Thom, R.; Southard, S., and Borde, A., 2014. Climate-linked mechanisms driving spatial and temporal variations in eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) growth and assemblage structure in Pacific Northwest estuaries, USA.

Using laboratory experiments on temperature and leaf metabolism, and field data sets from Washington, between 1991 and 2013, we developed lines of evidence showing that variations in water temperature, mean sea level, and desiccation stress appear to drive spatial and temporal variations in eelgrass (Zostera marina). Variations in the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and mean sea level (MSL), especially during the strong 1997–2001 El Niño-La Niña event, corresponded with variations in leaf growth rate of an intertidal population. Field studies suggested that this variation was associated with both desiccation period and temperature. Subtidal eelgrass shoot density recorded annually over a 10-year period was lowest during the warm and cool extremes of sea surface temperature. These periods corresponded to the extremes in the ONI. Variations in density of a very low intertidal population in a turbid estuary were explained by both variations in temperature and light reaching the plants during periods of higher MSL. These results show complex interactions between water-level variation, temperature and light as mechanisms regulating variation in eelgrass, which complicates the ability to predict the effects of climate variation and change on this important resource. Because of the extensive wide geographic distribution of eelgrass, its tractability for study, and its responsiveness to climate, this and other seagrass species should be considered useful indicators of the effects of climate variation and change on marine and estuarine ecosystems.

Chen, Q.; Wang, H.; Wang, L.; Tawes, R., and Rollman D., 2014. Predicting the impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-level rise on beach mouse habitat.

Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

Passeri, D.L.; Hagen, S.C.; and Irish, J.L., 2014. Comparison of shoreline change rates along the South Atlantic Bight and Northern Gulf of Mexico coasts for better evaluation of future shoreline positions under sea level rise.

Shoreline change rates established by the USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) (Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 1999; Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 2000), the USGS National Assessment of Shoreline Change (Morton et al., 2004; Morton and Miller, 2005) and erosion rates estimated using the Bruun Rule (Bruun, 1962) are compared along sandy shorelines of the U.S. South Atlantic Bight and Northern Gulf of Mexico coasts. The intent of the study is not to regard one method better than another, but rather to explore similarities and differences between the methods. Based on the comparison, the following recommendations are offered for quantifying future shoreline positions under sea level rise(SLR). In areas where long-term erosion rates correspond well with rates predicted by the Bruun Rule, shoreline retreat can be assumed to be completely attributed to forces related to SLR and the Bruun Rule can be applied to estimate future shoreline positions under SLR scenarios. If long-term erosion rates are higher than the rates predicted by the Bruun Rule, a hybrid approach can be taken to include a factor for background erosion due to influences other than SLR. Lastly, care should be taken when extrapolating shoreline change rates determined by the CVI or National Assessment of Shoreline Change to predict future shoreline positions. CVI rates may be projected when considering extreme future SLR scenarios, as they are typically larger than the long-term historic rates.

Zhao, C.; Ge, J., and Ding, P., 2014. Impact of sea level rise on storm surges around the Changjiang Estuary.

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge around the Changjiang Estuary and the Hangzhou Bay are investigated using a shallow-water circulation model ADCIRC coupled with a spectral wave model SWAN. The validated model is applied to two typical typhoons under three scenarios: 1.0 m SLR, 0.483 m SLR and present sea-level condition. In consideration of interactions of tide, waves and surge, the impact exerted by SLR on tide and waves are also discussed. The migration of the amphidromes generated by SLR causes the co-phase lines to defect relatively counterclockwise near the Changjiang Estuary. The amplitude of tide increases slightly at the inner mouth of the Changjiang River, and more notable increases are presented at the northern part of the Changjiang River Mouth. The amplitude of tide decreases in adjacent areas of the Hangzhou Bay. The wave heights respond to the sea level rise in a non-linear and spatially non-uniform manner. Comparing the maximum wave height between each scenario, the wave height increase is found to be significant in shallow areas due to the increase in water depth. The breaking locations of the wave shift shoreward. The general patterns in wave height change are approximately determined by the typhoon path and topography. As for changes in surge and elevation, time series of water surface curves and peak value distribution are all analyzed. The curves of surges and water elevations accelerate slightly relative to that of the control scenario. The surges are not very sensitive to the SLR and the variations in elevation could mainly attribute changes in tide, with the changing extents ranging from a few to a dozen centimeters. Taking the value of SLR into account, the peak of elevation near shore could experience a significant increase in the future. All the properties respond to sea level rise in a non-linear and spatially non-uniform manner.

