Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) forms the backbone of statistical inference in invasive plant science. Over 95% of research articles in Invasive Plant Science and Management report NHST results such as P-values or statistics closely related to P-values such as least significant differences. Unfortunately, NHST results are less informative than their ubiquity implies. P-values are hard to interpret and are regularly misinterpreted. Also, P-values do not provide estimates of the magnitudes and uncertainties of studied effects, and these effect size estimates are what invasive plant scientists care about most. In this paper, we reanalyze four datasets (two of our own and two of our colleagues; studies put forth as examples in this paper are used with permission of their authors) to illustrate limitations of NHST. The re-analyses are used to build a case for confidence intervals as preferable alternatives to P-values. Confidence intervals indicate effect sizes, and compared to P-values, confidence intervals provide more complete, intuitively appealing information on what data do/do not indicate.

Invasive plants have devastating effects on ecosystems and biodiversity that early intervention can prevent. Eradication or containment of new invasions is difficult to achieve because of constraints posed by the low density and detectability of individuals. Domestic dogs trained to cue on distinctive scents might provide an effective method to detect spotted knapweed. The objective of this study was to compare the accuracy and detection distances of dogs to humans in locating new spotted knapweed (Centaurea stoebe) invasions. Three dogs, trained to detect knapweed using scent discrimination and tracking techniques, were compared with human surveyors. Seven sampling units (0.5 ha [1.2 ac]) were delineated in a grazed dryland pasture. Dogs, with their handlers, and human surveyors performed line-transect surveys in fall 2005 and spring, summer, and fall 2006. Dog accuracy for large-size knapweed targets (infestations 0.52 m³ [18.4 ft³]) was similar to human accuracy and better than humans (94 vs. 78%) for medium-size targets (infestations 0.13m³). Dog accuracy (67%) was greater (> 81% probability) than humans (34%) for small targets (plants; 0.02 m³). Overall dog accuracy (81%) and F-measure scores (86%) were better than human scores, 59% and 74%, respectively. Human precision was greater (100%) than dogs at 94%. Dogs detected a larger percentage of small targets (80%) at distances greater than 7.9 m (26 ft) compared with humans at only 20%. Our results indicate dogs are more accurate than humans are, especially at critical detection of small spotted knapweed plants, and from greater distances. Invasive plant monitoring using detection dogs can provide greater overall accuracy of plant detection.

Nomenclature: Domestic dogs, Canis familiaris L.; spotted knapweed, Centaurea stoebe L.

In the Great Basin of the western United States, expansion of Pinus monophylla (singleleaf piñyon) and Juniperus osteosperma (Utah juniper) out of historic woodlands and into Artemisia spp. (sagebrush) shrubland communities can facilitate the invasion of exotic downy brome (Bromus tectorum) and lead to decreases in ecological and economic values of shrublands. This expansion has, therefore, been the focus of management efforts, including the thinning or removal of trees in areas that were historically shrubland. Our study examined the effects of tree thinning at two sites located in eastern Nevada, near the center of the Great Basin. Such projects can be controversial, so our goal was to estimate and document the ecological effects of low-disturbance tree thinning at these two sites. Both sites were mechanically thinned using a feller-buncher and were aerially seeded with native grasses. Aerial seeding had no apparent effect at either site. The site that had lower tree cover before treatment (Ely, NV) showed an increase in native forbs and a small increase in invasives. The site that initially had very high tree cover and low shrub cover (Mt. Wilson, NV) showed increases in native forbs and species diversity and a substantial increase in invasives. We conclude that low-disturbance methods for thinning encroaching trees can have positive ecological effects in shrublands but that the initial cover of both trees and native herbaceous species should be considered to determine the potential of the site to recover naturally from the seedbank and the risk of invasion by downy brome.

Nomenclature: Downy brome, Bromus tectorum L.; singleleaf piñyon, Pinus monophylla Torr. & Frém. Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma (Torr.) Little IUPOS; sagebrush, Artemisia spp.

Lepidium latifolium (perennial pepperweed) is recognized as a threat to wetland habitats throughout much of the western United States, but its role in tidal marshes has not been explored. Over three seasons in three regions of San Francisco Estuary (Suisun, San Pablo, and South San Francisco bays), we characterized locations in tidal marshes where monotypic stands of L. latifolium are replacing the native Sarcocornia pacifica (pickleweed). Soils within L. latifolium stands had significantly lower moisture, salinity, organic matter, and carbon ∶ nitrogen (C ∶ N) and higher pH than in adjacent S. pacifica stands at similar elevation and distance from channels. In addition, L. latifolium canopies were 2 to 3 times taller, thus increasing light reaching soils, and tended to support different insect/spider assemblages (sampled only at the Suisun site). Patterns were generally consistent across the three sites, although less pronounced for some measures at the South Bay site. Overall, these data suggest that L. latifolium invasion of tidal marshes is leading to modification of both structural and functional properties, several of which might further facilitate spread of the invader; however, additional study is needed to determine cause vs. effect for several soil characteristics.

