It has been shown theoretically that sympatric speciation can occur if intraspecific competition is strong enough to induce disruptive selection. However, the plausibility of the involved processes is under debate, and many questions on the conditions for speciation remain unresolved. For instance, is strong disruptive selection sufficient for speciation? Which roles do genetic architecture and initial composition of the population play? How strong must assortative mating be before a population can split in two? These are some of the issues we address here. We investigate a diploid multilocus model of a quantitative trait that is under frequency-dependent selection caused by a balance of intraspecific competition and frequency-independent stabilizing selection. This trait also acts as mating character for assortment. It has been established previously that speciation can occur only if competition is strong enough to induce disruptive selection. We find that speciation becomes more difficult for very strong competition, because then extremely strong assortment is required. Thus, speciation is most likely for intermediate strengths of competition, where it requires strong, but not extremely strong, assortment. For this range of parameters, however, it is not obvious how assortment can evolve from low to high levels, because with moderately strong assortment less genetic variation is maintained than under weak or strong assortment—sometimes none at all. In addition to the strength of frequency-dependent competition and assortative mating, the roles of the number of loci, the distribution of allelic effects, the initial conditions, costs to being choosy, the strength of stabilizing selection, and the particular choice of the fitness function are explored. A multitude of possible evolutionary outcomes is observed, including loss of all genetic variation, splitting in two to five species, as well as very short and extremely long stable limit cycles. On the methodological side, we propose quantitative measures for deciding whether a given distribution reflects two (or more) reproductively isolated clusters.

Coevolution between parasites and hosts or predators and prey often involves multiple species with similar kinds of defenses and counter-defenses. Classic examples include the interactions between phytophagous insects and their host plants, thick-shelled invertebrates and their shell-crushing predators, and ungulates and their predators. There are three major hypotheses for the nonequilibrium coevolutionary dynamics of these multispecific trophic interactions: escalation in traits, cycles in traits leading to fluctuating polymorphisms, and coevolutionary alternation. The conditions under which cycles and escalation are likely to occur have been well developed theoretically. In contrast, the conditions favoring coevolutionary alternation—evolutionary fluctuations in predator or prey preference driven by evolutionary shifts in relative levels of prey defense and vice versa—have yet to be identified. Using a set of quantitative coevolutionary models, we demonstrate that coevolutionary alternation can occur across a wide range of biologically plausible conditions. The result is often repeated, and potentially rapid, evolutionary shifts in patterns of specialization within networks of interacting species.

The net effect of sexual selection on nonsexual fitness is controversial. On one side, elaborate display traits and preferences for them can be costly, reducing the nonsexual fitness of individuals possessing them, as well as their offspring. In contrast, sexual selection may reinforce nonsexual fitness if an individual's attractiveness and quality are genetically correlated. According to recent models, such good-genes mate choice should increase both the extent and rate of adaptation. We evolved 12 replicate populations of Drosophila serrata in a powerful two-way factorial experimental design to test the separate and combined contributions of natural and sexual selection to adaptation to a novel larval food resource. Populations evolving in the presence of natural selection had significantly higher mean nonsexual fitness when measured over three generations (13–15) during the course of experimental evolution (16– 23% increase). The effect of natural selection was even more substantial when measured in a standardized, monogamous mating environment at the end of the experiment (generation 16; 52% increase). In contrast, and despite strong sexual selection on display traits, there was no evidence from any of the four replicate fitness measures that sexual selection promoted adaptation. In addition, a comparison of fitness measures conducted under different mating environments demonstrated a significant direct cost of sexual selection to females, likely arising from some form of male-induced harm. Indirect benefits of sexual selection in promoting adaptation to this novel resource environment therefore appear to be absent in this species, despite prior evidence suggesting the operation of good-genes mate choice in their ancestral environment. How novel environments affect the operation of good-genes mate choice is a fundamental question for future sexual selection research.

