Through an examination of historical records maintained by a local bird club, consisting of naturalist diaries, daily check-lists, and informal bird surveys, we found that 44 springtime migrant bird species show evidence of an increasingly early first arrival date (FAD) during a 123-year record (1885 to 2008) in Dutchess County, NY. Ninety-one percent of the species showed a significant advance in FAD over this period, with the mean advance being 11.6 days/century. Using truncations of the full data-set corresponding to available data for changes in observer effort and population trends, we found that adding these ancillary independent variables to a multiple linear regression contributed little to explain the change in FAD in recent years. The advance in FAD is potentially an index of global climate change in this region.
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1 September 2011
Historical Analysis of the Spring Arrival of Migratory Birds to Dutchess County, New York: A 123-Year Record
Jessica Vitale,
William H. Schlesinger
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Northeastern Naturalist
Vol. 18 • No. 3
September 2011
Vol. 18 • No. 3
September 2011