Nomenclature: Perennial pepperweed, Lepidium latifolium Linnaeus, Sarcocornia pacifica (Standl.) A. J. Scott.

Sulfur cinquefoil is native to Eurasia and has invaded meadows and grasslands of North America. It occurs in intermountain valleys of the Rocky Mountains, including a nature reserve in northwest Montana that supports a mosaic of mesic fescue and xeric needlegrass grassland communities. We did tests to determine germination requirements, followed the fate of mapped sulfur cinquefoil from 1998 to 2005 to determine vital rates, and used a matrix modeling framework to analyze population-level dynamics. Sulfur cinquefoil plants were highly fecund; large plants produced > 10,000 seeds that require light for germination. The survivorship curve of the 1999 cohort suggested low juvenile but high adult survival. Simulations indicated that a 10% decline in survival would decrease population size more than a 10% decline in recruitment. Annual recruitment, growth of nonreproductive plants, survival, and flowering frequency of sulfur cinquefoil were all higher in the three needlegrass sample plots compared with the one fescue plot, and projected equilibrium sulfur cinquefoil populations were approximately 12 times larger in needlegrass than fescue grasslands. Our results suggest that biological control agents that negatively affect survival, such as root borers, might be more effective at controlling established sulfur cinquefoil populations than those that diminish seed production. Our results also suggest that sulfur cinquefoil might have more potential to become dominant in xeric grasslands and demonstrate the need for doing multiple demographic studies over a variety of habitats because the same species will respond differently in different habitats.

Nomenclature: Sulfur cinquefoil, Potentilla recta L.; fescue, Festuca idahoensis Elmer and Festuca scabrella Hook.; needlegrass, Stipa comata Tri. & Rupr.

Yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) is an exotic winter annual forb that is aggressively invasive and problematic in much of California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Yellow starthistle control is particularly challenging in canyon rangelands where accessibility limits control options. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of late-season targeted goat grazing on yellow starthistle and nontarget grasses and forbs. A 3-yr grazing study was initiated in 2006 on a 380-ha (939 acres) canyon grassland site infested with yellow starthistle near White Bird, ID. Twenty-four paired plots were established, with each pair including a fenced subplot to exclude grazing and a similar-sized adjacent subplot that was grazed. Density of yellow starthistle plants and seedheads was assessed after grazing of each plot in all 3 yr and before grazing in the second and third years. Canopy cover of yellow starthistle, grasses, and forbs also was measured. Grazed subplots had 58% fewer yellow starthistle plants than the ungrazed controls after grazing was applied and 94% fewer seedheads after 3 yr of grazing. Cover of yellow starthistle did not differ between grazed and ungrazed subplots after grazing in 2006, whereas grazing decreased yellow starthistle cover in 2007 and 2008 by about 75%. Goat grazing had little impact on canopy cover of grasses and resident forbs, with the exception of after grazing in 2007 when there was less forb cover in grazed areas compared with ungrazed areas. Late-season (i.e., July to November) targeted goat grazing appears to be an effective way to reduce yellow starthistle plant densities at landscape scales, which creates a large window of opportunity for grazing treatment and flexibility for land and livestock managers.

Nomenclature: Yellow starthistle; Centaurea solstitialis L. CENSO.

Aminopyralid efficacy on Canada thistle (Cirsium arvense) and potential to injure native species was evaluated in a restored prairie at the Glacial Ridge Preserve managed by The Nature Conservancy in Polk County, MN. Canada thistle stem density was reduced from 17 to 0.1 stems m⁻² 10 mo after treatment (MAT) with aminopyralid applied in the fall at 120 g ha⁻¹. Aminopyralid also altered the composition of both Canada thistle–infested and native plant communities. Aminopyralid controlled Canada thistle and removed or reduced several undesirable forb species from the restored prairie communities, such as absinth wormwood (Artemisia absinthium) and perennial sowthistle (Sonchus arvensis). A number of high seral forbs were also reduced or removed by aminopyralid, including maximilian sunflower (Helianthus maximiliani) and purple prairie clover (Dalea purpurea). Foliar cover of high seral forbs in the native plant community was reduced from 12.2 to 7% 22 MAT. The cover of high seral grass species, such as big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) and Indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans) increased after aminopyralid application in both the Canada thistle–infested and native plant communities and averaged 41.4% cover compared with only 19.4% before removal of Canada thistle. Species richness, evenness, and diversity were reduced after aminopyralid application in both Canada thistle–infested and native plant communities. However, the benefits of Canada thistle control, removal of undesirable species, and the increase in native grass cover should lead to an overall improvement in the long-term stability and composition of the restored prairie plant community, which likely outweigh the short-term effects of a Canada thistle control program.