Frequency-dependent disruptive selection is widely recognized as an important source of genetic variation. Its evolutionary consequences have been extensively studied using phenotypic evolutionary models, based on quantitative genetics, game theory, or adaptive dynamics. However, the genetic assumptions underlying these approaches are highly idealized and, even worse, predict different consequences of frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Population genetic models, by contrast, enable genotypic evolutionary models, but traditionally assume constant fitness values. Only a minority of these models thus addresses frequency-dependent selection, and only a few of these do so in a multilocus context. An inherent limitation of these remaining studies is that they only investigate the short-term maintenance of genetic variation. Consequently, the long-term evolution of multilocus characters under frequency-dependent disruptive selection remains poorly understood. We aim to bridge this gap between phenotypic and genotypic models by studying a multilocus version of Levene's soft-selection model. Individual-based simulations and deterministic approximations based on adaptive dynamics theory provide insights into the underlying evolutionary dynamics. Our analysis uncovers a general pattern of polymorphism formation and collapse, likely to apply to a wide variety of genetic systems: after convergence to a fitness minimum and the subsequent establishment of genetic polymorphism at multiple loci, genetic variation becomes increasingly concentrated on a few loci, until eventually only a single polymorphic locus remains. This evolutionary process combines features observed in quantitative genetics and adaptive dynamics models, and it can be explained as a consequence of changes in the selection regime that are inherent to frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Our findings demonstrate that the potential of frequency-dependent disruptive selection to maintain polygenic variation is considerably smaller than previously expected.

One of the oldest and most pervasive ideas in comparative embryology is the perceived evolutionary conservation of early ontogeny relative to late ontogeny. Karl Von Baer first noted the similarity of early ontogeny across taxa, and Ernst Haeckel and Charles Darwin gave evolutionary interpretation to this phenomenon. In spite of a resurgence of interest in comparative embryology and the development of mechanistic explanations for Von Baer's law, the pattern itself has been largely untested. Here, I use statistical phylogenetic approaches to show that Von Baer's law is an unnecessarily complex explanation of the patterns of ontogenetic timing in several clades of vertebrates. Von Baer's law suggests a positive correlation between ontogenetic time and amount of evolutionary change. I compare ranked position in ontogeny to frequency of evolutionary change in rank for developmental events and find that these measures are not correlated, thus failing to support Von Baer's model. An alternative model that postulates that small changes in ontogenetic rank are evolutionarily easier than large changes is tentatively supported.

The initial evolution of conspicuous warning signals presents an evolutionary problem because selection against rare conspicuous signals is presumed to be strong, and new signals are rare when they first arise. Several possible solutions have been offered to solve this apparent evolutionary paradox, but disagreement persists over the plausibility of some of the proposed mechanisms. In this paper, we construct a deterministic numerical simulation model that allows us to derive the strength of selection on novel warning signals in a wide range of biologically relevant situations. We study the effects of predator psychology (learning, rate of mistaken attacks, and neophobia) on selection. We also study the how prey escape, predation intensity, number of predators, and abundance of different prey types affects selection. The model provides several important results. Selection on novel warning signals is number rather than frequency dependent. In most cases, there exists a threshold number of aposematic individuals below which aposematism is selected against and above which aposematism is selected for. Signal conspicuousness (which increases detection rate) and distinctiveness (which allows predator to distinguish defended from nondefended prey) have opposing effects on evolution of warning signals. A more conspicuous warning signal cannot evolve unless it makes the prey more distinctive from palatable prey, reducing mistaken attacks by predators. A novel warning signal that is learned quickly can spread from lower abundance more easily than a signal that is learned more slowly. However, the relative rate at which the resident signal and the novel signal are learned is irrelevant for the spread of the novel signal. Long-lasting neophobia can facilitate the spread of novel warning signals. Individual selection via the ability of defended prey to escape from predator is not likely to facilitate evolution of conspicuous warning signals if both the resident (cryptic) morph and the novel morph have the same escape probability. Predation intensity (defined as the proportion of palatable prey eaten by the predator) has a strong effect on selection. More intense predation results in strong selection against rare signals, but also strong selective advantage to common signals. The threshold number of aposematic individuals is lower when predation is intense. Thus, the evolution of warning signals may be more likely in environments where predation is intense. The effect of numbers of predators depends on whether predation intensity also changes. When predation intensity is constant, increasing numbers of predators raises the threshold number of aposematic individuals, and thus makes evolution of aposematism more difficult. If predation intensity increases in parallel with number of predators, the threshold number of aposematic individuals does not change much, but selection becomes more intense on both sides of the threshold.

