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7 June 2017 The Geographic Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Revisited: The Importance of Assumptions About Error Balance
Abstract

The black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is the primary vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, a spirochete that causes Lyme disease, in eastern North America. Lyme disease risk has generally been considered to be focused in the Northeast and the northern Midwest in the United States, yet the distribution of the vector extends considerably more broadly. A recent analysis of the distribution of the species using ecological niche modeling approaches painted an odd biogeographic picture, in which the species is distributed in a “rimming” distribution across the northern Midwest and Northeast, and along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the eastern United States, but not broadly in the interior of eastern North America. Here, we reanalyze the situation for this species, and demonstrate that the distribution estimated in the previous study was a consequence of assumptions about relative weights applied to different error types. A more appropriate error weighting scheme for niche modeling analyses, in which omission error is prioritized over commission error, shows a simpler distribution, in which the species ranges continuously across eastern North America; this distributional pattern is supported by independent occurrence data from the eastern Great Plains, in Kansas. We discuss implications for public health planning and intervention across the region, as well as for developing effective and predictive maps of vector distributions and pathogen transmission risk.

© The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
"The Geographic Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Revisited: The Importance of Assumptions About Error Balance," Journal of Medical Entomology 54(4), 1080-1084, (7 June 2017). https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjx095
Received: 13 December 2016; Accepted: 13 February 2017; Published: 7 June 2017
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KEYWORDS
biogeography
GIS
Ixodidae
Lyme disease
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