatory modeling framework combining hard and soft methodology in 2 case studies: the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (Nepal) and the Central Karakoram National Park (Pakistan). The modeling framework was developed based on local stakeholders' demands and needs; it consists of 5 modules, briefly presented here along with their conceptual background. In developing the framework, particular emphasis was given to considering the needs of decision-makers at the local level, rather than simply providing technical solutions to abstract problems. From the development of this modeling process, a need emerged to structure a management-oriented research module in order to generate management knowledge that is both stakeholder-relevant and evidence-based. The application of the framework in the 2 cases studies showed that the modeling can trigger valuable discussion among stakeholders as well as guidance for management-oriented research and feedback loops ensuring validation of knowledge. In addition, the resulting scenarios can help decision-makers in defining pathways for sustainable development in mountain areas, where people's livelihoods are closely dependent on ecosystems. The framework was developed in such a way that it can be replicated in other mountain areas with similar challenges.

New tools and methodologies are required in systemic planning and management of mountain protected areas. Among others we propose here a decision support toolbox (DST) conceived as an integrated collection of both soft and hard system methodologies, consisting of participatory and computer-based modules to provide a set of integrated, self-contained tools and approaches to support decision-making processes in the management of mountain protected areas. The Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ) in Nepal was taken as a pilot case. A number of participatory exercises such as participatory 3-dimensional modeling, scenario planning, and qualitative modeling were carried out to understand social-ecological processes and generate a systemic view over space and time. The qualitative models were then converted into computer-based system dynamics models. The design and development of DST software were carried out with an incremental and modular approach. This process involved stakeholder analysis and decision-making processes through a series of consultations. The software was developed with the main modules including scenario analysis, spatial analysis, and knowledge base. The scenario analysis module runs system dynamics models built in Simile software and provides functions to link them with spatial data for model inputs and outputs. The spatial analysis module provides the basic geographic information system functions to explore, edit, analyze, and visualize spatial information. The knowledge base module was developed as a metadata management system for different categories of information such as spatial data, bibliography, research data, and models. The development of DST software, especially system dynamics modeling and its linkage with spatial components, provided an important methodological approach for spatial and temporal integration. Furthermore, training and interactions with park managers and concerned stakeholders showed that DST is a useful platform for integrating data and information and better understanding ecosystem behavior as a basis for management decisions.