We report the first documented observation of the potentially toxic cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis in Lake Erie and Sandusky Bay in 2005 (0.043–1.326 mg L⁻¹ wet weight, 16–1,942 trichomes mL⁻¹) and quantify the physical and chemical parameters and the cyanobacterial community composition contemporaneous to its occurrence. We hypothesize that the high temperature, low light intensity, and high nutrient content of Sandusky Bay, a shallow, drowned river mouth along the southwestern shore of Lake Erie, provides an ideal habitat for Cylindrospermopsis. This is consistent with published laboratory and field studies that show these physical and chemical conditions facilitate Cylindrospermopsis growth. Using multivariate statistics, we found that Cylindrospermopsis biomass correlated with high temperatures and shallow depths, conditions often found in Sandusky Bay. Light climate and nutrient concentrations were not associated with Cylindrospermopsis biomass, most likely because the light climate did not systematically change during the season and because nutrients exceeded demand. We propose that Cylindrospermopsis will increase in importance in Lake Erie, as previous research on climate change in the Great Lakes region predicts future higher water temperatures and lower water levels.

The USGS-Great Lakes Science Center has collected dreissenid mussels annually from Lake Michigan since zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) became a significant portion of the bottom-trawl catch in 1999. For this study, we investigated dreissenid distribution, body mass, and recruitment at different depths in Lake Michigan during 2001–2003. The highest densities of dreissenid biomass were observed from depths of 27 to 46 m. The biomass of quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis) increased exponentially during 2001–2003, while that of zebra mussels did not change significantly. Body mass (standardized for a given shell length) of both species was lowest from depths of 27 to 37m, highest from 55 to 64 m, and declined linearly at deeper depths during 2001–2003. Recruitment in 2003, as characterized by the proportion of mussels < 11 mm in the catch, varied with depth and lake region. For quagga mussels, recruitment declined linearly with depth, and was highest in northern Lake Michigan. For zebra mussels, recruitment generally declined non-linearly with depth, although the pattern was different for north, mid, and southern Lake Michigan. Our analyses suggest that quagga mussels could overtake zebra mussels and become the most abundant mollusk in terms of biomass in Lake Michigan.

The sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) is an invasive, parasitic species with a long history of decimating fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The sea lamprey life cycle consists of stream larval ammocoete, open water parasitic, and adult spawning phases. Population control of sea lamprey is achieved mainly through the application of chemical lampricides that target the sedentary larval stage. The physical characteristics of preferred ammocoete habitat are well defined at the sub-reach scale (< 50 m). We tested whether the spatial distribution of beds of preferred ammocoete habitat depends upon a specific set of geomorphic variables (field-measured slope, and geographic information system (GIS)-derived curvature, radius of curvature, presence of a confluence, and valley wall type). We tested for this relationship at several spatial scales of stream length ranging from 50 m to 300 m, on the East Branch of the Chagrin River, Ohio, USA, a tributary stream to Lake Erie. Of the five geomorphic variables tested, field-measured slope and radius of curvature influence the probability of a stream segment containing preferred habitat at a stream segment length of 50 m. We found no relationships at longer stream segment lengths. GIS-estimated slopes were not sufficiently accurate at such short segment lengths, so the final model included radius of curvature only. These results are applicable to the Empiric Stream Treatment Ranking (ESTR) system, which ranks tributaries for treatment with lampricide based partially on the total amount of preferred ammocoete habitat. GIS-based estimates of the total amount of preferred ammocoete habitat may complement current field-based estimates, or provide a basis for nested sampling designs.

