Breeding at the right time is essential for animals living in seasonal environments to ensure that energy requirements for reproduction, especially the nutritional needs for rearing offspring, coincide with peak food availability. Climate change is likely to cause modifications in the timing of maximum food availability, and organisms living in polar environments where the breeding period is heavily contracted may be particularly affected. Here we used a 26-year dataset to study the phenological response of a pagophilic species, the Snow Petrel (Pagodroma nivea), to climate change and its demographic impact. First, we investigated the trends and relationships between climate variables and hatching dates measured in three neighboring colonies. In a second step, we examined the impact of the hatching date and environmental covariates on the fledging probability. Our results showed that sea ice, a climate-related variable, showed a positive temporal trend. We found that hatching date was delayed when sea ice concentration was greater and local weather conditions were worse (i.e., increase in the number of windy days or the number of snow days). Hatching date had a negative effect on fledging probability, and fledging probability showed a bell-shaped temporal trend. We suggest that Snow Petrels can delay breeding phenology in response to environmental conditions. However, this plasticity may be limited as fledging success decreased with delayed hatching, potentially making the Snow Petrel vulnerable to a mismatch between resource availability and nutritional needs.
LAY SUMMARY
Timing of reproduction is essential for wild animals to ensure that reproductive requirements, including nutritional requirements for rearing offspring, coincide with peak food availability.
Climate change can affect the timing of food availability, and organisms living in polar environments, where the timing of reproduction is highly contracted, may be particularly affected. We analyzed whether a sea ice dependent species, the Snow Petrel (Pagodroma nivea), would breed earlier or later in response to climate change, as measured by changes in sea ice and weather conditions. Then, we looked at the impact that a shift in reproduction might have on breeding success.
Our results showed that hatching date was delayed when sea ice increased and local weather conditions worsened. Secondly, we showed that the shift in hatching date had a negative effect on breeding success.
Snow Petrels adjusted the onset of reproduction in response to environmental changes. However, this adjustment had limits since late reproduction likely leads to a mismatch between the availability of resources and nutritional needs, and thus to a decrease the breeding success.
