Yellowstone National Park, USA, is a popular tourist destination with sympatric populations of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and American black bears (U. americanus). It receives >4 million recreational visits annually, and bear–human interactions are common. Many visitors are concerned about the risks of recreating in bear habitats, and wildlife managers are interested in knowing the risk of bear attack to inform safety messaging, reduce the frequency of bear attacks, and/or to address concerns regarding reintroduction of grizzly bears. To address those objectives, we analyzed 45 years (1979–2023) of recreational use statistics and bear attack data to estimate the risk of injury by bears while visitors are engaged in different recreational activities, including front-country recreation, overnight camping in roadside campgrounds and backcountry campsites, and backcountry hiking and horseback riding on overnight trips. We used generalized linear models to estimate the effects of these different types of use and of bear species on the rate of bear-inflicted human injury in the park. We found overall rates of injury were low (∼1/3.6 million visits caused by grizzlies and ∼1/23.2 million visits caused by black bears) and have decreased concurrently with increasing park visitation. Risk of injury varied by activity type and bear species involved. Users of vehicle-accessible campgrounds had a ∼98% lower rate of bear-inflicted injury than those in backcountry campsites. There was a marginally significant (P H 0.088) effect of species on the rate of injury to overnight users (stock riders and backpackers combined) with the rate of injury caused by grizzly bears being ∼5× that of black bears. When considering all use types combined, grizzly bears caused a ∼6.5× higher rate of injury than black bears did. Backcountry hikers are most at risk of injury from grizzly bears. Educational efforts should focus on activity types most at risk and emphasize science-based strategies for reducing surprise encounters.
Yellowstone National Park (YNP), USA, has sympatric populations of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and American black bears (hereafter, “black bear”; U. americanus). Bear densities in the region are estimated at approximately 2.1 grizzly bears (calculated from Gould et al. 2024; 1,030 grizzly bears within the 49,931-km2 Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Demographic Monitoring Area) and 20.0 black bears (Bowersock et al. 2023) per 100 km2. Yellowstone National Park is also a popular tourist destination for outdoor recreation and currently receives >4 million visits annually (U.S. Department of Interior, National Park Service 2022). Bear–human interactions are common as a result of the spatial overlap between bears and recreationists (Gunther et al. 2024).
When planning trips to the park, many visitors wonder and worry about the risks associated with recreating in bear habitats. Park managers are also interested in knowing the risk of bear attack for different recreational activities to inform development and prioritization of bear safety messages. Knowing the probability of attack for different recreational activities will also provide managers with quantitative information on significance of risk when making decisions on implementing management actions designed to reduce the frequency of bear attacks. The risks of bear attack calculated here can also be compared with other hazards in the park to aid in prioritization of limited safety messaging resources. Additionally, human safety is often a primary concern raised by the public when state and federal agencies propose reintroduction as part of conservation plans for areas where grizzly bears have been extirpated (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2000, Dax 2015, Nadeau 2020). Bear attacks may turn public attitudes against bears, reversing years of conservation efforts and putting future bear populations at risk (Herrero 1970, 1976). For example, Moment (1968, 1969, 1970) proposed elimination of grizzly bears from U.S. national parks to improve visitor safety. Local citizens' fear of grizzly bears and concerns for human safety and property were the primary factors that stopped the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's attempt to reintroduce grizzlies into the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness of Idaho and Montana, USA, in 2001 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2000, Dax 2015, Nadeau 2020). To address bear safety concerns, we analyzed 45 years (1979–2023) of recreational use statistics and bear attack data to estimate the risk of being injured by bears for visitors engaged in different types of recreational activities in YNP, including front-country recreation, overnight camping in vehicle-accessible roadside campgrounds, overnight camping in backcountry campsites, backcountry hiking while on overnight backpacking trips, and backcountry horseback riding while on overnight stock pack-trips. We evaluated the risk of bear-inflicted human injury by comparing the number of people injured or killed by bears (hereafter referred to as “injuries”) while engaged in different types of recreational activities to the number of park visitors that participated in those activities. The probabilities of bear attack presented here are likely comparable to those of other areas of North America occupied by grizzly and black bears, and therefore useful to other public land and wildlife managers.
Study area
Yellowstone National Park was established in 1872 and encompasses 8,991 km2 in the states of Wyoming (96%), Montana (3%), and Idaho (1%), USA. Most (∼99%) of YNP is relatively pristine, undeveloped land; 92% (8,272 km2) of the park has been recommended for wilderness designation and by National Park Service (NPS) policy is managed so as not to preclude that designation in the future (U.S. Department of Interior, National Park Service 1974, 2006). Only ∼1% of the park's landscape has been significantly altered through construction of roads and developments. During the study period (1979–2023), visitation to the park gradually increased from 1.9 million visits in 1979, to an average of 4.1 million visits/year after 2014. The majority (>96%) of visitation occurs from May through October, the same period when most grizzly bears and black bears of all sex and age classes are out of winter dens and active on the landscape (Haroldson et al. 2002).
Most park visitors remain within front-country (developments, roadsides, front-country trails) areas. Front-country recreational facilities in YNP include 499 km of paved roads and 251 km of gravel roads that are typically open to the public from mid-April through early November. The park's road system provides access to 5 major and 2 minor developments containing hotels, lodges, and rental cabins that provide overnight accommodations for park visitors. The major developments have 2,170 overnight lodging units (U.S. Department of Interior, National Park Service 1991) that can accommodate ∼8,300 guests/night (U.S. Department of Interior, National Park Service 1974). Annual overnight stays in hotels, lodges, and rental cabins average 576,897 overnight stays/year. Additional front-country recreational facilities accessible by roads include 52 picnic areas, 11 visitor centers, 2 boat launches, 1 full-service marina, and 24 km of front-country trails at geyser basins and other scenic features adjacent to roads and developed areas (U.S. Department of Interior, National Park Service 2022). Hundreds to thousands of visitors walk the front-country trails daily from mid-May through mid-October (B. McDonald, YNP Outdoor Recreation Planner, personal communication). Bear-resistant garbage cans and dumpsters are provided at all front-country facilities.
