This study utilized satellite data and the published coefficients about the world and China's ecosystem to analyze the effects of oasis land-use change on ecosystem services in Keriya Oasis where both economic development and arid, fragile ecosystems have strongly affected land use. A sensitivity analysis was employed to determine the effect of manipulating these coefficients on the estimated values. Results indicated that: (1) the total values of ecosystem service in Keriya Oasis were about $232.2 million. $212.8 million, and $207.2 million in 1991, 2002, and 2008, respectively, and the net decline in ecosystem service value was about $25.0 million within 1991–2008; (2) the aggregated ecosystem service value of medium-cover grassland, wetland, low-cover grassland, cropland, and water body was about 90% of the total value; (3) waste treatment and soil formation were the top two ecological functions with high service value, and contributing about 41% of the total services value; and (4) ecosystem services values estimated in this study were inelastic with respect to the value coefficients. Therefore, the estimation was robust in spite of uncertainties on the value coefficients. A reasonable land-use plan should be based on rigorous environmental impact analyses for maintaining stability and sustainable development of Keriya Oasis.
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Vol. 34 • No. 3