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16 October 2019 Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
Blanca Sarzo, Carmen Armero, David Conesa, Jonas Hentati-Sundberg, Olof Olsson
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Abstract

In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival of immature Common Murre (Uria aalge) obtained from an extensive mark-recapture study of a large colony at Stora Karlsö in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. This colony, in contrast with other colonies, has the unique feature that many 1-year-old birds return to the colony (12%). Between 2006 and 2016, 28,930 chicks were marked at fledging, of which 5,493 individuals were later resighted in the colony. Annual survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with four age classes for survival probability, and recapture probability being age and time dependent. Informative prior distributions were used to correct partial observability problems in older age classes (observed at breeding ledges). The estimated survival probability of 1-year-old birds was 0.53 (95% CI = 0.49-0.58), 2-year-old birds was 0.87 (0.79-0.96), 3-year-old birds was 0.96 (0.90-0.99), and 4-to-10-year old bird survival probability was 0.63 (0.61-0.64). Survival estimates for younger age classes were consistent with previous studies. Several biological factors may contribute to the observed decline in survival for older age classes.

Blanca Sarzo, Carmen Armero, David Conesa, Jonas Hentati-Sundberg, and Olof Olsson "Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea," Waterbirds 42(3), 304-313, (16 October 2019). https://doi.org/10.1675/063.042.0306
Received: 8 December 2018; Accepted: 1 July 2019; Published: 16 October 2019
KEYWORDS
annual survival
Cormack-Jolly-Seber models
first-year survival
juvenile survival
partial detectability
recapture probability
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