Yellowstone National Park has 11 vehicle-accessible campgrounds and 1 recreational vehicle (RV) park that contain 2,265 campsites that accommodated an average of 648,015 overnight stays/year during the study. All campgrounds except Grant Village have bear-resistant food storage lockers in every campsite. Food storage lockers make compliance with YNP's food storage regulations easy and convenient, reducing the number of food storage violations and accessibility of anthropogenic foods to bears. People staying in the Grant Village Campground and Fishing Bridge RV Park are required to store their food inside of their vehicles or hard-sided RVs, so that their human foods are not accessible to bears. Bear-related food storage patrols are conducted by park rangers and campground hosts periodically throughout the day and early evening in all campgrounds.
There are 1,609 km of maintained backcountry trails in YNP that are used by overnight backpackers and stock (horses [Equus caballus], mules [E. asinus], llamas [Lama glama]) pack-trips; 92 roadside trailheads provide access to the trail system. An additional 21 backcountry trailheads along the park's boundary allow access to YNP trails from adjacent U.S. National Forest Service lands. Two national trails—the Continental Divide Scenic Trail and the Nez Perce National Historic Trail—pass through YNP. Six designated Wilderness Areas administered by the U.S. Forest Service—the Lee Metcalf (1,048 km2), Absaroka-Beartooth (3,819 km2), North Absaroka (1,418 km2), Washaki (2,850 km2), Teton (2,368 km2), and Winegar Hole (43 km2) Wilderness Areas—adjoin the YNP boundary. Additionally, the Jedediah Smith Wilderness (500 km2) is located a few miles south of the southern boundary of YNP.
The backcountry trail system provides access to 301 designated backcountry campsites that have a maximum capacity of 3,112 people and 1,665 stock animals/night. Each backcountry campsite provides bear-resistant food storage devices (food hanging poles or steel food storage lockers). Dispersed camping (camping in nondesignated backcountry sites) is allowed in 12 zones of the park but is a minor (<2%) portion of total backcountry overnight stays (I. Kowski, YNP Central Backcountry Office, personnel communication). When dispersed camping in nondesignated sites, backcountry recreationists are required to rig their own food hanging device or carry a hard-sided, bear-resistant food storage container approved by the Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee (ax2239ad.aw; igbconline.org). Approximately 70% of YNP's recreationists that camp in the backcountry travel by foot, 17% use stock (horses, mules, and llamas), and 13% travel by nonmotorized or motorized boat (canoe, kayak, sailboat, motorboat). During the study period, the backcountry campsites received an average of 42,960 overnight stays/year. Although total park recreational visits have increased significantly over time, the annual number of overnight stays in the backcountry have remained relatively stable. The number of overnight stays in the backcountry is limited by both the number and capacity of the designated backcountry campsites in the park.
The backcountry trail system is also used by day-use recreationists for hiking, horseback riding, sightseeing, fishing, bird watching, and photography. Yellowstone National Park does not have capacity limits on backcountry day-use recreational activities and does not keep records of such activities. From our experience conducting grizzly bear field research and management activities in YNP's backcountry over the past 40+ years, we believe that trends in backcountry day-use have followed trends in total park visitation, and therefore have increased significantly since 1979. Our experience also indicates that most backcountry day-use recreational activities occur ≤5 km from trailheads and road-based access points. Therefore, areas >5 km from roads are still very wild and pristine.
Topography in YNP is characterized by high-elevation plateaus and the mountain ranges that encircle them. Elevations range from 1,590 to 3,360 m; timberline occurs at 3,000 m (Despain 1990). Most of the park is between 2,100 and 2,750 m in the subalpine zone (Despain 1990). Approximately 80% of YNP is covered by forest and 20% by sagebrush–grasslands and grass–forb meadows. Vegetation cover varies with elevation (Despain 1990). Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) are typical at lower elevations (1,900–2,200 m). Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) stands predominate on midslopes (2,200–2,600 m). Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) stands dominate on high-elevation forested slopes (2,600–2,900 m). Nonforested, sagebrush (Artemesia tridentata and A. kana) -dominated complexes are prevalent on mid-elevation plateaus and low-elevation valley bottoms. Mixed grass–sedge (Carex spp.) or grass–forb meadows are common along stream courses occurring at lower to mid-elevations.
Eight species of ungulates inhabit YNP: bison (Bison bison), moose (Alces alces), elk (Cervus elaphus), bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), white-tailed deer (O. virginianus), mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Yellowstone National Park's carnivore guild includes grizzly bear, black bear, cougar (Puma concolor), gray wolf (Canis lupus), coyote (C. latrans), bobcat (Lynx rufus), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Sporadic verified observations of lynx (L. canadensis) and their sign (tracks, hair) have also been documented (Murphy et al. 2006).
Methods
We separated visitor activities into 5 broad categories for which we had recreational use statistics, including (1) front-country recreation, which included walking, sightseeing, photography, picnicking, jogging, and other activities that occurred within developed areas, along roads and roadside pull-outs, and along front-country trails; (2) overnight camping in designated vehicle-accessible campgrounds; (3) overnight camping in designated backcountry campsites or backcountry dispersed camping zones; (4) hiking in backcountry areas while on overnight backpacking trips; and (5) traveling in the backcountry with horses, mules, or llamas while on overnight stock pack-trips.
