The Japanese rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica breeds only in limited alpine areas at high elevations (> 2,500 m a.s.l.) in Japan. The estimated population size is about 2,000 birds and their breeding distribution is subdivided into several local areas, in each of which they may be at risk of local extinction. We estimated age-specific demographic parameters of the core population breeding on Mt. Norikura in Gifu and Nagano prefecture in Japan. We also estimated population viability using deterministic and stochastic population models. Age-specific fertility (the number of female offspring that survived to the next breeding season per female) was 0.417 ± 0.086, 0.490 ± 0.080, 0.513 ± 0.153, 0.435 ± 0.078, 0.562 ± 0.139, 0.580 ± 0.122 (mean ± SE) for ages 1-6 , respectively. The annual survival rate was 0.739 ± 0.047, 0.624 ± 0.064, 0.513 ± 0.087, 0.732 ± 0.151, 0.447 ± 0.220, 0.486 ± 0.089. The population growth rate, evaluated by use of a deterministic projection-matrix model, predicted a stable population, λ = 1.105 ± 0.063, 95% CI = 0.985-1.231 and λ = 1.114 ± 0.062, 0.996-1.239, using two different assumptions for the final age of reproduction by ptarmigan. We evaluated the risk of extinction as the proportion of λs that was < 1, and this was ≤ 4.4%. To complement the deterministic model, we developed an individual-based stochastic population model in which each of the individuals produced a variable number of offspring and survived one year with certain probabilities that were drawn from estimated distributions of age-specific clutch size and survival rates. Averaged population growth rate under the stochastic model was λ = 1.1, and the risk of extinction defined as the proportion of trials in which population size ≤ 1 within 30 years was ≤ 8.9%, even when the starting population was small (15 birds). These results suggest that the local population at Mt. Norikura is stable in size and suffers a relatively low risk of extinction. We suggest that this population can serve as a potential source for surrounding small local populations that may be sink populations.

The mortality process is a key component of avian population dynamics, and understanding factors that affect mortality is central to grouse conservation. Populations of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have declined across their range in western North America. We studied cause-specific mortality of radio-marked sage-grouse in Eureka County, Nevada, USA, during two seasons, nesting (2008-2012) and fall (2008-2010), when survival was known to be lower compared to other times of the year. We used known-fate and cumulative incidence function models to estimate weekly survival rates and cumulative risk of cause-specific mortalities, respectively. These methods allowed us to account for temporal variation in sample size and staggered entry of marked individuals into the sample to obtain robust estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality. We monitored 376 individual sage-grouse during the course of our study, and investigated 87 deaths. Predation was the major source of mortality, and accounted for 90% of all mortalities during our study. During the nesting season (1 April - 31 May), the cumulative risk of predation by raptors (0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and mammals (0.08; 95% CI: 0.03-013) was relatively equal. In the fall (15 August - 31 October), the cumulative risk of mammal predation was greater (M_(mam) = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) than either predation by raptors (M_(rap) = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.00-0.10) or hunting harvest (M_(hunt) = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.0-0.06). During both seasons, we observed relatively few additional sources of mortality (e.g. collision) and observed no evidence of disease-related mortality (e.g. West Nile Virus). In general, we found little evidence for intraseasonal temporal variation in survival, suggesting that the nesting and fall seasons represent biologically meaningful time intervals with respect to sage-grouse survival.

We estimated clutch size, hatching success, chick survival before independence from hens and juvenile survival after independence in Japanese rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica during 2006-2012 on Mt. Norikura, Honshu, Japan. The tame behaviour of this subspecies provided us a unique opportunity to observe them at a close range throughout the period from hatching to adulthood. The average clutch size was 5.7 ± 0.1 (± SE). We estimated the average hatching success to be 0.602 ± 0.880, the average nest hatching success to be 0.733 ± 1.071, the average hatchability of successful nests to be 0.907 ± 0.017 and average female survival during June, as an indicator of their survival during laying and the incubation periods, to be 0.905 ± 0.055. We attributed all egg losses to predation by carnivores. Clutch size, nest success, hatchability and female survival during June did not vary among years. Chick survival decreased sharply during the first four weeks of the brooding season. The average annual chick survival until independence was 0.278 ± 0.097, but it varied from 0.096 ± 0.051 to 0.639 ± 0.084. Survival of juveniles after independence was higher than for chicks before independence. Average over-winter survival of juveniles was larger and was 0.902 ± 0.015. We estimated the average reproductive success of Japanese rock ptarmigan from egg-laying to one year old to be 0.586 ± 0.883 birds/breeding female. Weather conditions, especially rainfall, during the first two weeks of the brooding season appeared to negatively affect chick survival.