Chen, X.; Alizad, K.; Wang, D., and Hagen, S.C., 2014. Climate change impact on runoff and sediment loads to the Apalachicola River at seasonal and event scales.

In this study, potential climate change impacts on runoff and sediment load in Apalachicola River basin in Florida are assessed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrologic model. The observed streamflow and sediment load from 1984 to 1994 are used for the model calibration and validation. The streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients (NSEs) for the simulation and validation periods (1984–1989 and 1990–1994 years) are 0.92 and 0.88, respectively. The sediment NSEs for the simulation and validation periods are calculated to be 0.46 and 0.36, respectively, with excellent description of trend variability. Rainfall data under climate change effects is applied as the calibrated SWAT model input to estimate the streamflow and sediment load change. The rainfall and temperature data is prepared using two regional climate models (RCM); HRM3-HADCM3, and RCM3-GFDL. Results show that the average daily level of streamflow and sediment load will not vary significantly, but the peak flow and peak sediment load will increase dramatically due to the more intense and less frequent rainfall events. The impact of climate change during an extreme rainfall event is also investigated. A storm event with 25-year return period and 24-hour duration in 1991 is taken as the baseline event. Based on the projection using RCM3-GFDL scenario, the streamflow and sediment load may increase by 50% and 89%, respectively.

Bacopoulos, P., and Hagen, S.C., 2014. Dynamic considerations of sea-level rise with respect to water levels and flooding in Apalachicola Bay.

An examination of sea-level rise impacts on water levels and flooding extent in Florida's Apalachicola Bay and the nearby region was carried out using forcing conditions from Hurricane Dennis under multiple sea-level rise scenarios. A comparison of the modeled water levels at the inlets of the bay was conducted to determine if the trend in water levels at the inlets was linear or nonlinear in relation to increasing sea-level rise. Hydrodynamic simulations for five scenarios were performed, including a present-day (control) scenario reflecting current sea levels and four possible future sea-level rise scenarios. Water level distributions and flooding throughout the bay with either dynamic or static sea-level rise were compared, and the effects of nonlinearity in the hydrodynamic responses were measured using a normalized nonlinearity index. This analysis highlights the importance of considering the two-dimensional spatial distribution in water levels when examining the consequences of sea-level rise, as analyses of hydrographs at point locations can overlook important subtleties throughout the domain. The results of this study provide a fuller representation of possible responses of Apalachicola Bay to sea-level rise, taking into account the combined context of water-level nonlinearity and flooding extent.

Huang, W.; Hagen, S.C.; Bacopoulos, P., and Teng, F., 2014. Sea-level rise effects on hurricane-induced salinity transport in Apalachicola Bay.

Salinity is an important indicator for estuarine ecosystem. Estuarine salinity can be affected by hurricane and sea-level rises. In this study, hydrodynamic modeling study has been conducted to investigate the effects of sea-level rise on hurricane-induced salinity in Apalachicola Bay. By using the dataset for the Hurricane Dennis occurred in July, 2005, model simulations were conducted under different sea-level rise scenarios. Results from model simulations show the effects of sea-level rise on the estuarine salinity transport during different phases of the storm surge. Generally, the increase of water level by either storm surge or sea-level rise results in the intrusion of majority saline sea water from the east to the west through East Pass. Salinity at two oyster bars responds to the storm surge and sea-level rise differently because Cat Point is located in the east and Dry Bar is in the west of the river mouth. In Cat Point, sea-level rise can cause substantial increase of salinity because it is located between the river mouth and East Pass. Salinity at the peak of the storm surge reaches 30 ppt even without sea-level rise. While salinity at the end of the storm surge reduces to about 20 ppt under no sea-level rise condition at Cat Point, it substantially increases to 30 ppt in response to a sea-level rise of 0.2 m. However, in Dry Bar, salinity is less sensitive to the sea-level rise and the storm surge. At the peak of the storm surge, salinity in Dry Bar is 30 ppt, 28 ppt, 30 ppt., under SLR 0.2 m, 0.5 m, and 1.2 m, respectively. However, near the end of the storm surge, salinity is 22 ppt, 22 ppt, and 27 ppt under 0.2 m, 0.5 m, and 1.2 m SLR conditions, respectively. This indicates that, after the storm surge, salinity in Dry Bar can recover to the normal range (below 26 ppt) if sea-level rise is less or equal to 0.5 m.