Front-country recreation statistics
We obtained data on total number of recreational visits (front-country park visits through entrance stations) to YNP for the years 1992–2023 from the National Park Service Visitor Use Statistics web page ( https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/SSRSReports/YELL/Yellowstone). We obtained recreation statistics for the years 1979–1991 from the YNP Visitor Services Office. To calculate the risk of bear attack for front-country recreationists, we divided the total number of park visits recorded at entrance stations during 1979–2023, by the number of bear-inflicted human injuries that occurred within or ≤250 m from developed areas, roadsides, and front-country trails. Incidents that occurred inside roadside campgrounds were analyzed separately.
Vehicle-accessible campground use statistics
Camping overnight in vehicle-accessible campgrounds may potentially incur greater risk of bear attack than staying in hotels, lodges, or cabins; therefore, we analyzed the risk of bear-inflicted human injury in campgrounds separately from other front-country areas. We obtained data on total number of overnight stays in vehicle-accessible campgrounds for the years 1992–2023 from the National Park Service Visitor Use Statistics web page. We obtained campground statistics for the years 1979–1991 from the YNP Visitor Services Office. To calculate the risk of bear attack while camping in vehicle-accessible campgrounds, we divided the number of overnight stays in campgrounds by the number of people injured by bears in campgrounds. We calculated the total number of overnight stays in campgrounds by adding together the number of nightly tent and RV campers in NPS-managed campgrounds, concessioner-operated campgrounds, and NPS- and concessioner-operated campground group campsites.
Backcountry campsite use statistics
We obtained records of the number of people obtaining backcountry permits to camp overnight in backcountry campsites and dispersed camping zones, and the total number of overnight stays in the backcountry, from the YNP Central Backcountry Office. Records of backcountry overnight stays for the years prior to 1992 did not distinguish the mode of travel used by backcountry campers. Therefore, our estimate of the risk of attack while in backcountry campsites combines all the different types of overnight backcountry campers (e.g., those traveling by foot, stock animal [horse, mule, llama], nonmotorized boat [canoe, kayak, sailboat], and motorized boat).
To calculate the risk of attack while in backcountry campsites, we divided the total number of backcountry overnight stays by the number of people injured by bears while at their campsites. Overnight stays are calculated by multiplying the number of people in each group obtaining a backcountry permit, by the number of nights spent camping in backcountry campsites. For example, a group of 3 people spending 2 nights in the backcountry is recorded as 6 overnight stays. The risk of attack was likely different between different modes of travel while people were traveling to their campsites. However, once backcountry travelers arrived at their campsites, the risk of bear attack was likely similar between all types of recreationists regardless of mode of travel.
Overnight backpacker recreation days use statistics
The YNP Central Backcountry Office has maintained records that distinguish the number of people traveling by foot while on overnight backcountry camping trips from 1992 to the present. For backpackers, we calculated the risk of attack while hiking, independently from the risk of attack while they were in their campsites. To calculate the number of recreation days backpackers spent hiking in the backcountry, we added the number of people in each party to the number of overnight stays for each party, to give us the number of backpacker recreation days. This method accounted for the last day of backpacking trips when backpackers were hiking out to the trailhead and would not be spending the night in the backcountry. For example, 3 backpackers spending 2 nights in the backcountry would be spending 3 days on the trail or a total of 9 recreation days (no. of people × no. of nights, + no. of people).
Overnight stock user backcountry recreation days
Records that distinguish the number of people traveling with stock animals and camping in the backcountry have been kept since 1992. For overnight stock riders, we calculated the risk of attack while riding to campsites independently from the risk of attack while they were in their campsites. To calculate the number of overnight stock rider recreation days, we added the number of people in each stock party to the number of overnight stays for each party. This method accounted for the last day of pack-trips when stock riders were riding out to the trailhead but would not be spending the night in the backcountry. For example, 8 stock riders spending 2 nights in the backcountry would be spending 3 days on the trail or a total of 24 stock rider recreation days (no. of people × no. of nights + no. of people).
Bear-inflicted human injury statistics
We collected data on bear-inflicted human injuries and fatalities during interviews with injured recreationists and incident field investigations conducted by YNP law enforcement and bear management office staff. These records included information on the activity of visitors and the location where the injury occurred. We compared the number of people injured or killed by bears when engaged in different recreational activities with the total number of park visitors that engaged in those activities.
Censored data
We censored the data from 7 bear-inflicted injuries to YNP and other agency or contracted employees that occurred while conducting job-related work activities. These included (1) a biological technician that was injured by a grizzly that woke up early from immobilization drugs during a research capture operation in 1981; (2) a park ranger that was bitten while moving an injured black bear off of the road in 1983; the bear had temporarily lost consciousness after being struck by a vehicle but regained consciousness and bit a ranger that was carrying it off of the road; (3) a biological technician that was injured by a grizzly bear while approaching its very high frequency (VHF) telemetry signal during a study of recreation impacts on bear movements in 1984; (4) a wolf project technician that was bitten by a black bear after approaching a wolf-killed elk carcass in 2007; (5) a wildland firefighter that was injured after surprising a grizzly while conducting a back-burn in the potential wildlife escape path from a large forest fire in high-density grizzly bear habitat in 2008; (6) a power company employee that was injured after surprising a grizzly while riding a utility task vehicle on a power-line corridor in 2008; and (7) a U.S. Geological Survey employee that was bitten by a grizzly that woke up unexpectedly from immobilization drugs during a research capture operation in 2019. These bear-inflicted human injuries were omitted from our analysis because YNP does not keep records of the number of staff (NPS, concessions, contractor) field days where employees are potentially exposed to risk of bear attack. Additionally, in some of those incidents the job duties (moving injured bears, trapping and handling bears, approaching ungulate carcasses, simulating hiker disturbance of bears during a research project, starting back-burns in high-density grizzly bear habitat) put agency or partner staff at greater risk of bear attack than the visiting public are generally exposed to.