In plants, genes may disperse through both pollen and seeds. Here we provide a first theoretical study of the mechanisms and consequences of the joint evolution of pollen and seed dispersal. We focus on hermaphroditic self-compatible species distributed in structured populations, assuming island dispersal of pollen and seeds among small patches of plants within large populations. Three traits are studied: the rate of among-patch seed dispersal, the rate of among-patch pollen dispersal, and the rate of within-patch pollen movement. We first analytically derive the evolutionary equilibrium state of each trait, dissect the pairwise selective interactions, and describe the joint three-trait evolutionary equilibrium under the cost of dispersal and kin competition. These results are then analytically and numerically extended to the case when selfed seeds suffer from depressed competitiveness (inbreeding depression, no heterosis). Finally individual-based simulations are used to account for a more realistic model of inbreeding load. Pollen movement is shown to generate opposite selection pressures on seed dispersal depending on spatial scale: within-patch pollen movement favors seed dispersal, whereas among-patch pollen dispersal inhibits seed dispersal. Seed dispersal selects for short-distance movements of pollen and it selects against long-distance dispersal. These interactions shape the joint evolution of these traits. Kin competition favors among-patch seed dispersal over among-patch pollen dispersal for low costs of within-patch pollen movement (and vice versa for significant costs of within-patch pollen movement). Inbreeding depression favors allogamy through high rates of within- and among-patch pollen movement. Surprisingly, it may select either for or against seed dispersal depending on the cost of among-patch pollen dispersal. Heterosis favors increased among-patch dispersal through pollen and seeds. But because these two stages inhibit each other, their joint evolution might lead to decreased seed dispersal in the presence of heterosis. Of crucial importance are the costs of dispersal.

We measured the mean fitness of populations of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii maintained in the laboratory as obligately sexual or asexual populations for about 100 sexual cycles and about 1000 asexual generations. Sexuality (random gamete fusion followed by meiosis) is expected to reduce mutational load and increase mean fitness by combining deleterious mutations from different lines of descent. We found no evidence for this process of mutation clearance: the mean fitness of sexual populations did not exceed that of asexual populations, whether measured through competition or in pure culture. We found instead that sexual progeny suffer an immediate loss in fitness, and that sexual lines maintain genetic variance for fitness. We suggest that sexual populations at equilibrium with selection in a benign environment may be mixtures of several or many epistatic genotypes with nearly equal fitness. Recombination between these genotypes reduces mean fitness and creates genetic variance for fitness. This may provide fuel for continued selection should the environment change.

