Variability in Lake Erie water levels results in variations of the fluid forces applied to the lake bed by freesurface gravity wind-waves. An increase in the bed stress may re-suspend sediment deposited years earlier. This study identifies areas of possible non-cohesive sediment mobilization in response to the forcing conditions and water levels present in Lake Erie. Observations from NOAA buoy 45005 were used to identify wave events generated by a variety of atmospheric forcing conditions. For each event, numerical predictions of significant wave height, wave period, and water level from the Great Lakes Forecasting System (GLFS) were used to characterize the wave event variability over the lake. The Shields parameter was estimated at each 2 km × 2 km grid cell with the local wave forcing as predicted by GLFS assuming an estimate of the wave-induced friction factor. In the Cleveland harbor region of the central basin, the Shields parameter was also estimated by assuming uniform wave conditions as observed by NOAA buoy 45005. The “contour of incipient motion” for both variable and uniform wave events was defined as the offshore contour where the Shields parameter exceeds the critical limit for motion. Comparisons with a radiometrically corrected image from Landsat-7 showed that the spatially varying wave events from GLFS were in qualitative agreement with the satellite observations. A sensitivity analysis of wave height, wave period, and grain size showed the contour of incipient motion to be the most sensitive to wave period. Calculations performed for record high and low water levels showed that the incipient motion of non-cohesive sediments in the relatively flat central basin to be the most sensitive to the historic hydrologic variability present in Lake Erie.

Urmia Lake, located in a closed basin in north-west Iran, is the largest lake (5000–6000 km²) in the Middle East. It is very saline with total dissolved salts reaching 200 g/l compared with a normal seawater salinity of about 35 g/l. The construction of a causeway, which was initiated in 1979 but then abandoned until the early 2000s, is near completion and will provide road access between the western and eastern provinces. The causeway has an opening 1.25 km long and divides Urmia Lake into a northern and southern basin and restricts water exchange. The flow and salinity regimes are affected by the presence of this new causeway, and there are concerns over the well being of the Artemia population. This study investigates the effects of the construction of the causeway on flow and salinity regimes, considers remedial actions, and examines the effects of climatic variability on salinity and flow. Flow and salinity regimes were numerically simulated by using a commercially available two and three-dimensional (2D and 3D) MIKE model. The validity of the numerical model was assessed through sensitivity analysis of the model and comparing the simulated results against field measurements; the 3D model provided the higher correlation between simulated and actual data. Wind input was the main climatic and hydrologic factor influencing flow regime while river discharge, evaporation and rainfall were the key parameters affecting salinity distribution in the lake models. The 3D model was subsequently used to predict lake conditions in typical dry, wet and normal climates, to examine the environmental impacts from the new causeway, and to evaluate possible improvements that some remedial measures may provide.

Snowfall data are subject to quality issues that affect their usefulness for detection of climate trends. A new analysis of lake-effect snowfall trends utilizes a restricted set of stations identified as suitable for trends analysis based on a careful quality assessment of long-term observation stations in the lake-effect snowbelts of the Laurentian Great Lakes. An upward trend in snowfall was found in two (Superior and Michigan) of the four snowbelt areas. The trends for Lakes Erie and Ontario depended on the period of analysis. Although these results are qualitatively similar to outcomes of other recent studies, the magnitude of the upward trend is about half as large as trends in previous findings. The upward trend in snowfall was accompanied by an upward trend in liquid water equivalent for Superior and Michigan, while no trend was observed for Erie and Ontario. Air temperature has also trended upward for Superior and Michigan, suggesting that warmer surface waters and less ice cover are contributing to the upward snowfall trends by enhancing lake heat and moisture fluxes during cold air outbreaks. However, a more comprehensive study is needed to definitely determine cause and effect. Overall, this study finds that trends in lake-effect snowfall are not as large as was believed based on prior research.