Data analysis and statistical methods
We aggregated injury data by year and stratified them by like units of visitation (i.e., recreation days, overnight stays, or entrance station visit counts). The effects of bear species and recreation activity type, if applicable, on injury rates for each type of visitation were initially assessed using generalized linear mixed-effects models executed with the glmmTMB package (Brooks et al. 2017) in Program R version 4.3.1 (R Core Team 2023). We specified models with a Poisson error distribution and included the log of total visits, recreation days, or overnight stays for each year as an offset. We initially included year as a random effect because activity type and species were nested within each year. In most cases, the random effect term resulted in overparameterization and model convergence failures. In these instances, we dropped the random effect term and ran models again as generalized linear models (glms) with a Poisson error structure. The exception to this was the combined use model that pooled all visitor recreation types to assess the effects of species on injury rates, which converged and showed improved performance with the random effect term included versus glms. We assessed variable importance using backwards step selection. We used likelihood ratio tests (LRT) to compare models with and without main effect terms and interactions, where applicable, to determine statistical significance of effects. Models produced estimates as log rate ratios. We calculated rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals post hoc by exponentiating model coefficients and confidence intervals. We checked models for overdispersion and zero inflation using the Program R package “performance” (Lüdecke et al. 2021) and assessed fit using standard model checks.
Definitions of terms
Unique terms used in this manuscript are defined as follows:
Backcountry: All lands in YNP proposed for wilderness designation and all undeveloped lands >250 m from developments, paved or gravel roads, roadside pull-outs, vehicle-accessible campgrounds, and front-country trails. Areas classified as backcountry include backcountry trails, campsites, and off-trail areas.
Backcountry campsite: Yellowstone National Park has 301 designated backcountry campsites. The core camp of each campsite contains a food storage device (food hanging pole or metal bear-resistant food storage locker). The core camp is the area intended to be used by visitors to store, cook, and consume their food so that all food odors are contained in one area. In campsites where ample fire-wood is available and wood fires are allowed, a rock fire-ring is also provided within the core camp. Visitors are required to set up their tents ≥91 m from the core camp.
Backcountry dispersed camping zone: Backcountry areas where camping at undesignated sites is allowed. Dispersed camping zones in YNP are located outside of areas with high densities of bears and Bear Management Area recreational restrictions (U.S. Department of Interior, National Park Service 1982).
Backcountry overnight stay: The number of person-nights spent camping in designated backcountry campsites or dispersed camping zones.
Backcountry travel with stock: Riding or leading horses, mules, or llamas while traveling in proposed wilderness or undeveloped lands.
Bear-inflicted human injury: Any incident where grizzly or black bears killed or injured recreationists, including minor cuts, scratches, and contusions.
Development: Front-country areas containing hotels, lodges, rental cabins, general stores, gift shops, restaurants, marinas, offices, maintenance facilities, utility infrastructure, and staff housing. For this analysis, bear-inflicted human injuries that occurred within roadside campgrounds are analyzed separately and are not included with developed areas.
Front-country: All areas ≤250 m from the impacted footprints of developments, paved or gravel roads, roadside pull-outs, and front-country trails. For this analysis, roadside campgrounds were analyzed separately from other front-country areas.
Front-country trail: Short trails located adjacent to roads and developments that contain interpretive signs providing visitors with information about geysers or other natural features.
Overnight camping in backcountry areas: Sleeping in a tent, hammock, or on the ground inside designated backcountry campsites or dispersed camping zones.
Overnight camping in designated roadside campgrounds: Camping or sleeping in a tent, camping trailer, RV camper, hammock, or on the ground within the boundaries of designated vehicle-accessible campgrounds.
Overnight stay: The number of person-nights people spend camping in front-country campgrounds, backcountry campsites, or backcountry dispersed camping zones.
Recreation day: The number of days backpackers or people on overnight horse pack-trips engaged in backcountry travel or other recreational activities including hiking, horseback riding, fishing, bird watching, photography, etc. while traveling outside of the core camp.
Stock rider: A person riding a horse or mule while on a day or overnight trip in the backcountry of Yellowstone National Park.
Stock use: Backcountry travel with horses, mules, or llamas for the purpose of backcountry camping or day-use recreation.
Vehicle-accessible campground: Designated campgrounds charging a fee that are located adjacent to roads and are accessible to cars, trucks, recreational vehicles, motorcycles, bicycles, and hitch-hikers.
All other human–bear interaction terms we used are consistent with definitions by Hopkins et al. (2010).
Results
During 1979–2023, 139,393,574 recreational visits were made to YNP, during which 48 people were injured by bears. Grizzly bears injured 39 people, black bears 6, and in 3 injury incidents the species of bear was unknown. Most (92%, 36 of 39) grizzly bear–inflicted human injuries in YNP occurred in the backcountry. Twenty-nine of the 39 (74%) grizzly bear–inflicted injuries involved surprise encounters and appeared to be defensive reactions or protection of food or offspring. Female grizzlies with offspring were known to be involved in 24 of the 29 (83%) surprise encounter incidents. Five of the grizzly bear–inflicted injuries were fatal.