The Lake Michigan model, MICH1, was developed more than 30 years ago. This framework was evaluated using field data collected in 1976 and was later applied to predict total phosphorus and phytoplankton concentrations in Lake Michigan during the 1980s and early 1990s. With a renewed interest in the interaction of phytoplankton with toxics and the applicability to Total Maximum Daily Load studies, several new models have been developed and older models have been revived. As part of our interest in plankton dynamics in Lake Michigan, the MICH1 model was resurrected. The model was evaluated over the 1976–1995 period, with a surprisingly good model fit to lake-wide average total phosphorus (TP) field data. However, the model was less successful in mimicking the chlorophyll-a measurements, especially in the hypolimnion. Given the results, the model was applied to perform a few long-term TP model simulations. Using the model with average 1994–95 phosphorus loadings, a steady state was reached within approximately 20 years, and the lakewide phosphorus concentration was below the International Joint Commission water quality guideline of 7 μg/L. This exercise demonstrated that a relatively simple, four-segment model was able to mimic the TP lake-wide data well. However, this model was less suitable to predict future chlorophyll-a concentrations due to the limitation in the representation of the foodchain and the difficulty of the coarse segmentation of the model to capture the deep chlorophyll-a layer. Strengths and limitations of this model can guide future development of eutrophication models for Lake Michigan and the other Great Lakes.

Escherichia coli distribution and persistence in nearshore Lake Michigan were assessed following heavy rains and sanitary sewer overflow (SSO) and combined sewer overflow (CSO) events over a 5-year period, including an 18-day period following 25.4 cm of rainfall in which intensive studies were conducted following multiple CSO and SSO events. E. coli levels in the Milwaukee estuary and harbor following SSO and CSO events ranged from 10 =⁴ to nearly 10⁵ CFU/100 mL, which were significantly higher (p ≤ 0.05) than levels following rainfall alone. Sites outside of the breakwall but within the contamination plume (e.g., within 2 km of the harbor) were an order of magnitude lower. Locations 2–5 km from the harbor ranged from below detection limits, of < 1 to 5 CFU/100 mL. E. coli levels corrected for dilution based on specific conductivity measurements were lower than what would be expected for loss due to dilution alone, suggesting a combination of die-off and dilution, were responsible for the rapid disappearance of these organisms outside of the harbor. E. coli and fecal coliforms measured concurrently demonstrated that fecal coliforms could be recovered longer than E. coli in the open waters of the lake. E. coli isolated directly from sewage treatment plant influent were found to have a marked increase in antibiotic resistance traits for ten antibiotics commonly used in the human population compared with isolates from two animal sources of fecal pollution. However, E. coli obtained from sewage impacted water (n = 2,513) and from stormwater impacted water (n = 1,465) collected the previous year when there were no sewage overflows, were found to have no significant difference (p < 0.05) in the frequency of resistance when comparing the two conditions. E. coli survival characteristics and population dynamics are most likely influenced by multiple factors in complex systems such as the watershed/estuarine/lake environments of the Great Lakes.

Many aspects of Lake Superior's nitrogen cycle are poorly described in spite of the fact that the lake's nitrate concentration has risen dramatically this past century. One important, yet under-described parameter is the concentration of ammonium. Here, we present data to resolve spatial and temporal variation along with vertical profiles of ammonium concentration in Lake Superior. Lake-wide average concentrations were low (0.21 μM, n =166) with considerable spatial and temporal variation. During the onset of summer, the western margin of the lake had higher average concentrations than open and eastern parts. Surface layer (<10 m) ammonium concentrations showed an increase from January to October. Relatively higher ammonium concentration in the near bottom waters at a number of sites during August indicated efflux from sediment to be an important process. Subsurface maxima near the thermocline were observed in late August and persisted until September-October suggesting that ammonium might be controlled by food web processes during warm, stratified conditions. The higher potential for ammonium uptake compared to external inputs suggested rapid turnover of ammonium in the lake.

