Environmental suitability for the European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller) was studied in Mexico. Nineteen weather variables were studied in grapevine, Vitis vinifera (L.), regions of the country. The model calculated areas with high and medium probability of environmental suitability in Baja California, medium probability in central and northern Chihuahua, and low probability in Coahuila, Durango, Puebla, Sonora, and Zacatecas. The environmental variables with most impact were average annual temperature (17.2%), rainfall amount during coldest month (16.4%), average temperature of most humid quartile (14.4%), and minimum temperature of coldest month (11.4%). Baja California State is most at risk for invasion by European grapevine moth.