Nomenclature: Aminopyralid; absinth wormwood, Artemisia absinthium L.; Canada thistle, Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop.; perennial sowthistle, Sonchus arvensis L.; big bluestem, Andropogon gerardii Vitman; Indiangrass, Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash; maximilian sunflower, Helianthus maximiliani Schrad.; purple prairie clover, Dalea purpurea Vent.

Invasion of nutrient-poor habitats might be related to the ability of a species to exploit nutrient-rich microsites. Recent research suggests fast-growing species might have a greater ability to allocate root biomass to nutrient-rich microsites (root foraging precision) than slow-growing species. We examined if differences in relative growth rate (RGR) between invasive and native species were related to differences in foraging precision. We hypothesized that invasive species would: (1) have greater foraging precision than native species but (2) greater foraging precision would come at a cost in terms of root nutrient uptake rate. Foraging precision was evaluated on plants growing in soils with uniform or patchy nutrient distribution. Plants were harvested at a common time and a common developmental stage to separate indirect effects of RGR on foraging. Nutrient uptake rate was examined by exposing plants to a low or high nitrogen pulse. Invasives foraged more precisely than natives but had lower nitrogen uptake rate. Although these results support the idea of a positive relationship between RGR and foraging precision, biomass production in heterogeneous soils showed no relationship to foraging precision. Instead, species with greater RGR produced more biomass and root length across all treatments, allowing greater nutrient capture in heterogeneous soils. Although these results do not exclude a role for proliferation in influencing invasion of nutrient-poor systems or the potential for heterogeneity to influence population processes, these results suggest other traits may have an overriding importance in determining invader success in these systems.

English ivy is an exotic liana that invades forests by forming dense monocultures on forest floors and by climbing trees. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of high-intensity–short-duration goat browsing to control English ivy in the Willamette Valley of Oregon. Species composition and percent cover were determined in August 2006 before the first browsing treatment and before and after treatments in 2006 and 2007. A final assessment was made in July 2008. Browsing effects were evaluated by comparison of multiple means statistical methods. English ivy cover declined significantly in samples browsed once or twice compared with untreated samples. The difference between levels of browsing was also significant, indicating that repetition of browsing for a second year is effective. Species composition change was minimal, with the appearance of sword fern and removal of Himalayan blackberry from 2006 to 2008.

Nomenclature: English ivy, Hedera spp., goats, Himalayan blackberry, Rubus armeniacus Focke, RUBDI.

Invasive plants need to be managed after wildfire to suppress the invasive plant and to maintain or restore a desired plant community. Our study tested treatments that influence species availability and performance following a disturbance (wildfire). The overall objective was to determine the ability of herbicide and revegetation treatments to restore spotted knapweed–infested areas to desired plant communities after wildfire. The study consisted of a factorial combination of three herbicide application treatments (broadcast application, spot application, and no herbicide) and three seed mixture treatments (grass-only seed mix, a grass and forb seed mix, no seeding). Picloram was used for the herbicide. Both the broadcast and spot picloram application methods decreased spotted knapweed cover and density up to 80% while increasing desired grass cover and density up to 20% compared with the control. However, broadcast spraying picloram decreased species richness from 5.7 to 3.6 species 0.1 m⁻² and decreased desired forb density and cover compared with spot-applied picloram treatment. Spot spraying resulted in an increase in other undesired forbs compared with broadcast spraying. Seeding with desired species had no effect on spotted knapweed cover or density. Spot spraying may help maintain desired species richness while managing spotted knapweed.

Nomenclature: Picloram; spotted knapweed, Centaurea stoebe L. CEST8.

Lesser celandine (Ranunculus ficaria) is an ephemeral perennial introduced to North America from Europe for ornamental use. This species is becoming widespread in shady, moist woodlands and lawns in the northern United States and southern Canada. Despite its invasive attributes, lesser celandine continues to be marketed by the nursery sector. A hardy and easy plant to grow, lesser celandine has a dense compact growth form that makes it ideal for border plantings and showy flowers that make it a desirable garden species for early spring color. The species easily escapes cultivation, colonizing primarily moist woodland habitats. Once established, lesser celandine creates a monoculture and is purported to displace native ephemeral species. Several factors make control of lesser celandine difficult, including a large root structure, which facilitates clonal reproduction and spread. The ephemerality of lesser celandine results in a relatively brief window in which to apply control measures. Land managers need to be aware of this common garden species as a potentially invasive weed and need to be able to differentiate it from the similar native marsh marigold. Effective management strategies are needed to protect native woodland understory species and biodiversity in natural and seminatural areas of affected regions.

Nomenclature: Lesser celandine, Ranunculus ficaria L.