Solomon, J.A.; Donnelly, M.J., and Walters, L.J., 2014. Effects of sea level rise on the intertidal oyster Crassostrea Virginica by field experiments.

Sea level rise predictions for the next century range from 20 to 200 cm. Coupled with climate change-related increases in storm activity and associated alterations to sediment transport, estuaries and the organisms that live in them may be impacted. Along the eastern seaboard and gulf coast of the United States, Crassostrea virginica is an economically and ecologically important estuarine shellfish species. In an effort to understand potential effects of climate change on intertidal Crassostrea virginica, a novel method for manipulating inundation time of intertidal oysters was developed to examine effects of altering daily inundation time on sedimentation, predation, and competition. Called the oyster ladder, this method consists of suspending oyster shell as recruitment substrate at different elevations within the intertidal zone between mean low and mean high water. A six-week experiment was deployed during the peak of the 2011 oyster recruitment season at two sites within Apalachicola Bay, Florida. Data was collected on oyster recruitment, shell length, presence of sessile competitors, and sedimentation. Mean oyster shell length peaked at 95% time inundated, while recruitment peaked at 80% time inundation. Maximum sedimentation occurred at the highest inundation times (95% time inundation). The oyster ladder proved to be an effective tool for manipulating inundation times for C. virginica and suggests that sea level rise will have an effect on abundance, growth and survival of this of intertidal species.

Kim, H.; Son, S.; Montagna, P.; Spiering, B. and Nam, J., 2014. Linkage between freshwater inflow and primary productivity in Texas estuaries: Downscaling effects of climate variability.

The estuaries of Texas are lagoons that lie in a climatic gradient in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Estuaries located in the northeastern part of the Texas coast receive more rainfall than estuaries in the southwestern part, and consequently greater runoff and concomitant freshwater inflow. Extreme inter-annual variability of precipitation caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is another characteristic of the Texas coast. During El Niño periods, salinities in Texas estuaries decrease because of increased precipitation and increased freshwater inflow to the coast. During La Niña periods, salinities increase due to drier climatic conditions and reduced freshwater inflow. The combination of the climatic gradient and temporal variability of freshwater inflow drive changes in the frequency, timing, duration, and magnitude of river flows to coastal waters, which in turn control the salinity, nutrients, organic matter, and sediments in Texas estuaries. Chlorophyll biomass, as an indicator of primary production, was estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from July 2002 to December 2011 for all Texas estuaries. The climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean delivers a cascading signal via freshwater inflow changes to estuaries that effects primary production subsequently. The maximum correlation was found at the 5^th lag (month) with correlation coefficient (ρ) being 0.45 (NIÑO3.4 is fixed as a reference). The combination of the local climatic gradient and quasi-periodic natural variability in ENSO has been influencing estuarine ecosystem dynamics over decadal scales in this region. The present study demonstrates that freshwater inflow is an important driver in maintaining primary productivity of Texas estuaries, which is required to maintain estuarine health and sustainability.

Sun, Z.; Nie, H.; Huang, S.; Huang, S.; Huang, W.; Zhu, L., and Gao, Y., 2014. Effects of sea level rise on coastal reclamation projects in Jiaojiang estuary, China.

