Balas, E.A., Uğurlu, A., and Balas, C.E., 2024. A hybrid probabilistic design model of riverine jetties incorporating three-dimensional numerical simulations of transport phenomena in the context of emerging climate change. In: Phillips, M.R.; Al-Naemi, S., and Duarte, C.M. (eds.), Coastlines under Global Change: Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2024 (Doha, Qatar). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 113, pp. 220-224. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208.

In the marine areas, rivers create the sediment budget for the coastlines. This procedure is of paramount importance to the sustainability of coastal lines. Jetties have been integral to transporting sediments from the rivers to the seas. Therefore, ensuring the optimum design of these jetties is crucial. Integrating climate change impacts into marine structures' design is also paramount in assuring their lifetime safety and serviceability. The deterministic design methods that are widely used do not consider the uncertainties and risks related to climate change. On the contrary, risk-based design models consider future risks and uncertainties linked to climate and environmental changes, thus ensuring infrastructure sustainability. The design of the coastal structures with such a model makes these structures withstand the adverse effects of climate change. In this interpretation, the Hybrid Hydrodynamic Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) Model for the risk evaluation of jetties is developed in the scope of this study. This model is employed to provide a reliable and robust method for estimating the stability of the jetty. It integrates various sub-models to consider the significant environmental factors affecting the limit state functions, including wind, wave, current, geotechnical conditions, and climate change. It utilizes Hydrotam-3D, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, to analyze under various environmental conditions. MCS is applied to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot be easily predicted due to the intervention of random variables. The new hybrid design model was applied to the Melen River Jetties on the Black Sea coast of Turkey, and thirty thousand simulations were conducted for jetties' stability conditions for the limit state functions. The lifetime failure probability was determined to be 10^-3, which means the structure is reliable under the effect of risk parameters such as sea level increase due to climate change when the design standards are considered.