To predict patterns of forest regeneration following wildfires, we must determine the factors that affect tree seedling establishment. We tested the relative influence of abiotic, biotic, and landscape factors on the probability of tree seedling presence in Waterton Lakes National Park, Alberta, Canada. We recorded the presence of seedlings in 98 plots that were first surveyed 25 years before the 2017 Kenow Wildfire, 53 of which burned in the fire. We included plots that did not burn to test the effect of the wildfire on seedling occurrence, and whether the importance of other factors varied in burned versus unburned plots. Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon) seedlings occurred in about 25% of burned plots, but only 2% of unburned plots. Seedlings of poplars (Populus spp. Linnaeus), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hooker) Nuttall), and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Engelmann) occurred in 8% or less of the burned plots and 20% to 48% of unburned plots. After accounting for burn status, pine seedlings were more likely to occur in plots with higher herbaceous plant cover, while spruce seedling occurrence declined with elevation. After burn status, past presence of the tree species in a plot was the strongest predictor of seedling occurrence. However, seedlings of spruce and fir are still mostly absent from burned areas. Long-term monitoring of these plots will reveal whether these species can successfully recolonize burned areas, and how long it will take.