In this paper, a series of numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the storm tide characteristics in Jiaojiang estuary and nearshore areas after the proposed cluster reclamation project (from 2011 to 2023) and in different amplitude of sea level rise (SLR) during TC9711 (tropical cyclone Winnie). Special attention is paid on the variations of tidal levels at different locations. Due to reclamation project, It can be found that the maximum tidal levels significantly increase along Niutou Necking-Shanjiaopu section, both banks inside estuary entrance, northern Toumen Harbor and in harbor basin. On the contrary, tidal levels along northern Toumen Harbor, Puba Harbor and southern bank outside entrance decrease clearly. Meanwhile, study on influence of SLR at Haimen Station indicates that impacts of SLR on tidal levels increase as SLR increment grows, appear as periodic variation with the same cycle of tide and bring about maximum variation of tidal levels of 0.382 m and −0.339 m for SLR at 0.6 m. Moreover, investigation of influence of SLR on maximum tidal levels reveals that the maximum tidal levels in domain generally decrease as SLR increases, but those will increase significantly for SLR of 0.03 m and 0.15 m along Sanjiangkou and Niutou Necking. The results are helpful to provide constructive references for disaster prevention and reduction in process of design, construction and completion of reclamation.

Shen, Q.; Gu, F.; Qi, D., and Huang, W., 2014. Numerical study on the flow and sediment variation affected by the sea-level rise in the north passage of the Yangtze estuary.

A three-dimensional, sigma coordinate coastal ocean model, based on unstructured C-grid and semi-implicit finite volume method, is built to study the flow and sediment variation affected by the sea-level rise (SLR) at the north passage of the Yangtze estuary. Firstly, the details of the numerical method used in this model are introduced, including the layout of model variables, the discretization of the governing equations and the semi-implicit method, etc. Then, two test cases are employed to verify the proposal model, including an idealized test case as well as a simulation of the tidal flow and mass transport at the north passage of the Yangtze Estuary. Finally, based on the verified model, a numerical study on the flow and sediment variation affected by the SLR at the north passage of the Yangtze estuary is carried out. The result shows that near the outlet of the Yangtze Estuary deep water channel, the residual currents at the surface and bottom are in opposite directions with seaward flow at the surface and landward near the bottom. The intruding saltwater, together with the stratification near the outlet of the Yangtze Estuary deep water channel, is strengthened by the SLR of 50cm and consequently increases the flow exchange. With the SLR of 50cm. the largest increments of salinity as well as the sediment concentration appears in the upper part of the Yangtze Estuary deep water channel ranging from CS6S to CSWS. It increases the vertical stratification and strengthens landward residual current near the bottom while the seaward residual current is increased at the surface. The high concentration zone of Yangtze Estuary deep water channel moves upstream due to the SLR of 50cm which consequently changes the distribution of channel siltation.

Hong, X.; Huang, W.; Johnson, E.; Lou, S., and Wan, W., 2014. Effects of sea level rise on salinity intrusion in St. Marks River estuary, Florida, U.S.A..

Effects of sea level rise on salinity intrusion in St. Mark River estuary has been investigated by the application of a 3D hydrodynamic model. The estuary receives freshwater inputs from two upstream tributaries, Wakular River and St. Mark River. The model has been calibrated by using the observed data measured in the estuary. Under the sea level rise of 0.85m, numerical modeling under the flow for the 4-month period in 2000 indicate that, the sea level rise can cause substantial increase of salinity near the lower Wakulla River, with the increase of 9.2 ppt for surface salinity and 12.7 ppt for bottom salinity. At mid estuary, surface salinity increases by 5.6 ppt, and bottom salinity increases by 3.8 ppt. Because the existence of freshwater and brackish marshes through much of the Wakulla River, the substantial increase of salinity by sea level rise of 0.85 m may have significant impact on the ecosystem in Wakala River tributary.

Duan, W.; He, B.; Takara, K.; Luo, P.; Hu, M.; Alias, N.E.; Ishihara, M., and Wang Y., 2014. Climate change impacts on wave characteristics along the coast of Japan from 1986 to 2012.