We studied survival and cause-specific mortality of radio-marked capercaillie Tetrao urogallus females relative to habitat type in northern Sweden during 2000-2004. Our high-mountain area (1,600 km²) consisted of the alpine transition zone from Norway spruce Picea abies-dominated forest, mountain birch Betula pubescens and alpine heath. Our low-mountain areas consisted of two forest areas (300 and 160 km²) dominated by Scots pine Pinus sylvestris and characterised by more intensive forestry than the first-mentioned area. Predation was the most common cause of mortality in both the high-mountain (70%) and low-mountain (90%) areas. We attributed 10% of mortality in both areas to hunting. Collisions with cars and power lines were only documented in the high-mountain area. A Cox-proportional regression model stratified by year suggested that hazard was lower for yearlings and birds using low-mountain areas, but these estimates were associated with large uncertainties. Pooling all individuals showed an average annual survival probability of 0.68 (0.62-0.75; 95% CI), with no tendency for hazard to vary among seasons. Because survival of females was comparable to those reported in other studies and the harvest mortality was low, we suggest that the capercaillie population in the Swedish high-mountain region does not need any changes in the present management strategy.

Conservation and management of habitat is central to the conservation of grouse. Identifying thresholds of biotic and abiotic risks that may reduce habitat quality is therefore a component of habitat management of grouse. We propose that dietary phytochemicals, specifically plant secondary metabolites (PSMs), represent an ecological risk to grouse, which are not often considered in the management of grouse. Most species of grouse consume PSMs, which have negative consequences at some concentration. Moreover, several studies provide evidence that the risks posed by PSMs will likely increase under projected climate change scenarios. We discuss potential risks of PSMs for grouse and propose theoretical models, which can be used to test current and future physiological, behavioural and ecological risks of PSMs. We propose that dose-response thresholds can be used to predict and monitor the synergistic risks of PSMs and climate change for grouse. We further suggest that identifying dose-response thresholds to PSMs is needed in the management of vertebrate herbivores in general.

Knowledge of resource selection patterns can provide important information for species conservation. During spring 2010 and 2011, we investigated habitat selection by territorial rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta helvetica males in a protected area of the western Italian Alps. We located males from 30 randomly selected survey points, and we measured the proportions of cover-type categories found within a 37-ha area surrounding each observed bird using three classification maps of differing information and resolution. We also evaluated physical variables (altitude, slope and solar radiation) associated with the birds using a 75-m digital terrain model. We modelled land cover and physical attributes under these three alternative land-classification maps. The lowest resolution map, based on the Corine land-cover map, did not have high predictive value because only orographic variables described the presence of birds; in our case, we found a negative effect of slope and a positive effect of altitude on presence of ptarmigan. The next higher resolution map, a local forest resource map, showed that slope had a negative effect and rocky grasslands had a positive effect on ptarmigan presence. Finally, using the highest resolution map, a phytosociological map of our Natural Park study area, the best-ranked models were those having only cover-type variables, with alpenrose Rhododendron ferrugineum and blueberry Vaccinium myrtillus scrubland and pioneer vegetation negatively correlated with the presence of rock ptarmigan. We concluded that a staged approach that uses maps of differing detail was successful for obtaining useful information on rock ptarmigan habitat selection, but the most interesting results about rock ptarmigan habitat selection at the scale of breeding territories were obtained only using a very detailed vegetation map. Because such detailed information is difficult to obtain on larger scales, we suggest wildlife managers cooperate to build similar mapping tools that allow analyses similar to ours.

Disturbance caused by human outdoor recreation and tourism activities is increasingly viewed as a threat to wildlife. Particularly in areas where threatened populations of wildlife overlap with highly frequented tourist locations, managers are challenged with reducing impacts of human disturbance on wildlife. For grouse, Tetraonidae, most studies on the effects of human disturbance address individual responses, whereas for conservation, the most relevant question is whether human presence negatively impacts the abundance and viability of populations. I here summarise published studies on the responses of grouse to the presence of humans, review the conceptual foundations of predation-risk theory and the risk-disturbance hypothesis, and propose a framework for research to aid conservation of grouse. Because grouse are found in many environments they are excellent model species for testing the predictions of the risk-disturbance hypothesis.

The consequences of climate change for bird populations have received much attention in recent decades, especially amongst cavity-nesting songbirds, yet little has been written on ducks (Anatidae) despite these being major elements of wetland diversity and important quarry species. This paper reviews the major known consequences of climate change for birds in general, and relates these to the limited information available specifically for ducks. Climate change can influence migration distance and phenology, potentially affecting patterns of mortality, as well as distribution and reproductive success in ducks. Studies addressing effects of climate change are, however, restricted to very few duck species, including mallard Anas platyrhynchos and common eider Somateria mollissima. Shifts in winter duck distributions have been observed, whereas the mismatch hypothesis (mistiming between the periods of peak energy requirements for young and the peak of seasonal food availability) has received limited support with regard to ducks. We propose a range of monitoring initiatives, including population surveys, breeding success monitoring schemes and individual duck marking, which should later be integrated through population modelling and adaptive management to fill these gaps.