Black bears injured 6 people during our 45-year study period. The injuries were all minor; none of them fatal. Four of the 6 black bear–inflicted injuries occurred in campsites and 2 along trails. Of the campsite injuries, 3 occurred in designated backcountry campsites and 1 in an illegal campsite in the forest adjacent to a road. Three of the people injured in campsites were sleeping when bitten and the other was sitting on the ground resting when bitten on the head and arm by a black bear that entered the campsite undetected. Of the injuries outside of campsites, one backpacker hiking between campsites was bitten while lying on the ground taking a post-lunch midday nap next to a backcountry trail. Additionally, one day hiker traveling off-trail was bitten on the foot while climbing a tree to escape a charging adult black bear after a surprise encounter. That incident, which occurred near the YNP–Gallatin National Forest boundary, involved a bear described by the injured hikers' companion as “having a rather interrupted gait and appeared to be injured or shot.”
For both species combined (including injuries where bear species was not identified), there was 1 visitor injured for every 2,904,033 recreational visits (Table 1). Overall, injury rates caused by bears in YNP have steadily declined from 1979 to 2023. This occurred concurrently with park visitation increasing by approximately 2.5× over the same period (Fig. 1). However, injuries to park visitors still occur and risk of injury varies by species involved and type of recreational activity. Results of the user-stratified models are presented below.
Table 1.
Risk (rate and probability) of being injured by grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), American black bears (U. americanus), and undetermined species of bear (grizzly bear or black bear) while engaged in different recreational activities in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho, USA, 1979–2023.

Fig. 1.
Overall trends in bear-inflicted injury rates and total park visitation in Yellowstone National Park, USA, from 1979 to 2023. Top panel shows injury rates per visit for each year for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos; gray triangles and trend line) and black bears (U. americanus; black squares and trend line). Y-axis values are in standard scientific notation (i.e., 1.0e-06 = 1.0 3 1026 or 0.000001). Bottom panel shows total park visitation numbers for each year with trend line.

Injuries in front-country areas
Total park-visits ranged from 1,892,908 to 4,860,537 with a mean of 3,097,635 visits/year from 1979 to 2023. There were 2 injuries caused by grizzly bears and 1 injury caused by black bears in front-country areas during this period, yielding an injury rate of 1/ 69,696,787 visits for grizzly bears and 1/139,393,574 visits for black bears (Table 1). The model-estimated mean rate ratio of 2.00 (95% CI [0.18, 22.81]) indicated a trend toward grizzly bears causing injuries at a rate roughly twice that of black bears in front-country areas (Table 2). However, this effect was not statistically significant (LRT, χ21 H 0.34, P H 0.56; Fig. 2A).
Table 2.
Model summaries and estimated rate ratios derived from generalized linear (A–C) and mixed-effects (D) models examining the risk of being injured by grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) or American black bears (U. americanus) while engaged in different recreational activities in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho, USA, 1979–2023. Black bears serve as the reference group contained in the model intercept values. Rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated post hoc by exponentiating model coefficient and confidence intervals. Significant effects (P < 0.05) of explanatory variables evaluated using Likelihood Ratio Tests are denoted with an *.

Fig. 2.
Model-estimated effects of bear species (black [Ursus americanus] or grizzly [U. arctos]) on the rate of bear-inflicted injury to park visitors in Yellowstone National Park, USA, from 1979 to 2023. (A) In developed areas, roadsides, or front-country (FC) trails; (B) in vehicle campgrounds (CG) and backcountry (BC) campsites, with an additional effect of campsite type; (C) for overnight backpackers and horseback riders; (D) for all visitor types combined with additional inclusion of day hikers and day stock users. Black bears serve as the reference group contained in the model intercept values. Points are model-estimated mean log rate ratio and error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Where intervals include zero, effect was considered unimportant and variable significance was formally assessed using likelihood ratio tests for verifiation.

Injuries in vehicle-accessible campgrounds versus backcountry campsites
Annual overnight stays in vehicle-accessible campgrounds from 1979 to 2023 ranged from 448,286 to 791,382 with a mean of 648,015. Overnight stays in backcountry campsites for the same period ranged from 25,188 to 55,060 with a mean of 41,231/year. Grizzly bears caused 1 injury in vehicle-accessible campgrounds and 1 in backcountry campsites, while black bears caused no injuries in campgrounds and 3 injuries in backcountry campsites. This yields an injury rate of 1/29,160,667 overnight stays for grizzly bears and 0/29,160,667 overnight stays for black bears in vehicle-accessible campgrounds, and 1/1,855,377 overnight stays for grizzly bears and 1/618,459 overnight stays for black bears in remote backcountry campsites (Table 1). Model-estimated mean rate ratios indicated that there was a highly significant effect of campground type, with a ∼98% lower rate of bear-inflicted injury (RR H 0.016; 95% CI [0.002, 0.144]; Table 2) in vehicle-accessible campgrounds than in backcountry campsites (LRT, χ21 H 17.65, P < 0.0001; Fig. 2B). Grizzly bears caused fewer injuries in backcountry campsites, with a model-estimated mean ∼43% lower rate of injuries (RR H 0.667, 95% CI [0.11, 4.03]) than that of black bears (Table 2); however, this effect was not statistically significant (LRT, χ21 H 0.201, P H 0.65; Fig. 2B). Accordingly, there was no significant species–location interaction (LRT, χ21 H 2.231, P H 0.14), resulting in only campground type being retained in the best fit model.