Environmental variation that is not predictably related to cues is expected to drive the evolution of bet-hedging strategies. The high variance observed in the timing of seed germination has led to it being the most cited diversification strategy in the theoretical bet-hedging literature. Despite this theoretical focus, virtually nothing is known about the mechanisms responsible for the generation of individual-level diversification. Here we report analyses of sources of variation in timing of germination within seasons, germination fraction over two generations and three sequential seasons, and the genetic correlation structure of these traits using almost 10,000 seeds from more than 100 genotypes of the monocarpic perennial Lobelia inflata. Microenvironmental analysis of time to germination suggests that extreme sensitivity to environmental gradients, or microplasticity, even within a homogeneous growth chamber, may act as an effective individual-level diversification mechanism and explains more than 30% of variance in time to germination. The heritability of within-season timing of germination was low (h² = 0.07) but significant under homogeneous conditions. Consistent with individual-level diversification, this low h² was attributable not to low additive genetic variance, but to an unusually high coefficient of residual variation in time to germination. Despite high power to detect additive genetic variance in within-season diversification, it was low and indistinguishable from zero. Restricted maximum likelihood detected significant genetic variation for germination fraction (h² = 0.18) under homogeneous conditions. Unexpectedly, this heritability was positive when measured within a generation by sibling analysis and negative when measured across generations by offspring-on-parent regression. The consistency of dormancy fraction over multiple delays, a major premise of Cohen's classic model, was supported by a strong genetic correlation (r = 0.468) observed for a cohort's germination fraction over two seasons. We discuss implications of the results for the evolution of bet hedging and highlight the need for further empirical study of the causal components of diversification.

Poecilogony, a rare phenomenon in marine invertebrates, occurs when alternative larval morphs differing in dispersal potential or trophic mode are produced from a single genome. Because both poecilogony and cryptic species are prevalent among sea slugs in the suborder Sacoglossa (Gastropoda: Opisthobranchia), molecular data are needed to confirm cases of variable development and to place them in a phylogenetic context. The nominal species Alderia modesta produces long-lived, feeding larvae throughout the North Atlantic and Pacific, but in California can also produce short-lived larvae that metamorphose without feeding. We collected morphological, developmental, and molecular data for Alderia from 17 sites spanning the eastern and western Pacific and North Atlantic. Estuaries south of Bodega Harbor, California, contained a cryptic species (hereafter Alderia sp.) with variable development, sister to the strictly planktotrophic A. modesta. The smaller Alderia sp. seasonally toggled between planktotrophy and lecithotrophy, with some individuals differing in development but sharing mitochondrial DNA haplotypes. The sibling species overlapped in Tomales Bay, California, but showed no evidence of hybridization; laboratory mating trials suggest postzygotic isolation has arisen. Intra- and interspecific divergence times were estimated using a molecular clock calibrated with geminate sacoglossans. Speciation occurred about 4.1 million years ago during a major marine radiation in the eastern Pacific, when large inland embayments in California may have isolated ancestral populations. Atlantic and Pacific A. modesta diverged about 1.7 million years ago, suggesting trans-Arctic gene flow was interrupted by Pleistocene glaciation. Both Alderia species showed evidence of late Pleistocene population expansion, but the southern Alderia sp. likely experienced a more pronounced bottleneck. Reduced body size may have incurred selection against obligate planktotrophy in Alderia sp. by limiting fecundity in the face of high larval mortality rates in warm months. Alternatively, poecilogony may be an adaptive response to seasonal opening of estuaries, facilitating dispersal by long-lived larvae. An improved understanding of the forces controlling seasonal shifts in development in Alderia sp. may yield insight into the evolutionary forces promoting transitions to nonfeeding larvae.

Species richness on island or islandlike systems is a function of colonization, within-island speciation, and extinction. Here we evaluate the relative importance of the first two of these processes as a function of the biogeographical and ecological attributes of islands using the Galápagos endemic land snails of the genus Bulimulus, the most species-rich radiation of these islands. Species in this clade have colonized almost all major islands and are found in five of the six described vegetation zones. We use molecular phylogenetics (based on COI and ITS1 sequence data) to infer the diversification patterns of extant species of Bulimulus, and multiple regression to investigate the causes of variation among islands in species richness. Maximum-likelihood, Bayesian, and maximum-parsimony analyses yield well-resolved trees with similar topologies. The phylogeny obtained supports the progression rule hypothesis, with species found on older emerged islands connecting at deeper nodes. For all but two island species assemblages we find support for only one or two colonization events, indicating that within-island speciation has an important role in the formation of species on these islands. Even though speciation through colonization is not common, island insularity (distance to nearest major island) is a significant predictor of species richness resulting from interisland colonization alone. However, island insularity has no effect on the overall bulimulid species richness per island. Habitat diversity (measured as plant species diversity), island elevation, and island area, all of which are indirect measures of niche space, are strong predictors of overall bulimulid land snail species richness. Island age is also an important independent predictor of overall species richness, with older islands harboring more species than younger islands. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the diversification of Galápagos bulimulid land snails has been driven by a combination of geographic factors (island age, size, and location), which affect colonization patterns, and ecological factors, such as plant species diversity, that foster within-island speciation.

