There is increasing interest in soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration as a climate change mitigation strategy. There is a need to estimate the quantity of SOC sequestered historically due to no-till, and the remaining sequestration potential in Saskatchewan. To answer this question, predictive soil mapping results were linked with the Century model to predict SOC stock change over time to a depth of 20 cm considering three different future climate change scenarios. Climate scenarios included low, moderate, and high amounts of climate change and included estimated changes to monthly minimum, average, and maximum temperature, total monthly precipitation, and average monthly relative humidity at an 800 m × 800 m resolution. Historically, the modelled average SOC gain for Saskatchewan was 2.8 Mg ha−1. Future potential simulated SOC was lower over the next 30 years, with average SOC gains estimated to range from 1.4 to 1.7 Mg ha−1 by 2054 and 2.3 to 3.1 Mg ha−1 by 2100. There is also unequal spatial distribution of SOC stock gain potential, with the northern grain growing regions showing lower future potential. The predicted future gains will be at a lower rate than in the past with carbon sequestration rates dropping from 0.06 to less than 0.02 Mg ha−1 year−1. Additional management practices such as improved residue management and the introduction of crop varieties with increased below ground carbon inputs and more stable residues should be explored to offset the diminishing SOC returns from no-till.
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8 December 2024
Combining predictive soil mapping and process models to estimate future carbon sequestration potential under no-till
P.T. Sorenson,
A.K. Bedard-Haughn,
M. St. Luce
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carbon sequestration
CENTURY
no-till
Predictive Soil Mapping
soil organic carbon