While Great Lakes' seasonal water-level variations have been previously researched and well documented, few studies thus far addressed longer-term, decadal cycles contained in the 143-yr lake-level instrumental record. Paleo-reconstructions based on Lake Michigan's coastal features, however, hinted to an approximate 30-yr quasi-periodic lake-level variability. In the present study, spectral analysis of 1865–2007 Lakes Michigan/Huron historic levels revealed 8 and 12-yr period oscillations; these time scales match those of large-scale climatic signals previously found in the North Atlantic. While the existing paleodata are inadequate to the task of asserting significance of the 30-yr signal, it is suggested here that this cycle is due to intermodulation of the two near-decadal signals. Furthermore, water budget analysis argues that the North Atlantic decadal climate modes translate to the lake levels primarily through precipitation and its associated runoff.

“Degradation of benthos” is one of the most common beneficial use impairments identified in Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs). Management of AOCs towards recovery from impairment can benefit from a consolidation of quantitative methods for describing benthic conditions, determining impairment and its probable cause, and detecting recovery that are linked to targets for restoring beneficial use. Benthic conditions are effectively characterized by multiple descriptors, such as physicochemical conditions of sediment, toxicity of sediment, benthic macroinvertebrate community structure, bioaccumulation of contaminants in benthic invertebrates, and substrate stability. Degradation is quantifiable in terms of the degree to which conditions in AOCs differ from reference conditions and exceed environmental quality criteria or other empirically derived benchmarks that are associated with adverse effects. Inferring causality of adverse effects by association with putative stressors is important for the development of management actions to promote restoration. Recovery of benthic conditions after elimination of exposure to the stressor (s) of concern can be identified as the reversal of degradation or, due to effects of interacting environmental factors, a restabilization at a state different from predisturbance conditions. It is recommended that delisting criteria, which define targets for restoration of the beneficial use, be based on the benthic descriptors and conditions used to identify degradation and recovery, with the recognition that the remedial action plan process allows the criteria to be modified to accommodate impacts from other nonmanaged stressors and additional nonecological considerations.

Population fecundity can vary through time, sometimes owing to changes in adult condition. Consideration of these fecundity changes can improve understanding of recruitment variation. Herein, we estimated fecundity of Lake Michigan bloater Coregonus hoyi during December 2005 and February 2006. Bloater recruitment has been highly variable from 1962 to present, and consistently poor since 1992. We compared our fecundity vs. weight regression to a previously published regression that used fish sampled in October 1969. We wanted to develop a new regression for two reasons. First, it should be more accurate because it uses fish collected closer to spawning, thus minimizing the potential for atresia (egg reabsorption) which could bias fecundity high. Second, we hypothesized that fecundity would be lower in 2006 because adult condition was 41% lower in 2006 compared to 1969, likely owing to the decline of Diporeia spp, a primary prey for bloater. Although the slope of the fecundity versus weight regression was similar between the years, fecundity was 24% lower in 2006 than in 1969 for bloater weighing between 70 and 240 g. Whether this was the result of the difference in sampling time prior to spawning or of differences in condition is unknown. We also found no relationship between maternal size and mature oocyte size. Incorporating our updated fecundity regression into a stock/recruit model failed to improve the model fit, indicating that the low bloater recruitment that has been observed since the early 1990s is not solely the result of reduced fecundity.

The purpose of this paper is to show how a high-resolution numerical circulation model of Lake Erie can be used to gain insight into the spatial and temporal variability of phosphorus (and by inference, other components of the lower food web) in the lake. The computer model simulates the detailed spatial and temporal distribution of total phosphorus in Lake Erie during 1994 based on tributary and atmospheric loading, hydrodynamic transport, and basin-dependent net apparent settling. Phosphorus loads to the lake in 1994 were relatively low, about 30% lower than the average loads for the past 30 years. Results of the model simulations are presented in terms of maps of 1) annually averaged phosphorus concentration, 2) temporal variability of phosphorus concentration, and 3) relative contribution of annual phosphorus load from specific tributaries. Model results illustrate that significant nearshore to offshore gradients occur in the vicinity of tributary mouths and their along-shore plumes. For instance, the annually averaged phosphorus concentration can vary by a factor of 10 from one end of the lake to the other. Phosphorus levels at some points in the lake can change by a factor of 10 in a matter of hours. Variance in phosphorus levels is up to 100 times higher near major tributary mouths than it is in offshore waters. The model is also used to estimate the spatial distribution of phosphorus variability and to produce maps of the relative contribution of individual tributaries to the annual average concentration at each point in the lake.

