Albrecht, F. and Shaffer, G., 2016. Regional sea-level change along the Chilean coast in the 21st century.

Regional sea-level change for Chile is considered until the end of the 21st century for the representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The main components that contribute to sea-level change are analyzed and summed to achieve a total estimate of sea-level change along the coast of Chile and in the Southeast Pacific. Included are the steric/dynamic component, the contribution from land ice loss, and the sea-level change due to the glacial isostatic adjustment. Regional fingerprints and global means are combined to estimate sea-level change in this area. For the steric/dynamic component two different estimates are considered. The results are compared with those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The total mean sea-level rise along the coast lies between 34 cm and 52 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario and between 46 cm and 74 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, depending on the location and the steric/dynamic component estimate considered. This component is the main contribution in each scenario. All estimates show a modest, relatively constant decrease in sea-level rise along the coast from north to south.