How ecological, developmental and genetic mechanisms interact in the genesis and subsequent diversification of morphological novelties is unknown for the vast majority of traits and organisms. Here we explore the ecological, developmental, and genetic underpinnings of a class of traits that is both novel and highly diverse: beetle horns. Specifically, we focus on the origin and diversification of a particular horn type, those protruding from the pronotum, in the genus Onthophagus, a particularly speciose and morphologically diverse genus of horned beetles. We begin by documenting immature development of nine Onthophagus species and show that all of these species express pronotal horns in a developmentally transient fashion in at least one or both sexes. Similar to species that retain their horns to adulthood, transient horns grow during late larval development and are clearly visible in pupae. However, unlike species that express horns as adults, transient horns are resorbed during pupal development. In a large number of species this mechanisms allows fully horned pupae to molt into entirely hornless adults. Consequently, far more Onthophagus species appear to possess the ability to develop pronotal horns than is indicated by their adult phenotypes. We use our data to expand a recent phylogeny of the genus Onthophagus to explore how the widespread existence of developmentally transient horns alters our understanding of the origin and dynamics of morphological innovation and diversification in this genus. We find that including transient horn development into the phylogeny dramatically reduces the number of independent origins required to explain extant diversity patters and suggest that pronotal horns may have originated only a few times, or possibly only once, during early Onthophagus evolution. We then propose a new and previously undescribed function for pronotal horns during immature development. We provide histological as well as experimental data that illustrate that pronotal horns are crucial for successful ecdysis of the larval head capsule during the larval-to-pupal molt, and that this molting function appears to be unique to the genus Onthophagus and absent in the other scarabaeine genera. We discuss how this additional function may help explain the existence and maintenance of developmentally transient horns, and how at least some horn types of adult beetles may have evolved as exaptations from pupal structures originally evolved to perform an unrelated function.

Evolutionary “dead ends” result from traits that are selectively advantageous in the short term but ultimately result in lowered diversification rates of lineages. In spiders, 23 species scattered across eight families share a social system in which individuals live in colonies and cooperate in nest maintenance, prey capture, and brood care. Most of these species are inbred and have highly female-biased sex ratios. Here we show that in Theridiidae this social system originated eight to nine times independently among 11 to 12 species for a remarkable 18 to 19 origins across spiders. In Theridiidae, the origins cluster significantly in one clade marked by a possible preadaptation: extended maternal care. In most derivations, sociality is limited to isolated species: social species are sister to social species only thrice. To examine whether sociality in spiders represents an evolutionary dead end, we develop a test that compares the observed phylogenetic isolation of social species to the simulated evolution of social and non-social clades under equal diversification rates, and find that sociality in Theridiidae is significantly isolated. Because social clades are not in general smaller than their nonsocial sister clades, the “spindly” phylogenetic pattern—many tiny replicate social clades—may be explained by extinction rapid enough that a nonsocial sister group does not have time to diversify while the social lineage remains extant. In this case, this repeated origin and extinction of sociality suggests a conflict between the short-term benefits and long-term costs of inbred sociality. Although benefits of group living may initially outweigh costs of inbreeding (hence the replicate origins), in the long run the subdivision of the populations in relatively small and highly inbred colony lineages may result in higher extinction, thus an evolutionary dead end.