The restoration of Hamilton Harbour, from an environmental standpoint, is a current concern for the agencies involved with remediation efforts in the harbour. Estimates of circulation and mixing are needed to assess the fate and transport of water quality constituents in the harbour. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling system (ELCOM) is used to study the circulation and thermal structure in the harbour. The model results were compared with profiles of temperature at several moorings and currents and water levels in the harbour. The model showed considerable skill in reproducing the thermal structure, surface currents and water levels. Mean summer circulation in the harbour showed two counter-rotating gyres occupying the harbour. The model produced harbour-lake exchange characteristics are in agreement with previous studies. Simulations using passive tracers qualitatively agreed with chemical tracer studies conducted near a sewage treatment plant outfall. The accuracy of these simulations suggests that the model is capable of describing flow and transport of material required for detailed water quality simulations.

Lake Michigan was invaded by zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) in the late 1980s and then followed by quagga mussels (D. bugensis) around 1997. Through 2000, both species (herein Dreissena) were largely restricted to depths less than 50 m. Herein, we provide results of an annual lake-wide bottom trawl survey in Lake Michigan that reveal the relative biomass and depth distribution of Dreissena between 1999 and 2007 (although biomass estimates from a bottom trawl are biased low). Lake-wide mean biomass density (g/m²) and mean depth of collection revealed no trend between 1999 and 2003 (mean = 0.7 g/m² and 37 m, respectively). Between 2004 and 2007, however, mean lake-wide biomass density increased from 0.8 g/m² to 7.0 g/m², because of increased density at depths between 30 and 110 m, and mean depth of collection increased from 42 to 77 m. This pattern was confirmed by a generalized additive model. Coincident with the Dreissena expansion that occurred beginning in 2004, fish biomass density (generally planktivores) declined 71% between 2003 and 2007. Current understanding of fish population dynamics, however, indicates that Dreissena expansion is not the primary explanation for the decline of fish, and we provide a species-specific account for more likely underlying factors. Nonetheless, future sampling and research may reveal a better understanding of the potential negative interactions between Dreissena and fish in Lake Michigan and elsewhere.

A “weight of evidence” approach was used to assess trophic status and phytoplankton community characteristics as a step towards delisting beneficial use impairments in the Buffalo River Area of Concern (AOC). Using a combination of historical data and results of a sampling program conducted in 2006, trophic status was evaluated by considering threshold levels of total phosphorus and chlorophyll a, total phytoplankton abundance, reference-reach comparisons of total phosphorus and nitrate nitrite, and an ecoregion (percentile) analysis. Microcystin toxin levels were used as an indicator of the presence of undesirable algae. Phytoplankton community characteristics were assessed through consideration of species richness, Shannon-Weaver Index of Diversity, presence of indicator species, centric:pennate diatom ratio, the Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), and the Pollution Tolerance Index (PTI). The weight of evidence suggests that the Buffalo River AOC does not have a eutrophication problem, but nutrient levels are sufficiently high to recommend further implementation of watershed Best Management Practices and continued water quality monitoring. Microcystin was present in all samples but at a level below the World Health Organization guidelines; based on this indicator we conclude that the AOC does not have a problem with undesirable algae. The phytoplankton community exhibits some anthropogenic impact as reflected by the TDI, PTI, and presence of certain indicator species, but these impacts do not indicate extreme stress. Based on the weight of evidence the Buffalo River Remedial Advisory Committee recently concluded that the AOC was not impaired in terms of eutrophication, presence of undesirable algae, and degradation of phytoplankton.

The lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) is one of the native Lake Ontario fishes that declined severely over the past century. Recent evidence of larval lake whitefish production in a historic spawning area (Chaumont Bay) might signal a recovery of this species in New York waters. We surveyed coastal and open water areas to evaluate densities and estimate total abundance of larval lake whitefish in Chaumont Bay. Other historic spawning areas and embayments with appropriate spawning and nursery habitat were also surveyed, but only a few larvae were found outside of Chaumont Bay. Lake whitefish larvae were found in every embayment sampled within Chaumont Bay, with larval densities of nearly 600/1000 m² in some samples. Greatest abundances occurred in the northern sectors and near the mouth of the bay. Open water densities were generally less than half that of nearshore sites. The total bay-wide estimate for 2005 was approximately 644,000 lake whitefish larvae, but dropped to 230,000–400,000 in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean larval growth rates (0.36 mm/day) did not differ by year, but were consistently higher in early May than in late April. Lake whitefish production in Chaumont Bay is encouraging for this species, but the cause and persistence of the decline after 2005 can be determined only by continued monitoring. Other possible bottlenecks of survival may exist at juvenile and adult stages and could significantly affect recruitment dynamics. This species is sensitive to normal climatic fluctuations and increased variability associated with global climatic change could make winter nursery conditions unfavorable for this species.

Naturally occurring chemical markers in otoliths offer a potential but untested means to identify source environment for fishes in the upper Illinois River system and Lake Michigan, including individuals that may breach or circumvent electrical barriers in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal or be transferred via bait buckets between these formerly isolated drainages. The objectives of this study were to determine whether water and fish otolith stable isotopic and elemental compositions differ among Lake Michigan, the upper Illinois River, and three tributaries of the upper Illinois River (Fox, Des Plaines and DuPage Rivers) and to determine whether otolith isotopic and elemental signatures could be used to identify the water body from which individual fish were collected. Water and fish otolith samples were obtained from each site during 2007 and analyzed for δ¹⁸O and a suite of trace element concentrations; otoliths also were analyzed for δ¹³C. Otolith δ¹³C values for Lake Michigan fish were distinct from individuals collected in the Illinois River and tributaries. Fish collected in the Fox and Des Plaines Rivers could be distinguished from one another and from fish captured in the Illinois and DuPage Rivers using otolith Sr:Ca and Ba:Ca ratios. Otolith isotopic and elemental compositions may enable identification of source environment for fishes that move or are transferred between the Illinois River drainage and Lake Michigan; however, temporal variation in otolith chemical signatures should be assessed.

Great Lakes populations of yellow perch have fluctuated throughout past decades to the present due to unstable recruitment patterns and exploitation. Our study analyzes genetic diversity and structure across the native range in order to interpret phylogeographic history and contemporary patterns. We compare complete mitochondrial DNA control region sequence) from 568 spawning individcing all 5 Great Lakes and outlying watersheds from the upper Mississippi River, Lake Winnipeg, Lake Champlain, and Atlantic and Gulf coastal relict populations. Theadces additionally are compared with fine-scale patterns from 334 individuals at 16 spawning across Lake Erie's 4 fishery management units. We identify 21 mtDNA haplotypes, including a widespread type that totals 87% of individuals across the Great Lakes. Overall genetic diversity is relatively low in comparison with other Great Lakes fishes, congruent with prior allozyme and microsatellite studies. The largest genetic demarcation separates 2 primary population groups: one in the Great Lakes, Lake Winnipeg, and upper Mississippi River watersheds and the other along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, together with Lake Champlain; which diverged ∼ 365,000 years ago. In addition, the watersheds house genetically separable groups, whose patterns reflect broad-scale isolation by geographic distance. A few spawning groups show some fine-scale differentiation within Lake Erie, which do not reflect fishery management units and need further study with higherresolution markers.