With the effects of the earth's climate change, ocean waves present various change trends in different areas. Using the linear trend method and the Mann-Kendall test, we analyzed the trends of the annual maximum significant wave height and period during the period of 1986–2012 on the basis of the 10 wave monitoring stations along the Sea of Japan coast. The correlation with climate change indexes including SST (sea surface temperature), MEI (Multivariate Enso Index), SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), AOI (Arctic Oscillation Index), PDOI (Pacific Decade Oscillation Index) and NPI (North Pacific Index) were also checked to fully understand the changes of wave characteristics. Generally, the annual maximum significant wave height and period increased at almost all stations along the Sea of Japan from 1986 to 2012. The Sakata station had the largest increase in the annual maximum significant wave height and period, which increased about 49.65 cm (approximately 1.84 cm yr-1) and 0.24 s (approximately 0.009s yr-1) from 1986 to 2012, respectively. The increasing tendency of the wave height and period was more apparent in the northeast areas along the Sea of Japan coast compared to the southwest areas. The annual maximum significant wave height and period had negative relationships with PDOI, SOI, MEI and AOI at most stations, while positive relationships with NPI and SST at most stations.

Chen, Y.; Huang, W., and Xu, S., 2014. Frequency analysis of extreme water levels in east and southeast coasts of China with analysis on effect of sea level rise.

Qiantang bore as well as the storm surge are great disasters for river bank protection at the estuary of Qiantang River. Pearl River estuary is also frequently attacked by strong typhoon storm surge. The risk of damage from storm surge is expected to increase in both estuaries, exacerbated by sea level rise (SLR) and possible climate-induced increases in typhoon intensity and frequency. Adequate estimation on extreme water level will be essential to the coastal flood mitigation for both estuary areas with the effect of climate change. In this study, the popular frequency models Weibull, Lognormal, Gumbel, P-III and GEV are compared on Ganpu station located at the estuary of Qiantang River and Denglongshan station in Guangdong province, the optimal GEV model is recommended. For the risky analysis and management concern induced by the shortage of studied data, the estimated 50 year and 100 year extreme water levels respectively at Ganpu and Denglongshan stations are recommended in this study. Both studied stations located at different estuaries are all type II GEV model as the parameter of GEV distribution are higher than 0. The difference of the parameter and the reason causes the difference in the studied stations are analyzed and discussed in this paper. Furthermore, with the estimated 2.9mm/yr SLR by sea level bulletin of China, effect of SLR in frequency analysis on Denglongshan station is discussed.

Clark II, C.; Nnaji, G.A., and Huang, W., 2014. Effects of El-Nino and La-Nina sea surface temperature anomalies on annual precipitations and streamflow discharges in southeastern United States.

Statistical analysis shows that El Niño and La Niña are partially responsible for the amounts of annual precipitation and annual streamflow discharges in Gulf Atlantic hydrologic unit of Southeast United States. The study is based on 61-year records of precipitation and streamflow discharge stations spread across the region. The cross-correlation coefficients for both the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and precipitation, and SST anomalies and streamflow were calculated after the data series were prewhitened by an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model (2,0,3). The cross-correlations between SST anomalies and both precipitations and streamflow discharges were positively significant. Using statistical relationship established relating SST anomalies with precipitation and streamflow in the area; comparison analyses of observed and filtered data series are performed at locations where there is significant influence of El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitations and streamflow discharges in the region. The degree of influence ENSO has on each hydrologic series hence can be predicted for different water sheds in the area. This can be of immense help for water management strategy and planning in the region.

Cai, Y.; Huang, W.; Teng, F., and Gu, S., 2014. Effects of changing climate on glacier shrinkage and river flow in the Upper Heihe River Basin, China.

Based on observed hydro-meteorological data and Remote Sensing images collected from 1990 to 2010, analysis has been conducted to investigate the effects of changing climate on glacier shrinkage and river flow in the upper Heihe River basin, an inland mountain river basin in China. Observed data indicates that the temperature in the study area shows the increase trend at the annual increase rate of 0.07 Celsius Degree/year. Spatial analysis of glacier coverage indicates that the glacier coverage area shrankby 52.93 km² at the rate of approximately 2.65 km²/year from 1990 to 2010 due to the global climate change. Small glaciers with area less than 1 km² account for over 87 % of the remaining glaciers in 2010, which will accelerate the recession of glaciers. Further analysis of river flows at Zhamashike Station shows the increase trend of the river flow at the 0.4 m³s⁻¹/year. Through comparsion of variation characterisitcs of air temperatues, glaciers and runoff, the relationship between climate change, galciers shrinkage and runoff change is analyzed. It is indicated that the acute long-term loss of glacial storage will intensify water scarcity in the arid basin, notwithstanding the recent increase in runoff due to the melting of glaciers induced by global warming. It is urgent and important for the Heihe River basin to establish reasonable water resources management measures against glacier shrinkage and climate change.