Injuries to overnight backcountry users outside of backcountry campsites
Annual backcountry recreation days for overnight backpackers ranged from 36,316 to 50,437 with a mean of 42,960. Annual overnight horseback riding recreation days ranged from 2,779 to 6,714 with a mean of 4,663. Sufficient data to calculate recreation days for these users were only available from 1992 to 2023. There were 5 injuries to backpackers caused by grizzly bears and 1 injury caused by black bears yielding a rate of 1 injury/275,144 recreations days for grizzlies and 1/1,375,721 recreations days for black bears (Table 1). No injuries to horseback riders were recorded for either species. No bear-inflicted human injuries have been recorded to overnight stock users in the 32-year data set, so models were unable to accurately estimate an effect size for overnight horseback riders compared with backpackers (log rate ratio H –1.98, 95% CI [–49,493, 49,454]), with standard errors approaching infinity. Therefore, backcountry overnight horse and backpacker users were modeled using a Poisson generalized linear model examining only the effect of species on the rate of injury in backcountry areas outside of campsites among overnight users. The model-estimated mean rate ratio for grizzly bears versus black bears was 5.00 (95% CI [0.57, 43.70]; Table 2). This suggests that in backcountry areas outside of campsites, the injury rate attributable to grizzly bears is approximately 5 times the rate of injury caused by black bears. This effect was marginally significant (LRT, χ21 H 2.911, P H 0.088; Fig. 2C).
Combined injury rate for all park users and locations
Total combined annual park visits ranged from 1,892,908 to 4,860,537 with a mean of 3,097,635 visits. This combined data set includes injuries to day hikers and stock users that were not included in the other data sets analyzed. From 1979 to 2023, there were a total of 39 injuries caused by grizzly bears and 6 caused by black bears yielding a rate of 1 injury/3,574,194 recreational visits for grizzly bears and 1 injury/23,232,262 visits for black bear (Table 1). There was a highly significant effect of species (LRT, χ21 H 27.043, P < 0.0001; Fig. 2D) with model-estimated average injury rates attributable to grizzly bears being approximately 6.5 times higher than those of black bears (RR H 6.50, 95% CI [2.72, 15.54]) across all years and visitor use types combined (Table 2).
Discussion
Bear-inflicted human injury data from 1979 to 2023 likely provide a reasonably accurate evaluation of the current risk of bear attack in YNP. Prior to 1979, bear-inflicted human injuries were common and most injuries involved bears that were conditioned to human foods and garbage (Cole 1971, Schullery 1992, Wondrak-Biel 2006). In 1970, YNP implemented a new bear management program (Leopold et al. 1969). The foundation of the program was to reduce human–bear conflicts by preventing bears from becoming conditioned to human foods, garbage, and other anthropogenic attractants (Cole 1971). The years 1970–1978 were a transition period of installing bear-proof infrastructure (e.g., bear-proof garbage cans, dumpsters, and food storage devices), improving bear safety messaging, incrementally increasing enforcement of food and garbage storage regulations, and removing (killing or sending to zoos) human food-conditioned bears that persisted in attempting to obtain anthropogenic foods (Meagher and Phillips 1983). By 1979, sources of anthropogenic attractants had been made bear-proof, most human food-conditioned bears had been removed from the park population (killed or sent to zoos), and newly installed bear-proof infrastructure was mostly successful at preventing additional bears from becoming conditioned to human foods (Meagher and Phillips 1983); human–bear conflicts and human-caused bear mortalities declined significantly thereafter (Gunther 1994, Garshelis et al. 2017, Gunther 2024).
Grizzly bear
Our calculated grizzly bear injury rate for all types of recreational activities combined in YNP is within the range of rates reported for other Canadian and U.S. national parks. The rate of 1 grizzly bear–inflicted human injury/3.6 million recreational visits to YNP is higher than the rates reported for Kootenay (1 injury/12.6 million visits), Yoho (1 injury/6.7 million visits), and Banff (1 injury/4.1 million visits) national parks, but lower than the rates for Mount Revelstoke and Glacier (Canada; 1 injury/2.6 million visits), Waterton (1 injury/2.0 million visits), Jasper (1 injury/1.2 million visits), Glacier (USA; 1 injury/0.9 million visits), Denali (1 injury/0.3 million visits), and Kluane (1 injury/0.3 million visits) national parks (Herrero 1976, Herrero and Fleck 1990, Herrero and Higgins 1999).
Although the park-wide grizzly bear–inflicted human injury rate makes it clear that grizzlies are not very dangerous to the average YNP visitor, not all visitors had equal risk of exposure to grizzly bear attack. Visitors that remained within front-country areas had a much lower risk of being injured by grizzly bears (1 injury/ 69.7 million visits) than did other user groups. Camping overnight in roadside campgrounds more than doubled the risk of injury compared with recreating in other front-country areas, although risk remained at a very low level (1 injury/29.2 million overnight stays). Backcountry camping entailed much greater, but still very low, risk (1 injury/1.9 million overnight stays); that risk was >7× greater during hiking between campsites (1 injury/ 275,144 recreation days) than while at a campsite.
During our study period, no people on backcountry overnight horse pack-trips were injured by grizzly bears while riding or in their campsites. However, 2 day-riders were injured, and neither were on their horses when attacked. One was walking, leading his mule when he surprised a grizzly in its daybed. The other was sitting under a tree eating lunch with his horse hobbled nearby when a grizzly climbed out of an adjacent steep gulley, was surprised by the man's presence, and reacted with defensive aggression injuring him slightly before fleeing. In general, people riding stock are less likely to be involved in surprise encounters and therefore defensive bear attacks (Herrero 1970, 1976). Horses and mules have more acute senses of sight, hearing, and smell than people do and will usually detect a bear's presence before a person does, alerting the rider and reducing the chances of surprise encounters at close distances where bears are more likely to respond with defensive aggression (Herrero 2002). The large size of horses and mules is also more intimidating to bears, making them less likely to make contact during defensive charges after surprise encounters. Additionally, unlike humans, when charged by bears, horses and mules have enough speed and agility to outrun bears, thus providing an added margin of safety if the rider can stay in the saddle.
