The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities

Najmul Haider; Mohammad Nayeem Hasan; Ibrahim Khalil; Daniel Tonge; Shivanand Hegde; Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury; Mahbubur Rahman; Manjur Hossain Khan; Rashid Ansumana; Alimuddin Zumla; Md. Jamal Uddin

doi:10.1093/jme/tjad057

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18 May 2023 The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities

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J. of Medical Entomology, 60(4):847-852 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjad057

Abstract

Bangladesh reported the highest number of annual deaths (n = 281) related to dengue virus infection in 2022 since the virus reappeared in the country in 2000. Earlier studies showed that >92% of the annual cases occurred between the months of August and September. The 2022 outbreak is characterized by late onset of dengue cases with unusually higher deaths in colder months, that is, October–December. Here we present possible hypotheses and explanations for this late resurgence of dengue cases. First, in 2022, the rainfall started late in the season. Compared to the monthly average rainfall for September and October between 2003 and 2021, there was 137 mm of additional monthly rainfall recorded in September and October 2022. Furthermore, the year 2022 was relatively warmer with a 0.71°C increased temperature than the mean annual temperature of the past 20 yr. Second, a new dengue virus serotype, DENV-4, had recently reintroduced/ reappeared in 2022 and become the dominant serotype in the country for a large naïve population. Third, the post-pandemic return of normalcy after 2 yr of nonpharmaceutical social measures facilitates extra mosquito breeding habitats, especially in construction sites. Community engagement and regular monitoring and destruction of Aedes mosquitoes' habitats should be prioritized to control dengue virus outbreaks in Bangladesh.

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Najmul Haider, Mohammad Nayeem Hasan, Ibrahim Khalil, Daniel Tonge, Shivanand Hegde, Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury, Mahbubur Rahman, Manjur Hossain Khan, Rashid Ansumana, Alimuddin Zumla, and Md. Jamal Uddin "The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities," Journal of Medical Entomology 60(4), 847-852, (18 May 2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjad057

Received: 5 January 2023; Accepted: 10 May 2023; Published: 18 May 2023

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