Well-studied model systems present ideal opportunities to understand the relative roles of contemporary selection versus historical processes in determining population differentiation and speciation. Although guppy populations in Trinidad have been a model for studies of evolutionary ecology and sexual selection for more than 50 years, this work has been conducted with little understanding of the phylogenetic history of this species. We used variation in nuclear (X-src) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences to examine the phylogeographic history of Poecilia reticulata Peters (the guppy) across its entire natural range, and to test whether patterns of morphological divergence are a consequence of parallel evolution. Phylogenetic, nested clade, population genetic, and demographic analyses were conducted to investigate patterns of genetic structure at several temporal scales and are discussed in relation to vicariant events, such as tectonic activity and glacial cycles, shaping northeast South American river drainages. The mtDNA phylogeny defined five major lineages, each associated with one or more river drainages, and analysis of molecular variance also detected geographic structuring among these river drainages in an evolutionarily conserved nuclear (X-src) locus. Nested clade and other demographic analyses suggest that the eastern Venezuela/ western Trinidad region is likely the center of origin of P. reticulata. Mantel tests show that the divergence of morphological characters, known to differentiate on a local scale in response to natural and sexual selection pressures, is not associated with mtDNA genetic distance; however, TreeScan analysis identified several significant associations of these characters with the haplotype tree. Parallel upstream/downstream patterns of morphological adaptation in response to selection pressures reported in P. reticulata within Trinidad rivers appears to persist across the natural range. Our results together with previous studies suggest that, although morphological variation in P. reticulata is primarily attributed to selection, phylogeographic history may also play a role.

Two mutually exclusive hypotheses have been put forward to explain the evolution and adaptive function of melanin-based color traits. According to sexual selection theory melanism is a directionally selected signal of individual quality, whereas theory on the maintenance of genetic polymorphism proposes that alternative melanin-based variants achieve equal fitness. Alpine swift (Apus melba) males and females have a conspicuous patch of white feathers on the breast with their rachis varying continuously from white to black, and hence the breast varies from white to striated. If this trait is a sexually selected signal of quality, its expression should be condition dependent and the degree of melanism directionally selected. If variation in melanism is a polymorphism, its expression should be genetically determined and fitness of melanin-based variants equal. We experimentally tested these predictions by exchanging eggs or hatchlings between randomly chosen nests and by estimating survival and reproduction in relation to melanism. We found that breast melanism is heritable and that the environment and body condition do not significantly influence its expression. Between 5 and 50 days of age nestlings were heavier and their wings longer when breast feathers of their biological father were blacker, and they also fledged at a younger age. This shows that aspects of offspring quality covary positively with the degree of melanism. However, this did not result in directional selection because nestling survival and recruitment in the local breeding population were not associated with father breast melanism. Furthermore, adult survival, age at first reproduction and probability of skipping reproduction did not covary with the degree of melanism. Genetic variation in breast melanism is therefore maintained either because nonmelanic males achieve fitness similar to melanic males via a different route than producing fast-growing offspring, or because the advantage of producing fast-growing offspring is not sufficiently pronounced to result in directional selection.

A crucial assumption underlying the breeders' equation is that selection acts directly on the trait of interest, and not on an unmeasured environmental factor which affects both fitness and the trait. Such an environmentally induced covariance between a trait and fitness has been repeatedly proposed as an explanation for the lack of response to selection on avian breeding time. We tested this hypothesis using a long-term dataset from a Dutch great tit (Parus major) population. Although there was strong selection for earlier breeding in this population, egg-laying dates have changed only marginally over the last decades. Using a so-called animal model, we quantified the additive genetic variance in breeding time and predicted breeding values for females. Subsequently, we compared selection at the phenotypic and genetic levels for two fitness components, fecundity and adult survival. We found no evidence for an environmentally caused covariance between breeding time and fitness or counteracting selection on the different fitness components. Consequently, breeding time should respond to selection but the expected response to selection was too small to be detected.