Invasive species have had major impacts on the Great Lakes. This is especially true of exotic dreissenid mussels which are associated with decreased abundance of native macroinvertebrates and changes in food availability for fish. Beginning in 2001, we added a benthic macroinvertebrate survey to the USGS-Great Lakes Science Center's annual fall prey fish assessment of Lake Huron to monitor abundance of macrobenthos. Mean abundance of Diporeia, the most abundant benthic taxon in Lake Huron reported by previous investigators, declined greatly between 2001 and 2007. Diporeia was virtually absent at 27-m sites by 2001, decreased and was lost completely from 46-m depths by 2006, but remained present at reduced densities at 73-m sites. Dreissenids in our samples were almost entirely quagga mussels Dreissena bugensis. Zebra mussels Dreissena polymorpha were virtually absent from our samples, suggesting that they were confined to nearshore areas shallower than we sampled. Loss of Diporeia at individual sites was associated with arrival of quagga mussels, even when mussel densities were low. Quagga mussel density peaked during 2002, then decreased thereafter. During the study quagga mussels became established at most 46-m sites, but remained rare at 73-m sites. Length frequency distributions suggest that initial widespread recruitment may have occurred during 2001–2002. Like other Great Lakes, Lake Huron quagga mussels were associated with decreased abundance of native taxa, but negative effects occurred even though dreissenid densities were much lower. Dreissenid effects may extend well into deep oligotrophic habitats of Lake Huron.

The Lake Michigan contaminant transport and fate model LM2-Toxic was developed to gain a better understanding of PCB cycling dynamics and to predict environmental exposure concentrations of 54 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners in Lake Michigan water and sediment from 1994 to 2055 as a function of a variety of forcing functions including constant conditions, continued recovery forecasts, and load reduction scenarios. LM2-Toxic couples the organic carbon sorbent and chemical dynamics conceptualized for a natural water system. Based on 1994–1995 model results, a mass budget analysis showed that air-water exchange was the most important mass transfer process. Volatilization was the largest PCB loss and gas absorption was the largest PCB input to Lake Michigan. Model-predicted environmental exposure concentrations suggest that the water quality criterion for protection of wildlife (0.074 ng/L) and human health (0.026 ng/L) will be attained in approximately 2018 and 2045, respectively, based on a slow recovery scenario. For this scenario, atmospheric components, including vapor phase concentration and wet and dry particulars loadings, were assumed to decline with a 20 year half-life, and tributary loadings were assumed to decline with a 13 year half-life.

The Lake St. Clair delta (∼100 km²) provides an important refuge for native freshwater mussels (Unionidae) wherein 22 of the ∼35 historical species co-occur with invasive dreissenids. A total of 1875 live unionids representing 22 species were found during snorkeling surveys of 32 shallow (∼1 m) sites throughout the delta. Richness and density of unionids and zebra mussel infestation rates varied among sites from 3 to 13 unionid species, 0.02 to 0.12 unionids/m², and <1 to 35 zebra mussels/unionid, respectively. Zebra mussel infestation of unionids in the delta appears to be mitigated by dominant offshore currents, which limit densities of zebra mussel veligers in nearshore compared to offshore waters (13,600 vs. 28,000/m³, respectively). Glycogen concentrations in the tissues of a common and widespread species in the delta (Lampsilis siliquoidea) suggest that zebra mussels may be adversely affecting physiological condition of unionids in a portion of the Lake St. Clair delta. Physiological condition and community structure of unionids within the delta may also be influenced by differences in food quantity and quality resulting from the uneven distribution of water flowing from the St. Clair River. The delta likely supports the largest living unionid community in the lower Great Lakes and includes several species that have been listed as Endangered or Threatened in Canada and/or the state of Michigan, making it an important refuge for the conservation of native unionids.

