For 30 Afro-Palearctic bird species, the size of the breeding population in Europe is compared to the numbers wintering in the northern dry belt of Africa south of the Sahara, the Sahel. As the distribution of most of these species is wider than just Europe and the Sahel, the estimates are adjusted based on known breeding and wintering ranges. Eight Palearctic species recorded sparsely in the Sahel appeared to winter mainly beyond our delimited study area and so were excluded from the analyses. Species with a wide breeding distribution invariably had larger breeding than wintering ranges, but the opposite was true for species with limited breeding distributions. This outcome was at least partly due to underestimation of the breeding range of species with a small breeding area and an overestimation of the wintering range in species having a large wintering area. Our systematic survey of the Sahel revealed that bird species wintering in the northern and driest part of the Sahel actually wintered further north than indicated on published distribution maps, whereas species from the southern, humid zone wintered further south. The Sahel surveys indicate that the total population size of species breeding mainly in southern Europe, such as Masked Shrike Lanius nubicus, Western Bonelli's Warbler Phylloscopus bonelli, Subalpine Warbler Curruca iberiae + C. subalpina + C. cantillans and Rüppell's Warbler Curruca ruppeli, have so far been underestimated, but that population sizes of Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus and Common Whitethroat Curruca communis have probably been overestimated.