Translocation of captive-reared animals is widely used as a tool for endangered species recovery. Frequently, translocated populations have relatively low initial productivity, requiring management intervention. A translocated population of whooping cranes Grus americana in central Wisconsin is such a case. We examined chick mortality for this population and used daily chick survival rates as our response variable to model several parameters including phenology, chick age, energetics and parent age and experience. We also developed and evaluated adoption techniques using sandhill cranes Grus canadensis to mitigate the effects of high chick mortality and increase the probability of fledging. Our results illustrate the challenges that translocated populations can face as they encounter novel breeding conditions. We found that whooping crane daily chick survival was relatively low and most mortality events occurred within the first 20 days. Our results indicated that variables related to age of the parents as well as the pair's previous chick rearing experience were useful for predicting daily chick survival. We found that sandhill crane foster parents readily accepted replacement chicks. We also demonstrated adopted chicks acceptance of foster parents and that the chicks' source (captive-born vs wild-born) did not affect success of the adoption. Chick adoption provides several management options that could be used to bypass the period when chicks experience the greatest mortality. Reducing chick mortality and developing techniques to increase the number of fledged chicks is paramount for whooping crane recovery as well as the recovery of other endangered bird species.

The success of species reintroduction programmes depends on many factors, including habitat quality and predator occurrence at release locations. For the critically endangered eastern barred bandicoot Perameles gunnii in Australia, successful releases have been achieved only in the absence of predation by the introduced red fox Vulpes vulpes. However, few fox-free sites exist, but those that are fox free may have low habitat suitability, potentially leading to reintroduction failure. We studied a reintroduced population of eastern barred bandicoots at Mt Rothwell, a 420-ha fox-free reserve which appeared to have a degraded foraging range and a lack of nesting material due to overgrazing by marsupial herbivores. We quantified habitat use and measured several variables representing movement distances and nest use. Bandicoots foraged in open grassy areas and nested at sites containing high values of litter, lateral cover and concealment cover. Mean (± SE) home ranges (37.2 ha ± 11.8), daily movement distances (494.6 m ± 32.5) and distances between consecutive nests (122.6 m ± 29.0) were large for males. On average, the length of stay at each nest (2.8 days ± 0.4) was longer than previously recorded values for males, and 13.2% of the nests were used by at least two individuals, suggesting that nesting opportunities were limited. Despite behaviour indicating a low resource base, bandicoots appeared to be surviving and reproducing in our study area, indicating a capacity to live in structurally simple habitat in the absence of predators. Our results are consistent with predator exclusion being a critical factor for successful bandicoot reintroduction.

The freshwater habitats of semi-aquatic carnivores in Europe have undergone substantial alterations due to regulation and construction of artificial watercourses. We compared seasonal estimates of otter Lutra lutra food composition with concomitantly collected data on fish availability and otter holt location in a strongly human-modified ecosystem comprising the upper stretches of the Wieprz-Krzna Canal, the longest artificial waterway in Poland, and an associated regulated river. Concrete lining of the canal, extreme water level variation and regular vegetation clearance to enhance water flow substantially limited otter food and shelter resources, yet the canal offered attractive habitats for some fish and hibernating amphibians, while otter resting sites were available at the closely adjacent river. The taxonomic composition of fish in the otter diet, reconstructed based on faecal analysis, was largely reflected in electrofishing catches. Fish communities in our study area were numerically dominated by small-sized species and otters fed on very small fish (median seasonal total lengths: 46-54 mm). Either the smaller fish in the population were taken or prey sizes did not differ from those available. The significant contribution of amphibians and waterbirds to otter diet (seasonally 41-75% in terms of biomass) indicated poor fish supplies for otters in the canal-river system. High trophic diversity, compared to other otter studies in temperate climatic conditions, indicates that otters facing unstable food conditions exhibit great flexibility in their diet, which may facilitate colonisation of anthropogenic, depauperate environments. Otter occurrence provides little opportunity for conflict with human economic interests in ecosystems that are highly managed for purposes other than fish production. Since anthropogenic habitats are typically poor in some resources, such as shelter structures, their suitability for otters can be enhanced by ensuring good connectivity with nearby less-disturbed habitats, where the necessary resources can be supplemented.

