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8 May 2023 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on local weather, arboviral diseases, and dynamics of managed and unmanaged populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Puerto Rico
Roberto Barrera, Veronica Acevedo, Manuel Amador, Melissa Marzan, Laura E. Adams, Gabriela Paz-Bailey
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Abstract

We investigated the effects of interannual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on local weather, Aedes aegypti populations, and combined cases of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses in 2 communities with mass mosquito trapping and 2 communities without mosquito control in southern Puerto Rico (2013–2019). Gravid adult Ae. aegypti populations were monitored weekly using Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps (AGO traps). Managing Ae. aegypti populations was done using 3 AGO traps per home in most homes. There were drought conditions in 2014–2015 concurrent with the emergence of a strong El Niño (2014–2016), wetter conditions during La Niña (2016–2018), a major hurricane (2017), and a weaker El Niño (2018–2019). The main factor explaining differences in Ae. aegypti abundance across sites was mass trapping. Populations of Ae. aegypti reached maximum seasonal values during the wetter and warmer months of the year when arbovirus epidemics occurred. El Niño was significantly associated with severe droughts that did not impact the populations of Ae. aegypti. Arbovirus cases at the municipality level were positively correlated with lagged values (5–12 mo.) of the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI), droughts, and abundance of Ae. aegypti. The onset of strong El Niño conditions in Puerto Rico may be useful as an early warning signal for arboviral epidemics in areas where the abundance of Ae. aegypti exceeds the mosquito density threshold value.

Roberto Barrera, Veronica Acevedo, Manuel Amador, Melissa Marzan, Laura E. Adams, and Gabriela Paz-Bailey "El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on local weather, arboviral diseases, and dynamics of managed and unmanaged populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Puerto Rico," Journal of Medical Entomology 60(4), 796-807, (8 May 2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjad053
Received: 3 January 2023; Accepted: 20 April 2023; Published: 8 May 2023
JOURNAL ARTICLE
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KEYWORDS
Aedes aegypti
dengue
El Niño
ENSO
Zika
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