The grizzly bear injury rate for backpackers while they were hiking in YNP (1 injury/275,144 backpacker recreation days) was lower than the risk reported for hunters in Scandinavia (1 injury/144,000 hunters; Støen et al. 2018) and for hikers in Banff (1 injury/53,220 recreation days), Jasper (1 injury/38,175 recreation days), Mount Revelstoke and Glacier National Parks, Canada (1 injury/ 2,620 backcountry recreation days; Herrero 1976, 2002), but considerably higher than reported for all recreationists combined in the Bob Marshall Wilderness of Montana, USA (1 injury/4.5 million recreation days; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2000). However, the recreation data from the Bob Marshall Wilderness combined campsite, hiking and stock use data; therefore, these data are not directly comparable to the backpacker recreation days we calculated for YNP.
Yellowstone National Park does not collect records of the number of day-use recreationists backcountry hiking in the park, so the risk of attack for that user groups could not be calculated. However, we believe the risk of grizzly bear attack for day-hikers is likely very similar to that incurred by overnight backpackers injured while they were hiking (1 injury/275,144 backcountry recreation days).
Black bear
Five of the 6 black bear–inflicted injuries involved people in prone or supine positions; 4 of the 5 were sleeping when bitten. The bites to people in these positions may have been curious soft nips to test people as potential prey but did not appear to be full predatory attacks. In most documented predatory diurnal attacks on people in North America, black bears were extremely focused on their intended prey and not easily dissuaded (Herrero 2002, Smith 2006). In all 5 black bear incidents with sleeping or resting people during our study, the bears disengaged with the victims after they yelled, sat up, stood up, or the bear was driven off by a companion.
Our calculated rate for all types of recreational activities in YNP combined, 1 black bear–inflicted human injury/23.2 million visits, is similar to the rate of 1 injury/21.0 million visits reported for Yoho National Park (Herrero and Higgins 1999) but considerably lower than the black bear–inflicted injury rates reported for Jasper (1/2.8 million visits), Great Smoky Mountains (1/2.6 million visits), Waterton (1/2.0 million visits), and Yosemite (1/0.6 million visits) national parks (Herrero and Fleck 1990).
Grizzly bear versus black bear comparison
In most areas of YNP, grizzly bears posed greater risk to visitors than did black bears. From 1979 to 2023, grizzly bears inflicted ∼6.5× more injuries than did black bears parkwide, even though black bears occurred at higher densities. However, black bears injured people in backcountry campsites more often than did grizzlies. Overall, grizzly bears are more aggressive toward people than black bears are (Herrero 1978, 2002; Stirling and Derocher 1990). Our data from YNP support that conclusion. The overall risk (for all recreational activities combined) of being injured by a grizzly bear in YNP was 1 injury/3.6 million visits, compared with 1 injury/23.2 million visits inflicted by black bears (Table 1). The greater aggressiveness of grizzly bears was also readily apparent for attacks on backcountry hikers. In backcountry areas, grizzly bears injured 1 backpacker for every 275,144 backpacker recreation days, whereas black bears injured 1 backpacker for every 1.4 million recreation days.
The greater defensive aggressiveness by grizzly bears as compared with black bears in North America may be a result of their evolutionary history (Herrero 1978, Stirling and Derocher 1990). Grizzly bears evolved to select more open, nonforested habitats where lack of trees dictated that females with cubs must directly confront threats and defend their cubs on the ground, thus favoring defensive aggression as an evolutionary trait (Herrero 1978, Stirling and Derocher 1990). In contrast, black bears evolved inhabiting forested environments where cubs can escape predators by climbing trees (Herrero 1978, Stirling and Derocher 1990). Therefore, female black bears do not need to engage threats directly but can send their cubs up trees to escape harm, flee themselves, then come back for their cubs after the threat has gone (Herrero 1978, Stirling and Derocher 1990).
Trends in bear-inflicted human injuries
Injury rates caused by grizzly bears and black bears in YNP steadily declined during our study. The decline occurred concurrently with park visitation increasing by approximately 2.5× over the same period (Fig. 1). We attribute the decline in bear attacks to YNP's efforts to prevent bears from obtaining human foods, garbage, and other anthropogenic attractants (Leopold et al. 1969, Cole 1971, Meagher and Phillips 1983), combined with educational efforts to teach park visitors how to react to surprise encounters, interactions, and confrontations with bears when they occur (Table 3). Additionally, YNP has designated 16 Bear Management Areas (BMA) encompassing 21% of the highest quality bear habitats within the park. Recreational activity is limited within BMAs through a variety of seasonal trail, campsite, and area closures, requirements of no off-trail travel, and prohibitions of backcountry travel during nocturnal and crepuscular time periods, implemented during seasons when bear activity is concentrated on specific high-quality foods in predictable locations. The BMAs have likely reduced human–bear encounters, interactions, and confrontations within the park (Coleman et al. 2013, Loggers et al. 2023).
Table 3.
Contact point and media used to provide bear safety information to visitors to Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA.

Relevancy of Yellowstone National Park injury rates to other areas
The probabilities of bear attack for different recreational activities in YNP are likely comparable to the probabilities of attack on many other public lands occupied by grizzly bears in North America. However, because big game hunting is not allowed inside YNP, the risks of bear attack in the park are not comparable to areas where hunting occurs, at least not during the hunting season. Most grizzly bear attacks in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) outside of YNP involve ungulate-hunting-related activities (Gunther et al. 2004). In Scandinavia, hunters' per capita risk of bear attack was ∼12× higher than that of nonhunters (Støen et al. 2018). Although ungulate hunters are often vigilant, to be successful they generally do not hunt in large groups, stay on designated trails, or make noise to forewarn bears of their presence like many other types of recreationists do. Staying on maintained trails, making noise in areas with limited visibility, and traveling in large groups reduce the risk of surprise encounters and defensive reactions by bears (Herrero 2002, Herrero and Higgins 2003, Smith and Herrero 2018, Gunther and Haroldson 2020), but would likely significantly reduce ungulate hunter success rates.