Zhu, F.; Huang, W.; Cai, Y.; Teng, F.; Wang, B., and Zhou, Q., 2014. Development of a river hydrodynamic model for studying surface-ground water interactions affected by climate change in Heihe River, China.

Over the past 50 years, glacier area in Qilian Mountain of the Heihe River basin has decreased by 29.6%, mainly resulting from the climate change. Understanding the interactions of surface and ground water interaction will be very helpful for studying climate-change impact on Hehei River basin. This paper presents the development of one-dimensional river hydrodynamic model for surface and ground water interactions (RHM-SG). Surface-water flow is described by the modified one-dimensional Saint Venant equations, which is solved by Preissmann scheme. The flow exchange between surface and ground water is described by Darcy's equation. Five model validation tests include uniform flow over sloping bed, one flood process, and river flow with interactions of ground water. Model tests demonstrate that the model compares well with analytic solution, and reasonably characterize the interaction between river flow and ground water. The model has also been tested in the application to the middle reach of the Heihe River. By including surface-ground water interactions, the accuracy of model predicted flow substantially improves. The correlation coefficient increases from 0.89 to 0.98, and the root-mean-square reduces from 21.16 m³/s to 8.49 m³/s, respectively.

Xu, L.G.; Zhu, M.L.; He, B.; Wang, X.L.; Zhang Q.; Jiang J.H., and Razahindrabe B.H.N., 2014. Analysis of water balance in Poyang Lake basin and subsequent response to climate change.

The runoff in Poyang Lake Basin has a reversal decreasing phenomenon in 1997. Moreover, recent drought-prone pattern and low-flow events have been a serious threat to the water resource and water security in Poyang Lake in China. The water resource change is affected by regional climate change, human activities and water conservancy projects within the basin. The Poyang Lake and its watershed are selected as study sites to investigate the influence of key driving factors such as precipitation, temperature and water usage. The runoff and water level change of Poyang Lake were explored and analyzed based on the System Dynamic (SD) method. Monthly flow and water depth in lake was simulated and compared with observed values for both calibration periods from 1978 to 1997 and validation periods from1998 to 2007.The results demonstrated that SD method can acquire an ideal performance on basin runoff yielding and water resource exchanging between rivers and lake. Furthermore, 10% decrement and increment of precipitation, temperature and water usage scenario for climate change analysis showed that the proportion of impact from water use, temperature and precipitation is about 1:3:10. The changing trends of water balance in the Poyang Lake Basin are basically consistent with the effect of temperature and precipitation, but due to the function of outflow and smaller impact from the inflow during July to September, the changing trends of water level are different before and after July. Findings of this paper provide an important scientific basis for the development of integrated watershed management measures for water security in Poyang Lake.

Zhou, Z.; Liu, S.; Hua H.; Chen, C.S.; Zhong G.; Lin, H., and Huang, C.W., 2014. Frequency analysis for predicting extreme precipitation in Changxing station of Taihu Basin, China.

Rainfall induced flooding is one of the most severe natural disasters in coastal regions. In recent years, along with global warming and sea level rising, extreme hydrological events, such as extreme precipitation, are of high occurrence. Meanwhile, rapid urbanization makes the urban environment transformed dramatically and results in additional flood ventures. Taihu Basin, located in Yangtze Delta, is the richest basin in China and flood control planning in this region is of high significance. Therefore, precipitation analysis, as a basic work of flood design, should be accurate and precise. In this study, based on precipitation data at Changxing Station of Taihu Basin, precipitation frequency analysis using mixed methods is performed. Two of the most applied distribution models, Pearson-III (P3) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), are investigated. For parameter estimation method of probability distribution functions, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and L-moments (LM) are used. In addition, seeking-matrix curve fitting based on conventional moments (CM) is also investigated to compare the calculation results. The performance of mixed methods is tested by two classical goodness-of-fit tests, Chi-Square test and K-S test. Consequently, GEV distribution model based on LM is evaluated to be the best fitting model for identifying and predicting future precipitation occurrence. So precipitation estimations from different return periods at Changxing Station are identified. This study is a new attempt to precipitation frequency analysis in the stations of Taihu Basin and the result can provide a reference for flood risk and water resource management in Taihu Basin and even in more other regions in China.