A residual population of Amur tigers Panthera tigris altaica probably survives in the eastern Wanda Mountains (EWM) in China, where the main prey species are red deer Cervus elaphus, eastern roe deer Capreolus pygargus and wild boar Sus scrofa ussuricus. We used 53 snow sample plots each containing about 29 km of transects to detect ungulate presence and determined their total density in EWM in 2002 to be 87.9 ± 8.9 kg km⁻². We then applied these data to three published models that predict the relationship between tiger density and prey biomass density to obtain three estimates of tiger carrying capacity in EWM. Existing estimates of tiger density suggest that tigers were below carrying capacity estimates. Relationships between prey density and tiger density from 15 studies indicate a threshold prey biomass of 195 kg km⁻² (CI: 33-433), below which a tiger population cannot be sustained. We therefore concluded that the EWM population of tigers is in peril. We compared densities between the years 2002 and 2008 using comparable data and found that the EWM populations of the three ungulate prey species all experienced decreases of 40-45%, apparently due to intense poaching. This rapid decline in prey density and pervasive threats to tigers and their prey in the EWM demands immediate and effective protection of ungulate and tiger populations from poaching if tigers are to persist and recover.

Precise estimates of abundance and density are crucial for species conservation. For secretive felids, such as leopard cat Prionailurus bengalensis, acquiring such estimates based on conventional methods is difficult. We demonstrated the possibility of individual identification of leopard cats using coat patterns, and estimated their density using photographic capture-recaptures in a small watershed (182 km²) of Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve, Sikkim, India. On comparing the different body parts, we found that hind-quarter had the maximum usability (83.9%) for individual identification. The overall photo-capture rate representing an index of leopard cat relative abundance was calculated as 3.7 ± 1.27 captures/100 trap days. We used both non-spatial and spatially explicit capture- recapture (SECR) approaches to estimate leopard cat abundance and density. Our spatially explicit models estimated leopard cat density as 17 ± 5.33 (maximum-likelihood based approach) and 17.52 ± 5.52 (Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations) individuals/100 km², while in our non-spatial model, density estimates varied from 18.01 to 22.25 individuals/100 km². Camera trap results also indicated that the leopard cat used temperate and subtropical habitats to a large extent. Our study validated the applicability of camera trap based capture-recapture techniques to estimate the density of leopard cat. Therefore, we recommend the use of this technique with appropriate site-specific modifications for population estimation and monitoring of this species throughout its distribution range.

Feedback between population density and demographic parameters often plays a determining role in population dynamics, and it is particularly important in managing exploited or harvested populations. The mountain hare Lepus timidus is a traditional game species, which is hunted in Scotland for sport and population control. However, information about how population parameters respond to changes in population density is lacking. To assess how reproduction and juvenile recruitment change in response to population density, we sampled 189 hares (88 females and 101 males) from 10 independent private hunting estates. We found a significant negative correlation between population density and the proportion of juveniles recruited into the breeding population, along with a significant interaction between population density and sex, which revealed that the proportion of juvenile females recruited decreases more rapidly with population density compared to the proportion of male juveniles. However, we found no evidence of density-dependent fecundity. Our results suggest density-dependent compensation in this species, acting on recruitment, not fecundity, with rates of juvenile recruitment differing between the sexes. We conclude that the significant correlation between population density and juvenile recruitment may provide harvested populations with the potential for compensatory juvenile recruitment, although harvesting rates need to be accurately estimated to avoid the risk of overharvesting.

We isolated Leptospira strains from renal tissue samples of Asiatic red-bellied squirrels Callosciurus erythraeus, captured in Argentina. In December 2008, we captured 34 squirrels in the province of Santa Fe during a short control campaign, which were screened for Leptospira spp. by direct immunofluorescence assays and isolation attempts in renal tissue samples. A prevalence of 38% of Leptospira spp. was obtained by direct immunofluorescence. The isolates, genotyped by the MLVA, were identified as L. interrogans Canicola (N = 2) and L. interrogans Icterohaemorraghiae (N = 1), showing an identical genetic profile to the reference strains Hond Utrech IV (serovar Canicola, serogroup Canicola) and M20 (serovar Copenhageni, serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae), respectively. Our study shows for the first time that the red-bellied squirrel is a renal carrier of Leptospira interrogans and might act as a reservoir of leptospirosis both in native range and areas of introduction within several European countries, Japan and Argentina. The close association of this introduced squirrel species with humans and domestic animals may increase the probability of disease transmission, particularly in favourable environments.

The range and abundance of the pine marten Martes martes and red fox Vulpes vulpes are considered to have increased in the Scottish Highlands in recent decades. In 2009, we resurveyed 11 forests surveyed for predators in 1995, together with an additional five forests. Our survey techniques followed those used in 1995. In all, we used DNA analysis to identify 414 mammal scats, representing 30% of the scats collected and identified in the field as being from either fox or marten. Of these, 77% of scats had been identified correctly by two field observers, with no difference between the individual observers. However, of the scats incorrectly identified, there was a bias towards identifying marten scats as fox scats. We used DNA confirmation to obtain correction formulae for scats identified in the field as fox or martens. The corrected marten sign index had increased 3.9-fold since 1995 and the fox sign index had increased 2.2-fold in the 11 forests surveyed in both years.