Additionally, coastal salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) –feeding brown bears generally occur at higher population densities than do interior populations, which can result in bear-to-bear habituation and much shorter overt reaction distances (ORD), making coastal bears less likely to react with defensive aggression during surprise encounters with people (Smith et al. 2005). In contrast, interior brown bear populations such as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem population, generally occur at lower densities, leading to longer ORDs and making interior bears more likely to respond to surprise encounters with defensive aggression (Smith et al. 2005). Higher levels of food stress among interior bear populations, which generally live in less productive habitats and do not have access to abundant coastal salmon spawning runs, may also contribute to higher rates of defensive aggression by interior brown bears (Aumiller and Matt 1994; Herrero et al. 2005, 2011; Smith et al. 2005). Therefore, the probabilities of grizzly bear attack we calculated for YNP are not likely comparable to occupied grizzly bear habitats where ungulate hunting occurs nor to coastal lands with abundant salmon populations.
Bear safety messages
From an early age most people are taught behaviors that decrease the risk of injury in an urban setting; however, much less effort is expended to teach people how to safely enjoy outdoor activities in a wilderness environment (Penteriani et al. 2016). Different people learn most efficiently in different ways, so YNP uses a wide variety of media to promote bear safety. Media used include written signs, posters, brochures, and web page material; video links; and social media posts (Table 3). Yellowstone National Park attempts to educate visitors both before they arrive and while they are present in the park (Table 3). Although YNP implements an extensive bear-safety messaging program, many visitors do not follow the park's safety recommendations (Gunther 1990, Gunther et al. 2023b). For example, based on bear encounter–party size research (Herrero 1970; Chester 1976, 1980), YNP recommends recreationists hiking into the backcountry travel in groups of ≥3, yet most visitors hike alone or with just one partner (Oosterhous 2000, Gracia-Longares 2005, Coleman et al. 2013, Gunther et al. 2023b). Additionally, based on bear spray research (Hunt 1984, Rogers 1984, Herrero and Higgins 1998, Smith et al. 2008), YNP also recommends all backcountry hikers carry capsaicin-based bear deterrent spray, but only 57% of overnight backpackers and 18% of day hikers comply with that recommendation (Gunther et al. 2023b). Bear safety messaging is especially challenging because, even though the consequences of bear attack can be quite severe (severe injuries or even death; Herrero 1970, Gunther 2022), the risk of attack for most visitors is extremely small, 1 grizzly bear–inflicted human injury/ 3.6 million park visits and 1 black bear–inflicted injury/ 23.2 million visits. To add perspective to those risk calculations, the injury rate (fatal and nonfatal combined) for passenger vehicle crashes in the USA from 1999 to 2003, was 1 injury/123,092 person trips (calculated from Beck et al. 2007). It is difficult to convince visitors to adhere to bear safety recommendations to reduce the risks of an already rare event.
In YNP, improvements in information and education efforts aimed at recreational safety in bear country are paramount in the face of significant increases in visitation, concurrent with grizzly bear and black bear recovery in YNP and the GYE following the high mortality incurred after the closure of garbage dumps throughout the GYE in the 1960s and 1970s (Craighead et al. 1974, Haroldson and Gunther 2013, Meagher and Phillips 1983, Schullery 1992). As visitation continues to increase, innovative messaging campaigns may be needed to improve visitor compliance with bear safety recommendations. The effectiveness of any new educational campaigns designed to improve visitor safety in bear country should be evaluated. Reducing the frequency of bear-inflicted human injuries is important not only for visitor safety, but also for reducing management removals in threatened bear populations and for maintaining societal support for bear conservation (Røskaft et al. 2007).
Management considerations
Educational efforts aimed at decreasing the risk of bear-inflicted human injuries should focus on the types of recreational activities most at risk (Herrero and Higgins 1999). Our results indicate that in YNP, backcountry hikers are most at risk of being injured by grizzly bears whereas backcountry campers are most at risk of being injured by black bears. Under current management scenarios, bears are not as dangerous to most other recreationists in YNP. Management of bear attack risk should also focus on people's behavior (Herrero and Higgins 1999). There are science-based strategies for reducing the risk of surprise encounters (e.g., hiking in groups ≥3 people, being vigilant when in bear habitat, making noise in areas with poor visibility), for defusing backcountry confrontations with grizzly bears (e.g., backing away from agitated bears to give them space, standing one's ground and using bear spray when charged by bears during surprise encounters, and playing dead once defensive bears make contact), and for deterring potential predatory attacks by black bears (e.g., being aggressive and fighting back when interacting with curious or predatory bears [Herrero and Higgins 1995, Herrero 2002, Smith and Herrero 2018, Gunther et al. 2023a]). State and federal agencies as well as many nongovernment organizations provide an abundance of bear safety information to the public. However, low compliance with those recommendations indicate that current bear safety messages may not be resonating with many recreationists. Innovative strategies may be necessary to inform backcountry hikers and campers about bear safety practices in a meaningful manner that results in actual human behavioral changes. If backcountry recreationists are willing to modify their behavior while in bear habitat, bears and people can coexist with minimal risk of human injury and human-caused bear mortality.
Acknowledgments
Support for this research was provided by Yellowstone Forever and Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We thank J. Carpenter and C. Sholly for encouraging science-based management of grizzly bears and American black bears in YNP. We also acknowledge the long-term commitment of bear management biological technicians M. Biel, R. Danforth, E. Reinertson, and T. Wyman for their dedication and assistance in managing the human–bear interface in YNP. We also thank Ursus Editor A. Derocher, Associate Editor T. Smith, and an anonymous reviewer for their suggestions that improved the manuscript. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.