Nnaji, G.A.; Huang, W.; Gitau, M.W., and Clark II, C., 2014. Frequency analysis of minimum ecological flow and gage height in Suwannee River, Florida.

Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate minimum ecological flow and gage height for protection of the ecosystem in Suwannee River, Florida, USA. By comparing to observations, results indicate that both Log Pearson Type III and Weibull distributions provide reasonable predictions of low flow frequency curves. However, Log Pearson Type III distribution provides more accurate predictions than Weibull distribution in low flow analysis in Suwannee River. The 7Q10 method, which has been used by United States Geological Service in USA, is defined as the lowest 7-day average flow that occurs on average once every 10 years, which has been used by some water management agencies in USA for river ecological study. Based on 7Q10 method and frequency analysis, the minimum ecological flow and gage height in Suwannee River are proposed for water resources and river ecosystem managements. The study may provide a good reference for minimum ecological flow analysis in other river study sites.

Wang, Y.; He, B.; Herath, S.; Basnayake, S. and Huang, W., 2014. Climate change scenarios analysis in coastal region of Thailand.

The impact of climate change is estimated to be particularly severe in many developing countries, including the coastal zones prone to flooding and drought. As a coastal region, Thailand has been affected by climate change significantly in terms of temperature and rainfall distribution change. In this study, a downscaling study was carried out to identify some climate-related planning parameters for the representative cities in Thailand using the regional climate model. Results indicated that in the study area around the Hat Yai the near future atmosphere temperature will increase about 1 °C to 1.5 °C compared to the present condition. The minimum annual temperature will increase about 0.8 degree from 23 °C to 23.8 °C. It is ranging between 20.8 °C–25 °C. The maximum annual temperature in Hat Yai will increase about 1 degree from 32.6 °C to 33.6 °C. The mean annual temperature will increase about 1 degree from 27.8 °C to 28.8 °C. The temperature will increase largely in summer and rainy season in the future. The near future rainfall is projected to increase in most of seasons, especially during the rainy season which will bring more risk for flood disaster. Furthermore, rainfall pattern and distribution will be also changed in the near future in Songkhla, with more rain to be expected in rainy season.

Zhong, G.H.; Liu, S.G.; Han, C., and Huang, W., 2014. Urban flood mapping for Jiaxing City based on hydrodynamic modeling and GIS analysis.

Under the climate change, extreme precipitation has been increasing dramatically, accompanied by more severe floods. The low-lying coastal areas, in particular, those due to the frequent storm surges, are suffering from heavier floods. Recently, in addition to the traditional engineering measures, researchers are exploring non-engineering measures to mitigate damages caused by flood. Development of flood risk maps which assess the vulnerable zones in the floodable (i.e. flood prone) areas is one of these non-engineering measures. Jiaxing City, a key central city in the Yangtze River Delta Area, China, is the study area in this research. Considering its particular features such as low-lying topography, dense rivers, numerous dyked areas, river flow affected by the tides and intensive human activities, a coupling hydrodynamic model of one-dimensional and two-dimensional from MIKEFLOOD is applied to identify areas prone to flooding events for specific return periods. On the basis of the flood risk analysis, spatial analysis and display functions of Arc GIS, the Flood Risk Map is compiled automatically and flood management system is developed for Jiaxing region. As a flood precautionary measure, it not only alerts the public on flood risk issues and reduces flood risk more efficiently in the identified vulnerable areas, but, also helps relevant authorities to make decisions on spatial planning and development strategies, as well as flood control and disaster relief.