Toe clipping reduces the return rate of some wild amphibians, but effects of toe clipping on recapture rate and survival rate (the two components of return rate) have not been quantified for salamanders. Mark–recapture data for Jefferson Salamanders (Ambystoma jeffersonianum) were analyzed to estimate these effects using eight different statistical models. These models allowed (1) the effect of removing each toe to remain constant or to increase proportionally with the number of toes removed; and (2) recapture rate and survival rate to remain constant or vary among years. The predicted effect on the return rate was similar for all eight models, with a reduction of about 15–20% when three toes were removed. The predicted effect on survival and recapture rates varied with the choice of model. The best-fitting models, as selected on the basis of the deviance information criterion, predicted a large effect on recapture rate (14–17% reduction when removing three toes) and a negligible effect on survival rate (0–2% reduction when removing three toes). Whether toe clipping reduced survival and recapture rates was unclear when the best models were selected on the basis of Bayesian P-values. The reduction in return rate of Jefferson salamanders was consistent with that previously observed for frogs and toads. However, the analysis was not able to identify clearly whether the effect was caused by a reduction in survival, a reduction in recapture rate, or both.