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1 April 2008 Estimating reproductive rates for female bears: Proportions versus transition probabilities
Charles C. Schwartz, Gary C. White
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Abstract

Estimating reproductive rate is an important element in understanding the demographic status of any bear population. These rates have been traditionally estimated by marking a sample of individuals with radiocollars and tracking them for the life of the transmitter. Rates of reproduction have been estimated in various ways, but all essentially calculate a ratio of female cubs produced by the number of females in the sample. Inherent in these calculations is the assumption that the sample is representative of the female population at large. We compare methods used to estimate reproductive rate, comparing the proportion of females in various reproductive states estimated from capture data with a method that estimates transition probabilities and stable state conditions. The latter is unaffected by capture heterogeneity among reproductive states. We use examples from 2 study areas (Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem [Wyoming, Montana, Idaho] and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska), with grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black (Ursus americanus) bears. We discuss the effect of capture heterogeneity and concluded that reproductive rates are more accurately estimated using transition probabilities and stable state conditions if studies are short in duration, capture heterogeneity is evident, or individual bears in the sample are not recollared during the study.

Charles C. Schwartz and Gary C. White "Estimating reproductive rates for female bears: Proportions versus transition probabilities," Ursus 19(1), 1-12, (1 April 2008). https://doi.org/10.2192/07GR003R.1
Received: 15 June 2007; Accepted: 1 January 2008; Published: 1 April 2008
KEYWORDS
black bear
grizzly bear
reproductive rates
transition probabilities
Ursus americanus
Ursus arctos
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