Long- and short-term levels and trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and walleye (Sander vitreus) from the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes are examined using the bootstrap resampling method in light of the Great Lakes Strategy 2002 (GLS-2002) objective of decrease in concentrations by 25% during 2000–2007. This objective has been set as an indicator of progress toward the long-term goal of all Great Lakes fish being safe to eat without restriction. Lake Superior lake trout and walleye PCB concentrations were almost unchanged between 1990–2006, and the bootstrap analysis suggests that the probability of achieving the GLS-2002 objective is negligible (< 2%). The PCB levels in Lake Huron lake trout and walleye are decreasing; the declines between 2000–2007 are estimated to be 25–35% and 5–30%, respectively. In contrast, Lake Erie walleye concentrations will likely increase by 25–50% between 2000–2007. For Lake Ontario lake trout, achieving the 25% reduction target seems highly probable with a likely decrease of 45–55%; for Lake Ontario walleye, the probability of achieving such a reduction is only 8% with an expected change of −13 to 15%. Although the targeted reduction may not be achieved for walleye from Lakes Superior, Huron, and Ontario, their best projected 2007 PCB levels are below the unlimited fish consumption guideline of 105 ng/g wet weight used by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. In contrast, although there are high probabilities of achieving the goal for lake trout from Lakes Huron and Ontario, their best projected 2007 PCB levels (160 and 370 ng/g ww, respectively) will continue to result in consumption restrictions. Lake Superior lake trout concentrations may remain unchanged at the current elevated level of 160 ng/g ww. For Lake Erie fish, the projected 2007 concentrations and the increasing trends are both worrisome. Additional measurements beyond 2007 are necessary to confirm these estimates because of the observed periodic oscillations in the concentrations.

Analysis of tissue composition in fish often requires dry samples. Time needed to dry fish decreases as temperature is increased, but additional volatile material may be lost. Effects of 10°C temperature increases on percentage dry mass (%DM) were tested against 60°C controls for groups of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus, and alewife Alosa pseudoharengus. Lake trout %DMs were lower at greater temperatures, but not significantly different from 60°C controls. Rainbow smelt and slimy sculpin %DMs were lower at greater temperatures and differences were significant when test temperatures reached 90°C. Significant differences were not found in tests using alewives because variability in %DM was high between fish. To avoid inter-fish variability, 30 alewives were each dried successively at 60, 70, 80, and then 90°C and for all fish %DM declined at each higher temperature. In general, %DMs were lower at greater temperatures and after reaching a stable dry weight, fish did not lose additional mass if temperature remained constant. Results indicate that caution should be used when comparing dry mass related indices from fish dried at different temperatures because %DM was negatively related to temperature. The differences in %DM observed with rising temperature could account for substantial portions of the variability in reported energy values for the species tested. Differences in %DM means for the 60 vs. 80°C and 60 vs. 90°C tests for rainbow smelt and alewife could represent of from 8 to 38% of observed annual energy cycles for Lakes Ontario and Michigan.

Zebra mussels, Dreissena polymorpha, invaded Green Bay, Lake Michigan in the early 1990s. In 1986, prior to zebra mussel invasion, the Green Bay Metropolitan Sewerage District initiated a long-term water quality monitoring program involving 12 stations in three distinct zones along a trophic gradient in lower Green Bay. We analyzed this data set pre and post invasion using various regression models to determine the impacts of the zebra mussel on water clarity, nutrient concentrations, and the relationship between chlorophyll and phosphorus in this system. Following zebra mussel invasion, Secchi depths did not change in all three zones. Chlorophyll a concentrations decreased post zebra mussels in all zones. These differences were attributed to the filter feeding abilities of zebra mussels. Lower Green Bay exhibits a strong trophic gradient and zebra mussel impacts on the chlorophyll-phosphorus relationship differed between the three zones. We saw no changes in the chlorophyll-phosphorus relationship in zone 1, zone 2 appeared to be a transition zone with slight changes in the chlorophyll-phosphorus relationship, and in zone 3 there was evidence of an altered chlorophyll-phosphorus relationship post zebra mussels. These results indicate that the impact of zebra mussels on water quality parameters and on chlorophyll-phosphorus dynamics may differ depending on initial trophic status and on zebra mussel densities.

Over the last century geological studies of the ancestral Great Lakes have confirmed that the large surface load of the Laurentide ice sheet deformed the region causing tilting of ancient lake shorelines. Models of this glacial isostatic adjustment mechanism have promoted understanding of this process but have only included ice sheet loads as the source of earth deformation in the region. We describe a method, utilizing a model of glacial isostatic adjustment combined with GIS, that recreates the paleohydrology of the Great Lakes. Predictions include the extent of late glacial, postglacial, and Holocene lakes and their associated outlets and bathymetries. This predicted history of the Great Lakes is similar to that obtained from a century of detailed field studies but our method uses only the present digital elevation model, a prescribed ice sheet chronology, and an assumed earth viscoelastic rheology. Ancient lake bathymetry predictions provide an estimate of water loads associated with each lake. The effect of these lake loads upon vertical deformation of the Great Lakes region is shown to be small, less than 15 m, but not insignificant when compared to approximately 150 m of deformation forced by ice and ocean loads. Maximum lake-induced deformation is centered upon Lake Superior where water depths were greatest. Where topography is low relief, prediction of shoreline locations should include the lake loading effect as well as the ice and ocean loads.

