Kochia is a troublesome, multiple herbicide-resistant tumbleweed which infests Prairie field crops. Kochia has developed resistance to systemic, foliar-applied herbicides from groups 2, 4, and 9, leaving only contact herbicides for post-emergence control. Group 14 chemistry is an important mode of action for resistance management. Weed staging considerations are important as recurrent sub-lethal herbicide exposure can increase risk of nontarget site resistance evolution. The study objective was to evaluate loss-of-control and estimate sublethal dosing exposure risk (SLDER) with a contact-type herbicide (carfentrazone-ethyl) based on initial kochia height, leaf number, and branch number. The SLDER from a single application to a single plant was conceptualized to increase due to escaping plant “volume” or immediate flowering. Kochia was only consistently controlled (100% injury) when dosed at ≤5 cm in height. The estimated maximum size for treated kochia was 21 cm in height, 18 branches plant⁻¹, and the maximum accumulated biomass was between 2.6 and 5.1 g plant⁻¹ for models developed using the initial plant height, branch number, or leaf number as predictors. These estimates represent the largest plant escapes, which would be associated with 100% risk through vegetative considerations into SLDER. Kochia plant size for a 5% risk scenario using the SLDER model was 4 cm in height, 0 branches plant⁻¹, and 11 leaves plant⁻¹ when carfentrazone-ethyl was applied at the labeled dosing. Caution is advised when spraying kochia above 5 cm as incorrect staging may lead to sublethal exposure, escape, reproduction, and escalated risk of nontarget site resistance evolution.