The lek paradox, in which female choice erodes genetic variation in male sexually selected traits, is a fundamental issue in sexual selection. If females gain only genetic benefits from preferentially having their ova fertilized by males with particular traits, what maintains variation in these traits? Under strong directional selection mediated through mate choice, the alleles for beneficial male traits are expected to go to fixation and exhibit little variation. A theoretical solution to the lek paradox is the genic capture hypothesis which states that: costly male traits subject to female choice are condition dependent, that male condition is dependent on genes at many loci and exhibits additive genetic variance, and that positive genetic correlations exist between sexually selected traits and condition. Using a captive population of the zebra finch Taeniopygia guttata, we tested two key predictions from this model: (1) that genetic variance exists in beak color which is a sexually selected trait, but also in condition and immune function, and (2) that positive genetic correlations exist between condition and beak color, and between beak color, condition, and immune function. Genetic parameters were estimated from a large breeding experiment involving 81 sires, 972 offspring, a pedigree of 1526 individuals, using the animal model. We employed the following index of body condition: residuals from a log-log plot of body mass on tarsus length following a standardized and extended period of exercise, in which residual mass is known to reflect fat and protein reserves. Our results were broadly consistent with the genic capture hypothesis because we found (1) additive genetic variation in beak color and immune function and condition, and (2) positive genetic correlations between condition and beak color, and between condition, beak color, and several assays of immune responsiveness. However, both of these results need qualification. In the first case we identified an important general problem in estimating the coefficient of additive genetic variance (CV_A) in body condition. In the second case, although most of the genetic correlations were positive as predicted, only some were statistically significant, possibly due to our relatively small sample sizes, because genetic correlations typically have large standard errors and therefore require very large samples to be statistically significant. The statistically significant, positive genetic correlations included those between beak color and immune function (response to tetanus), and between immune function (response to tetanus) and condition, both of which indicate that females gain good genes from mating with males in good condition and/or with a redder beak color. We discuss the implications of our results for devising more rigorous but pragmatic tests of the genic capture hypothesis.

Comparison of population structure between studies can be difficult, because the value of the often-used F_ST-statistic depends on the amount of genetic variation within populations. Recently, a standardized measure of genetic differentiation was developed based on G_ST, which addressed this problem, though no method was provided to estimate this standardized measure without bias. Here I present a method to estimate a standardized measure of population differentiation based on the analysis of molecular variance framework. One advantage of the method is that it can be readily expanded to include different hierarchical levels in the tested population structure.

The evolution of long-distance migratory behavior from sedentary populations is a central problem in studies of animal migration. Three crucial issues that remain unresolved are: (1) the biotic and abiotic factors promoting evolution of migratory behavior, (2) the geographic origin of ancestral sedentary populations, and (3) the time scale over which migration evolves. We test the role of postglacial population expansions during the Quaternary in driving the evolution of songbird migration against prevailing views favoring the role of intraspecific competition. In contrast to previous attempts to investigate these questions using interspecific phylogenies, we adopt an intraspecific approach and examine the phylogeography of a North American songbird, the chipping sparrow (Spizella passerina), which exhibits both long-distance migratory behavior in temperate North America and sedentary behavior in Mexico and Central America. We show that migratory populations descend from sedentary populations in southern Mexico and that migration has evolved as a result of a northward population expansion into temperate North America since the last glacial maximum 18,000 years ago. Migration appears to have evolved rapidly in some species as populations colonized areas of high seasonality in the temperate zone. The phylogeography of the yellow-eyed junco (Junco phaeonotus), a strictly sedentary species, provides a null model supporting the view that northward range expansions were driven solely by environmental factors and not by a predisposition to evolve migratory behavior. These results provide the strongest evidence to date that historical climate patterns can drive the rapid evolution of avian migration in natural populations, and they suggest a general mechanism for the repeated evolution of migration within and across bird lineages.