The status of invasive dreissenid mussels (Dreissena polymorpha and D. bugensis) and native amphipods (Diporeia spp.) in Lake Ontario was assessed in 2003 and compared with historical data. D. polymorpha (zebra mussels) were rarely observed in 2003, having been displaced by D. bugensis (quagga mussels). D. bugensis expanded its depth range from 38 m depth in 1995 to 174 m in 2003 and this dreissenid reached densities averaging 8,000/m² at all sites < 90 m. During the same time period, Diporeia populations almost completely disappeared from 0–90 m depth, continuing a declining trend from 1994–1997 reported in previous studies. The average density of Diporeia in the 30–90 m depth interval decreased from 1,380/m² to 63/m² between 1997 and 2003. Prior to 2003, areas deeper than 90 m represented a refuge for Diporeia, but even these deep populations decreased, with densities declining from 2,181/m² in 1999 to 545/m² in 2003. Two common hypotheses for the decline of Diporeia in the Great Lakes are food limitation and a toxin/pathogen associated with dreissenid pseudofeces. The Diporeia decline in deep waters preceded the expansion of D. bugensis to these depths, and suggests that shallow dreissenid populations remotely influence profundal habitats. This pattern of decline is consistent with mechanisms that act from some distance including nearshore dreissenid grazing and downslope transport of pseudofeces.

The Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) is an invasive organism of concern, with established non-native populations in Europe and California, USA. The species is thought to pose a risk to other North American waterways, including the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway. Since 1965, there have been sixteen confirmed adult E. sinensis caught in the North American Great Lakes or adjoining waterways. Analysis of their mitochondrial DNA sequence variation for part of the cytochrome c oxi-dase subunit I gene discerned three haplotypes among seven individuals (caught between 1973 and 2005), identical to common haplotypes in Europe. Analysis of mitochondrial haplotype frequencies and shipping patterns suggests that E. sinensis has been introduced to the Great Lakes from Europe, although we are unable to preclude native Asian populations as putative sources. The species is catadromous, migrating between salt and fresh water to complete its life cycle. This trait makes it unlikely that E. sinensis will establish a breeding population in the Great Lakes proper, which are separated from saltwater by a considerable distance and significant instream barriers such as waterfalls and navigation locks. However, the recent discovery of two confirmed mitten crabs in the St. Lawrence River, which could be more readily colonized, underscores the risk posed by the repeated introduction of this species into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway.

The sediments of Lake St. Clair were surveyed in 2001 for a range of compound classes including metals (such as total mercury and lead), polychlorinated biphenyls, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, organochlorine pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and short- and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins, in order to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of contamination. Concentrations of contaminants were generally low compared to the lower Great Lakes (Erie and Ontario), and were typically below the Canadian Sediment Quality Probable Effect Level (PEL) guidelines. The only exceptions were for mercury and DDE, where concentrations exceeded their respective PEL at one of the thirty-four sites sampled. With the exception of mercury, it was difficult to interpret spatial trends in contaminant concentrations due to these low levels, although relatively elevated concentrations of several contaminants were found in L'Anse Creuse Bay and at the outflow of the Thames River. In the case of mercury, historically-contaminated sediments in the St. Clair River associated with chloralkali production appeared to contribute to loadings to Lake St. Clair. There have been substantial reductions in sediment contamination in Lake St. Clair over the past three decades, as determined through sediment core profiles as well as through comparison of current data to those from historical surveys conducted in the early 1970s. These results indicate that management actions to reduce contaminant loadings to Lake St. Clair have been generally successful.