Efforts to restore self-sustaining lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes have had widespread success in Lake Superior; but in other Great Lakes, populations of lake trout are maintained by stocking. Recruitment bottlenecks may be present at a number of stages of the reproduction process. To study eggs and fry, it is necessary to identify spawning locations, which is difficult in deep water. Acoustic sampling can be used to rapidly locate aggregations of fish (like spawning lake trout), describe their distribution, and estimate their abundance. To assess these capabilities for application to lake trout, we conducted an acoustic survey covering 22 km² at Sheboygan Reef, a deep reef (<40 m summit) in southern Lake Michigan during fall 2005. Data collected with remotely operated vehicles (ROV) confirmed that fish were large lake trout, that lake trout were 1–2 m above bottom, and that spawning took place over specific habitat. Lake trout density exhibited a high degree of spatial structure (autocorrelation) up to a range of ∼ 190 m, and highest lake trout and egg densities occurred over rough substrates (rubble and cobble) at the shallowest depths sampled (36–42 m). Mean lake trout density in the area surveyed (∼2190 ha) was 5.8 fish/ha and the area surveyed contained an estimated 9500–16,000 large lake trout. Spatial aggregation in lake trout densities, similarity of depths and substrates at which high lake trout and egg densities occurred, and relatively low uncertainty in the lake trout density estimate indicate that acoustic sampling can be a useful complement to other sampling tools used in lake trout restoration research.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were analyzed in 88 forage fish samples collected from Lake Michigan in 1995 and in 2002/2003. Lipid-normalized total PBDE concentrations ranged from 149 to 1094 ng/g. Total PBDEs in alewife and deepwater sculpin did not change significantly from 1995 to 2002/2003, while the levels in bloater chub and the slimy sculpin decreased. BDE-47 was the most abundant congener in the fish. All of the forage fish were depleted in BDE-99 relative to what would be expected based on the congener composition of the commercial formulation in use. The deepwater sculpins were particularly lacking in BDE-99. Changes in the food web brought about by the dramatic decline of Diporeia abundance (due to the invasion of zebra and quagga mussels) may have affected the levels of PBDEs in some of the forage fish.

This research documents a 150-year record pertaining to the duration of closed navigation for Bayfield harbor. Data were gathered recording the opening and closing of navigation in Bayfield, Wisconsin from 1857–2007. Data were primarily collected from the Madeline Island Ferry Line and microfilmed copies of the Bayfield County Press. Analysis of the data indicates that the duration of ice cover on Lake Superior at Bayfield, Wisconsin has decreased over the past 150 years at the rate of approximately 3 days/decade or 45 days over the course of the study. During the past 150 years, the date that the last boat is able to navigate in the Bayfield harbor indicates the onset of ice cover. This date has occurred an average of 1.6 days later every decade. Conversely, the date that the first boat is able to navigate in Bayfield harbor marking the break up of ice cover has come to an average of 1.7 days earlier every decade. Although this represents the overall trend for the past century and a half, the most dramatic changes have occurred since 1975. During this period the ice season has begun an average of 11.7 days later and ended 3.0 days earlier every decade. Bayfield's ice season was compared to the lake's annual maximum ice concentration (AMIC) as compiled in a study by [Assel, R.A., Cronk, K., and Norton, D. 2003. Recent trends in Laurentian Great Lakes ice cover, Climatic Change 57: 185–204, 2003.] The fraction of the potential closed navigation season that the Bayfield harbor is ice covered decreased at a rate of 0.77% a year while the AMIC decreased at a rate of 0.39% / year during the period from 1964–2001. In general, the decline in the ice cover at Bayfield mirrors the pattern shown by the AMIC, suggesting that Bayfield's ice season could be used as a nonspecific indicator of overall lake trends.

Despite extensive knowledge of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in European brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations, little is known about their nucleotide sequence variation in North America. The objective of this study was to quantify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the ND-1 mtDNA locus of 62 brown trout from hatcheries in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Michigan streams and Lake Michigan. We identified 25 SNPs that characterized nine distinct mtDNA haplotypes in the Wild Rose, Gilchrist and Seeforellen brown trout strains. Although most SNPs were represented by synonymous nucleotide substitutions, three individuals of the Seeforellen strain had non-synonymous nucleotide changes. MtDNA haplotypes identified in North American brown trout in this study showed nucleotide similarity at the ND-1 locus to brown trout from northern Europe.